2016 AFL - Round 15

[Cosmogramma]

Luv u Jack

 

[benji21]

Cheers jack
Nails the 4 goals and port 1-39 in the last kick of the game

Also saved those in the high/low for the weekend

 

[Parko31]

2U St Kilda -0.5 second quarter only @$1.93 Saints are 4-9 whilst Suns are 6-7. Suns have lost their last 9 second quarters. Saints have won their last 2.
1U S.Ross/T.Lynch 30d/3goals @$3.20
0.5U Jack Steven/Mav Weller 30d/3goals @$11

 

[demon_fanatic]

any thoughts on the over 171.5 carl/coll at Whill.. i dont think rain/greasy conditions will affect this game too much, dropped from 175.5

 

[free at last]

any thoughts on the over 171.5 carl/coll at Whill.. i dont think rain/greasy conditions will affect this game too much, dropped from 175.5

I calculated the game total to be 177.5...I'm going to wait and see if the opportunity presents to put a "live bet" on if the total drops into the mid 160's and take the over.

 

[benno_]

Ablett over 29.5 disposals (crown) $1.88
Ablett under 31.5 disposals (willhill) $1.88

Ablett to get 30+ on other sites is around $1.40 compared to crowns 29.5+ at $1.88

EDIT: Can get 28.5+ now on Lux

 

[mookieb]

Should be some interesting games today.

I was on GC earlier in the week at +6.5 and H2H. GC has been building over the last couple of weeks as their best squad starts to get on the park. Lynch and Wright should give a very small Saints backline some problems. Saints have been atrocious on the road losing by big margins to WC and Ade following good performances in the preceding weeks. However, excluding these two road performances the Saints have been excellent of late. Could be a good inplay opportunity early to see whether Saints are switched on or not (they were smashed early against Ade and WC) if you don't have any bets down pre-game.

I'm on Syd H2H and the line. I don't think WB has shown an ability to compete with the top 8 teams (only beaten two travelling interstate top 8 teams) plus of course it is very hard to beat Sydney at home. However, the addition of JJ, Easton Wood and Clay Smith means WB are going to be running out with an improved squad.

 

[Parko31]

multi:
Tom Lynch (GC) 5+ Goals
Dan Hannebery 30+ disposals
Adam Treloar 30+ disposals
1.5U @$9

 

[AFLFootyChick]

Multi - 30+/3 goals - 2U - Ablett//Lynch into Hannebery/Franklin = $4.51 (Sportsbet)

 

[Robo87]

multi:
Tom Lynch (GC) 5+ Goals
Dan Hannebery 30+ disposals
Adam Treloar 30+ disposals
1.5U @$9

Hmm, Curnow may tag Treloar, leaving pendles or Sidebum free more.

 

[demon_fanatic]

love tom lynch 1.76 for 2.5 goals plus at luxbet.. considering he's like 1.45 at sportsbet to kick 3, he's only gone under in the wet vs sydney and the realllll huge losses vs ADE/GEEL/WC all others over the mark, also taking Wright 1.5 goals 1.73 his height should trouble them and the heat will be on Lynch he should get a few cheapies.. and ablett 28.5 at 1.72 is hard to knock back.. gunna go little stake on Rosa most disposals too at 15-1 haha.. he's had a couple 30 plus games and hoping Ablett stays around 29-30 lol and he gets lots of unattended ones

 

[DemonZombie_001]

I have some more conservative multis with GC winning, but I took a punt on the below as the Saints defence looks vulnerable and the Saints have not travelled well this year (oh and GC have a pretty good side on the oval now).

• (Crownbet) 2u for GC 40+ @6.50
• (Sportsbet) 1u on GC 40+ @5.80 and Carlton h2h @2.45 for a multi of 14.21

Collingwood have just been awful the last couple of weeks yet go in as favourites (1.53 crownbet vs the blues 2.55). Carlton do have a solid midfield and some excellent defenders/rebounders and have been playing with a real desire. I probably missed something here but Carlton looks too good to pass up here.

 

[demon_fanatic]

I have some more conservative multis with GC winning, but I took a punt on the below as the Saints defence looks vulnerable and the Saints have not travelled well this year (oh and GC have a pretty good side on the oval now).

• (Crownbet) 2u for GC 40+ @6.50
• (Sportsbet) 1u on GC 40+ @5.80 and Carlton h2h @2.45 for a multi of 14.21

Collingwood have just been awful the last couple of weeks yet go in as favourites (1.53 crownbet vs the blues 2.55). Carlton do have a solid midfield and some excellent defenders/rebounders and have been playing with a real desire. I probably missed something here but Carlton looks too good to pass up here.

yeh I think people are overreacting to pies win last week, FREO WERE AWFUL.. and Carlton were ok vs Gws for a fair while!! also think their defenders can hold all those talls and feel Carlton have more enthusiasm and system/run off half back to again win here

 

[eatpies]

2U St Kilda -0.5 second quarter only @$1.93 Saints are 4-9 whilst Suns are 6-7. Suns have lost their last 9 second quarters. Saints have won their last 2.
1U S.Ross/T.Lynch 30d/3goals @$3.20
0.5U Jack Steven/Mav Weller 30d/3goals @$11

Tailed Jack Steven/Mav Weller 30d/3goals @$11

 

[freo_leo29]

Levi Greenwood Most tackles group A @3 Tabtouch
Has been a tackling machine over the past 4 weeks whilst tagging, saluted for me last week and these odds are much better then at sportsbet so i will jump on again

 

[TI KING]

St Kilda SU @2.00 1u
Ablett 30+ Disposals @ 2.00 2u

 

[Parko31]

Hmm, Curnow may tag Treloar, leaving pendles or Sidebum free more.

hmm hope not

 

[The_Big_Ship]

Feeling a draw this week, thinking Mlebourne Adelaide.

20 @ 51

 

[the_big_sav]

kennedy/buddy @ 2.45
mitchell/buddy @ 2.80
hannerbery/buddy@ 2.15
parker/buddy @ 4.60

buddy 4+ @ 2.20
buddy 5+ @ 3.90

buddy 1st goal e/w @ 7.00 and 2.50
buddy 2nd goal @ 7.00

syd -14.5 tts o170.5 @ 3.70

all sportsbet

 

[the_big_sav]

I calculated the game total to be 177.5...I'm going to wait and see if the opportunity presents to put a "live bet" on if the total drops into the mid 160's and take the over.

i dont see carlton getting over 70-75. id be thinking unders

 

[the_big_sav]

kennedy/buddy @ 2.45
mitchell/buddy @ 2.80
hannerbery/buddy@ 2.15
parker/buddy @ 4.60

buddy 4+ @ 2.20
buddy 5+ @ 3.90

buddy 1st goal e/w @ 7.00 and 2.50
buddy 2nd goal @ 7.00

syd -14.5 tts o170.5 @ 3.70

all sportsbet

woop woop nearly broke even already after 1 buddy goal

 

[mookieb]

I have some more conservative multis with GC winning, but I took a punt on the below as the Saints defence looks vulnerable and the Saints have not travelled well this year (oh and GC have a pretty good side on the oval now).

• (Crownbet) 2u for GC 40+ @6.50
• (Sportsbet) 1u on GC 40+ @5.80 and Carlton h2h @2.45 for a multi of 14.21

Collingwood have just been awful the last couple of weeks yet go in as favourites (1.53 crownbet vs the blues 2.55). Carlton do have a solid midfield and some excellent defenders/rebounders and have been playing with a real desire. I probably missed something here but Carlton looks too good to pass up here.

Good work on GC.

I'm a little surprised that Collingwood have firmed so much into $1.56. Carlton beat them earlier in the year and have better form over the duration of the season. Collingwood smashed an insipid Freo, but before that it was big losses to Port and Melbourne. Line at -10.5 looks appealing.

 

[the_big_sav]

rolled buddy 2nd goal winnings into

pies -9.5/tgs u172.5 @ 3.55

pendles/cloke @ 5.40
pendles/moore @ 6.40
side/cloke @ 8.50
side/moore @ 10

cloke 3+ @ 3.00
moore 3+ @ 3.60
cloke 4+ @ 6.60
moore 4+ @ 8.50

all sportsbet

 

[mookieb]

Forgot to post multis:

SB - WC, PA, GC, Syd, Ade
SB - WC, PA, Carl, Syd, Ade
WH - Syd -17.5, Port, Ade, WC 40+

 

[the_big_sav]

buddy 3.4

kennedy 26
hannerbery 28
parker 24