2016 AFL - Round 8

[Mudeo]

Ziebell 6.25 to get 30 possessions or over with TAB. Had 28 last week and playing a much weaker opposition this week.

Seems overs to me.

$7.4 on Sportsbet

 

[Lensen]

last got 30 in 2012, so he's due

 

[chrisdon16]

Getting on the cats tonight.
1U on Geelong -1.5
1U on Geelong 1-39

 

[Oraaaaazio]

last got 30 in 2012, so he's due

like your reasoning, tailed

 

[X_box_X]

Can't wait to get on the Vince, Jones and Viney unders this week. I've been doing this the last couple of weeks to opposition Bulldogs midfielders and it has been quite profitable. All season long had you got on those markets you'd be snarling.

 

[AFLFootyChick]

Can't wait to get on the Vince, Jones and Viney unders this week. I've been doing this the last couple of weeks to opposition Bulldogs midfielders and it has been quite profitable. All season long had you got on those markets you'd be snarling.

Jones and Viney are up on Sportsbet already. No Vince.

 

[csnody]

Getting on the cats tonight.
1U on Geelong -1.5
1U on Geelong 1-39

I thought you only ever did totals. Definitely not tailing you on this bet

 

[chrisdon16]

I thought you only ever did totals. Definitely not tailing you on this bet

Having a crack on a few lines this week. On GWS -55.5 too. If they lose, totals only

 

[Navyblues83]

If Danger and Selwood go bezerk tonight cats can win... Laird is a huge out still... Think crows though still will win by 3-4 goals. This is a kitchen sink game for them

 

[benno_]

Hawks, Swans, Port, Bulldogs, Eagles
@3.60 (SB Special)

 

[freo_leo29]

$450 Stephen Coniglio 30+@2.25 TAB
$550 Stephen Coniglio U30.5@1.85 Unibet

$10ish win each way and the chance for a small middle, there wasn't many options this week, the books seemed to have similar odds

 

[mookieb]

5-5 +.5U


now i know i said a play like this only comes around once every 3 years last week with hawthorn but i feel just as good about this play for Friday night.
Now i have no inside information because i have no friends in Adelaide but 4 or so years ago my girlfriend left me for a man who drives a mercedez c63, he is pretty good looking and has nice muscles, lets call him Derek, anyway she said there was nothing i could offer her that could match what derek could offer her, what broke my heart the most was that she said she was so embarrassed to be seen with me in my daihatsu charade.

I'M LEAVING YOU (THE BREAK UP)

i was really depressed for a long time, could barely get out of bed.. the only muscle i had was the muscle to jack myself off, and so i got myself in a really bad rut, staying in my bath robe all day, eating ice cream out of the tub, just watching the footy. I had deleted my ex off FB because every time i saw a picture of her i just got really really down and then ended up having a rub just to take my mind off her. So one day i'm strolling through FB just wasting my life away and my friend likes a picture on dereks FB and it's one of him and my ex and they are at potato head in bali drinking cocktails and it manages to pop up on mine and at this time i had been listening to this youtube podcast of joe rogan on depression and hes telling me just get up and go for a run and do 10 push ups and it was then i got out of my bath robe and put on my old footy shorts and went for a run, it actually felt good, i had no idea where i was running to but i just felt you know fk this derek... why can't i be derek?? why should i be feeling sorry for myself... i dont need my ex.. we can all be dereks... we just need to stop feeling sorry for our selves... all of us on the big footy punting board can be balls deep in some upper class sugar walls. So i put a picture up of derek on my whiteboard and it motivated me to train hard and be the best i can be... i was pissed off, revenge was a huge factor.. i had this mentality that i was going to show them, i wanted to show my ex that that shallow vapid bitch would be sorry for leaving me and she wouldnt know what she was missing out on.

NOBODY LOVES ADELAIDE

sorry for the dear diary now back to the game... Adelaide won't go on record saying this and both parties will play it down "ah yeah just another player wearing the opposition guernsey" "yeaaahh ahhh nahhh just another match... treat it the same as any other match" AHHAHAHAHAHAHAHA it's so sad to see how robotic australian footballers have become... but i can assure you every crows player would be super motivated coming into this game.. look for the leaders and contested ball winners (Sloane, Thompson, Tex is due a big game) to really step up and the role players to really step up with the help of the crowd..as tupac said... revenge is the sweetest dish next to getting pussy. Look at the history of all the people that have left Adelaide... Gunston, tippett etc etc, everyone thinks they can just drop their dacks and take a dump on their chest but adelaide are a proud football club. They are workman like, they get the job done, they aren't as shitty as my daihatsu charade and they aren't as fancy as Derek's Mercedez... but they go alright like a Toyota Camry. Paddy's reason for leaving was really piss weak if i can remember? didn't his wife make it? paddy has literally taken a dump on their chest. Now players changing teams is becoming more common place in the AFL especially with free agency coming about but this was the biggest free agency signing since Buddy. This year Adelaide have definitely shown they can do without him, and on Friday they will show him that personally. Expect the Toyota Camry to put the petal to the metal and crash and bash into the fancy mercedez.

BOGUS UMPIRING

How many dumps on a chest can a team take? Adelaide definitely should of won the game against hawthorn but they couldn't close it, a very suspect call right at the end to give the hawks the game. Now last week... troy pannell giving the bulldogs the game and then he has the audacity to tap the package on his backside.

Adelaide don't get too many Friday night games but this game will be huge for the city, look for adelaide to make a statement at home against geelong. I love betting teams playing their grand final, i have no doubt adelaide would of circled this game at the start of the year. Last year we saw the bulldogs destroy giants at etihad in spite of Ryan Griffin.

LINE UPS

I see pretty even match ups across the board, perhaps a stronger midfield for Geelong but a more potent attack for Adelaide. Talia should do a job on hawkins. I guess whoever wins the contested ball and can get good service into the forwards should have the best chance.

SCHEDULE

Adelaide have come off two close loses away in the last 3 weeks, games they could have definitely won. If adelaide lose this game they fall down to the middle of the pack, they really need to solidy their 5-6 spot, if they lose this game they would be 1-3 in the last month... Geelong are cruising at the moment, they can definitely afford to drop this game, 6-2 is still very good shape for the top 2, they also have collingwood next week which would be a gimme. This game is a real chance for adelaide to string some wins together with Gold Coast coming up next week. Adelaide definitely need to win this game more then Geelong.

The ODDS and the play

essentially a pick em, $1.92 for them to win the game, ($2.55 for 1-39 if you like extra spice in your curry) decent odds for a team that is motivated, coming off a bogus loss, playing with revenge, at home, on a friday night, looking to make a statement. I also expect adelaide to start well.

1U adelaide SU $1.92
1U adelaide 1Q $1.90

Best of luck if you choose to tail.

If adelaide lose then they are pretty much letting geelong knock on their door, walk in without anyone opening it, drop their dacks, climb on the kitchen counter and take a dump on it... and I can live with that if thats what it takes to find out who adelaide really are.

I agree with the above. In the context of Dangerfield and their season this is a very, very important game. Based solely on form and team matchups I would have a lean to Geelong, but the motivational factors and a significant home ground advantage has me leaning to Adelaide in a close 1 or 2 goal win. I'm somewhat worried that Geelongs midfield will be too strong, but you can counter that with Adelaide's potent attack. They should win the ruck and Talia on Hawkins might leave Geelong a bit skinny on players to kick a winning score.

If I was to look for comparison games - Geelong lost by 13 points on the road to a top 8 team in GWS and Adelaide defeated Sydney at home a few weeks ago. To me Sydney talent wise are comparable with Geelong.

Will be betting with SB where I expect some lead changes. Bet 365 have this as one of their promo games and I will probably be looking towards Geelong at the line in the 4th where they have been killing teams. Might have a small dabble on the Adelaide / Geelong HT / FT double. Also Ade/Ade/Ade/Geel might hold some promise at 18's (Adelaide are fast starting and Geelong very good finishing).

 

[benno_]

Bonus bet on Betts FGS @10.50

 

[The_Big_Ship]

Gee o 15.5
Ess +52.5
Fre +20.5
GWS 1-39
Bris o 15.5
Rich
Port
Mel +39.5
StK +44.5

5 @ 2011.91


Cameron FGS - 27 @ 21

 

[ash_1050]

2U Geelong SU

 

[chrisdon16]

What a game this is, having said that, Geelong should be 3-4 goals up

 

[csnody]

Geelong are all over it tonight. But crows have that fight in them.

 

[targett]

What about the big Text ....He means business tonight

 

[csnody]

What about the big Text ....He means business tonight

Tex being a real captain tonight. All he has to do is drop Dangerfield and we win the game regardless of score.

 

[chrisdon16]

3.1 to 3.10

 

[csnody]

Danger can't handle the pressure even when it's not there.

 

[targett]

The Crows are right in this game

 

[apolis]

The Crows are right in this game

Mostly thanks to Jed Bews.

 

[chrisdon16]

5.1 to 5.13. 16 inside 50's to 30. Cats could and should be at least 25-30 pts up, but at least we have a good game to watch.

 

[Hawkies]

5.1 to 5.13. 16 inside 50's to 30. Cats could and should be at least 25-30 pts up, but at least we have a good game to watch.

If a team scores 5 scoring shots in a row, they win 80% of the time. The odds are in the cats favour after the opening 5 mins