2016 AFL - Round 18

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free at last said:
Anyone liking the Suns at -9.5 pts?GC have Lynch and Wright who will cause our back six big problems IMO,which should be enough to cover the -9.5pts.

I think we'll be without pav,Barlow and ballas too.
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Yes! i agree. The Suns are without two star mid-fielders, but on their home ground there's enough talent up forward to get the score on the board. They've been pretty good at home in recent weeks. Fremantle have their own injury issues and Pav won't play. It would be his 350th game if he did. The Dockers won't let that milestone go down at Metricon. They'll rest him and wait for the following week (against Sydney) at Domain. The -9.5 line looks a good thing.
 

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OhhhhhCyril said:
Anybody else think the pies are at an attractive price on Friday night. Didn't get a chance to see then play on the crows, but can't be backing North right now.
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They played pretty well. Their defence and pressure was top class. I've already backed them.
 
G'day guys, new to punting. AFL is so much better with some cash on the line! Agree with the consensus on adelaide this week, they're the better team. I know Pies are popular but reckon North line is a good bet. Pies are 4-0 ATS last 4 and North's deficiencies have been well documented, but they're still easily the better team imo. They should cover a goal (if they can kick straight). Also rolling with...

Swans -50.5 (Carlton can't score and Swans have a good defense. Plus the Swans after an ATS loss this year are 5-0)
Saints +20.5 / Under 170.5 (Saints win is good value for mine with Stringer out)
Demons +38.5 (Eagles 8-1 ATS at home but vs who? I'll take the demons off a loss who are also 5-0 this year after an ATS loss)
Tigers +40.5 (Too many points)
and Overs in all the Sunday games.

We'll see how it goes! Cheers
 
Gift said:
North could win easily since its at Etihad, but I don't get how they are easily the better team at present. Reasons?
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Just think they've been a bit unlucky lately. Ok they've gone 0-5 and 1-4 ATS since they smashed Richmond but they had injuries to key players in that Geelong game and probably should've won against the Hawks (6 more scoring shots). Another 6 day break and they then got flogged by Adelaide in the 2nd half, but the schedule may have started to take its tole. Yes they lost pretty soundly to West Coast after the bye and came in flat vs Port in the 1st quarter (but ended up having more scoring shots by the way), I look at the season as a whole and think they're still the better team. Obviously I'm banking on them improving their utterly shite kicking recently, which overall they rank 9th in, just ahead of Collingwood. They've beaten some good consistent teams in Adelaide and the Bulldogs. Collingwood have had a handful of good quarters this year but to me, North have shown they're the more reliable side. This smells like a pies let down to me.
 
TheScream said:
Just think they've been a bit unlucky lately. Ok they've gone 0-5 and 1-4 ATS since they smashed Richmond but they had injuries to key players in that Geelong game and probably should've won against the Hawks (6 more scoring shots). Another 6 day break and they then got flogged by Adelaide in the 2nd half, but the schedule may have started to take its tole. Yes they lost pretty soundly to West Coast after the bye and came in flat vs Port in the 1st quarter (but ended up having more scoring shots by the way), I look at the season as a whole and think they're still the better team. Obviously I'm banking on them improving their utterly shite kicking recently, which overall they rank 9th in, just ahead of Collingwood. They've beaten some good consistent teams in Adelaide and the Bulldogs. Collingwood have had a handful of good quarters this year but to me, North have shown they're the more reliable side. This smells like a pies let down to me.
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I don't disagree with what you're saying, but it appears from the outside that North are getting worse and worse. Hence they are no longer playing like that reliable side and I would be surprised if their form can turn around with a simple flick of the switch. It's going to take time and they may have a few more losses before their form suddenly begins heading in an upward trend.

They are clearly affected by injuries at the moment and with their poor depth they are seriously struggling. Their older players can no longer handle the load of a full season but those grandpas haven't been afforded the luxury to be rested due to all the injuries North are experiencing.

I can't see North improving on their effort against Port Adelaide in terms of work ethic, but they SHOULD be able to improve on their conversion in front of goal which MAY see them get the four points against Collingwood. I thought in general play North broke even and perhaps even slightly got the better of Port, but it was poor goal kicking that cost them.

Friday night should be a ripper contest between two teams playing at a very similar level of footy right now.
 
TheScream said:
Just think they've been a bit unlucky lately. Ok they've gone 0-5 and 1-4 ATS since they smashed Richmond but they had injuries to key players in that Geelong game and probably should've won against the Hawks (6 more scoring shots). Another 6 day break and they then got flogged by Adelaide in the 2nd half, but the schedule may have started to take its tole. Yes they lost pretty soundly to West Coast after the bye and came in flat vs Port in the 1st quarter (but ended up having more scoring shots by the way), I look at the season as a whole and think they're still the better team. Obviously I'm banking on them improving their utterly shite kicking recently, which overall they rank 9th in, just ahead of Collingwood. They've beaten some good consistent teams in Adelaide and the Bulldogs. Collingwood have had a handful of good quarters this year but to me, North have shown they're the more reliable side. This smells like a pies let down to me.
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Be careful of cherry picking stats. You point out scoring inaccuracy vs the Hawks but don't mention it vs the Crows. If the Crows had been more accurate it would have been a 100 point demolition and people would be even more pessimistic about them even if they had scraped by the hawks.
 
X_box_X said:
I don't disagree with what you're saying, but it appears from the outside that North are getting worse and worse. Hence they are no longer playing like that reliable side and I would be surprised if their form can turn around with a simple flick of the switch. It's going to take time and they may have a few more losses before their form suddenly begins heading in an upward trend.

They are clearly affected by injuries at the moment and with their poor depth they are seriously struggling. Their older players can no longer handle the load of a full season but those grandpas haven't been afforded the luxury to be rested due to all the injuries North are experiencing.

I can't see North improving on their effort against Port Adelaide in terms of work ethic, but they SHOULD be able to improve on their conversion in front of goal which MAY see them get the four points against Collingwood. I thought in general play North broke even and perhaps even slightly got the better of Port, but it was poor goal kicking that cost them.

Friday night should be a ripper contest between two teams playing at a very similar level of footy right now.
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Yeah can see your point... Injuries are improving for them though, they didn't lose anyone last week. Obviously still missing Higgins, McDonald and Jacobs but most of the team's there. Hopefully Wells and Waite can play better than they did last week cause i'll be on North.
 

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Vhaluus said:
Be careful of cherry picking stats. You point out scoring inaccuracy vs the Hawks but don't mention it vs the Crows. If the Crows had been more accurate it would have been a 100 point demolition and people would be even more pessimistic about them even if they had scraped by the hawks.
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True, though I think they were in that game in the first half. Kind of giving them the benefit of the doubt for now. If they lose this week then happy to eat my slice of humble pie
 
TheScream said:
Yeah can see your point... Injuries are improving for them though, they didn't lose anyone last week. Obviously still missing Higgins, McDonald and Jacobs but most of the team's there. Hopefully Wells and Waite can play better than they did last week cause i'll be on North.
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Plus Wood and Wright out. Waite and Wells coming back from injuries. Dal Santo and Swallow carrying niggles
 
TheScream said:
True, though I think they were in that game in the first half. Kind of giving them the benefit of the doubt for now. If they lose this week then happy to eat my slice of humble pie
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Only because of accuracy.

The 1/2 time score was 4.13 to 6.5
 
You can make a solid case for the pies to win too,

-have a solid record against the roos
- coming off better form in the last 2 weeks against 2 better sides to north
- can play a side thats injury free compared to north who are struggling to get 22 matchfit

I backing the pies SU at $2.50, a little pissed i didnt take them at their price of $3's from last week but i thought a crows blowout would of pushed their price out a few more cents
 
Waite hasn't done full training this week and he's said to be pretty sore. Majak Daw might be named, but even with him, he rolled his ankle two weeks ago and had little impact in the VFL last week. North either have injured players out, or injured, tired and out-of-form players in. They can't win games like that. Fasolo might be back for the Pies too. They're good value against a team who's desperately clinging on to eighth spot. North are carrying all the pressure going in to this game. The teams nipping at their heels (and I think it's really only Port with an outside chance) have nothing to lose, and they'll play that way.
 
Average score against North at Etihad this season is 85.8 with the majority of these games North at full strength.I would not be considering any of Collingwoods mcg scores at all and have not played at Etihad by memory this season.
The pies are a good chance to beat North and if so will score and need to score more than 86
 
Collingwood went massive against the Bulldogs at Etihad in the NAB, and the Bulldogs treated that game as a full dress rehearsal.
 
chrisdon16 said:
Surely you're not serious. There's no way they played a practice match anywhere near a premiership standard or ferocity.
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Looks like the bookies have caught on that the weather forecast in Adelaide for Sunday is looking windy & wet.Game total 170.5 pts.

BOM is forecasting cumulative rainfall totals of 20-40mm around Adelaide and 40-60mm on the ranges.
 
free at last said:
Looks like the bookies have caught on that the weather forecast in Adelaide for Sunday is looking windy & wet.Game total 170.5 pts.

BOM is forecasting cumulative rainfall totals of 20-40mm around Adelaide and 40-60mm on the ranges.
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Still 173.5 at 365

Sent from my SM-G900I using Tapatalk
 

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2016 AFL - Round 18

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