AFL 2017 - AFL Finals Week2

[balmainforever]

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Geelong |$3.00|$3.12|$2.90|$3.05|$3.20|$3.00
\Sydney |$1.40|$1.37|$1.40|$1.45|$1.36|$1.40
\|line:**.5|line:16.5|line:15.5|line:16.5|line:17.5|line:16.5
\total score:|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|160.5|***.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\G-W Sydney |$1.40|$1.48|$1.45|$1.44|$1.40|$1.45
\West Coast |$3.00|$2.67|$2.70|$2.90|$3.00|$2.75
\|line:**.5|line:14.5|line:14.5|line:16.5|line:16.5|line:15.5
\total score:|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|164.5|***.5

ODDS AT 23.15 ON 9/9/17

 

[AFLFootyChick]

I don't mind Geelong at those juicy odds. They'll be pumped up after dishing up a disgraceful performance against Richmond. Worth a few dollars IMO. I can't see their odds staying at the $3 mark so I got on early. Hoping for the 24 points up scenario

 

[langdon19]

Geelong vs Syd U165.5 1 unit LB

 

[Oraz]

Hi off topic
but does anyone follow the VFL?
Thinking about loading up on port melbourne but i don't know much about the game

 

[AFLFootyChick]

Hi off topic
but does anyone follow the VFL?
Thinking about loading up on port melbourne but i don't know much about the game

Oraz, you have got to step back and just STOP! You can't "load up" on a VFL game if you don't know much about it. Yeah, it's a 50/50 shot, but you've been on the wrong end of that 50/50 for too long now, and you're chasing lost money and betting on results that are a throw of the dart - at best. Someone asked your location earlier. If someone here lives near you, maybe catch up for a drink and have a talk in person. If someone reaches out, grab the opportunity, for your own good.

 

[balmainforever]

Hi off topic
but does anyone follow the VFL?
Thinking about loading up on port melbourne but i don't know much about the game

Never back anything you don't have enough knowledge of.
Leave it alone.

 

[Oraz]

Knew i should of loaded up on port melbourne. Don't know why i listened to you guys. WOuld of wiped off some of the deficit i'm in.

 

[rOdGe]

Knew i should of loaded up on port melbourne. Don't know why i listened to you guys. WOuld of wiped off some of the deficit i'm in.

You wouldn't have this deficit if you listened to everyone's advice countless times given to you here for months now. Nothing against you but you really have to revise this reckless strategy your rolling with.

 

[langdon19]

Knew i should of loaded up on port melbourne. Don't know why i listened to you guys. WOuld of wiped off some of the deficit i'm in.

If you listened to me a few weeks back you'd have wiped off some deficit, can't have it both ways.

 

[SM]

Knew i should of loaded up on port melbourne. Don't know why i listened to you guys. WOuld of wiped off some of the deficit i'm in.

No you shouldn't have. Just pull your head in, get some help and take a break. Start again with small bets of $10 or multis and have some fun rather than stressing about the deficit. If you're able to function, eat, live etc. then the deficit is not the end of the world. Burning through every single dollar you have chasing some target will not end well.

 

[AFLFootyChick]

Knew i should of loaded up on port melbourne. Don't know why i listened to you guys. WOuld of wiped off some of the deficit i'm in.

Easy to say it now the game is over. They only pulled away from Footscray in the last quarter. In future, don't ask for advice or opinions if you're so sure of your bets, and certainly don't blame anyone here for swaying you one way or the other. At the end of the day, it's your decision to bet, and your decision what/who to bet on.

 

[Dan26]

Knew i should of loaded up on port melbourne. Don't know why i listened to you guys. WOuld of wiped off some of the deficit i'm in.

The reason you're a hopeless gambler is because you are chasing losses and have no idea what gambling actually is.

Being a successful punter means taking odds where the true real-life probability is higher than what the bookies are offering. And you never EVER bet unless this is the case. Ever.

You just throw thousands of dollars on idiotic multis and teams you think are a chance of winning. EVERY TEAM is a chance of winning. So what? All that matters in gambling is the probability, and is this real-life probability better than the bookies odds?

If you understand that, you can win at sports gambling.

 

[Oraz]

Aright thanks all for the advice.

I'm down roughly 9-10k. I just cant see a plausible way of winning this back? Just say i return to my old ways and punt properly with unit sizes and strategies it will take me years to win it back. I could use unit sizes of $300 but that's pushing it.
I want to start fresh and use unit sizes of $100 but it would take so long to reduce the deficit.

Do you think i should quit or go back to my strategic betting (which i used to be successful) even though it will take a long time to reduce the deficit?

 

[balmainforever]

Aright thanks all for the advice.

I'm down roughly 9-10k. I just cant see a plausible way of winning this back? Just say i return to my old ways and punt properly with unit sizes and strategies it will take me years to win it back. I could use unit sizes of $300 but that's pushing it.
I want to start fresh and use unit sizes of $100 but it would take so long to reduce the deficit.

Do you think i should quit or go back to my strategic betting (which i used to be successful) even though it will take a long time to reduce the deficit?

If you want to continue to gamble, you firstly need to forget about what you've lost recently.
Start afresh and bet sensible units and stay in control. If you don't think you can stay in control whilst gambling, seek professional help and think about stopping

 

[Jugada]

Stop betting all together. There is no evidence to suggest you were ever a good punter or had any edge over the market even with bankroll management. Even with all these losses you still suffer with an inflated sense of your own ability (like most losing punters)

Its clear as day you will never ever be a successful gambler so just stop the bleeding now or be happy with losing the bets you place

 

[mookieb]

Aright thanks all for the advice.

I'm down roughly 9-10k. I just cant see a plausible way of winning this back? Just say i return to my old ways and punt properly with unit sizes and strategies it will take me years to win it back. I could use unit sizes of $300 but that's pushing it.
I want to start fresh and use unit sizes of $100 but it would take so long to reduce the deficit.

Do you think i should quit or go back to my strategic betting (which i used to be successful) even though it will take a long time to reduce the deficit?

Hmmm you can either bet strategically to potentially become a winner from now on or use massive bets on multis or bets on games in the VFL where you have absolutely no edge whilst on massive tilt.

Touch choice.

 

[HumanMeatball]

While I'm not an addict in terms of id never bet what I don't have, I wouldn't mind some suggestions on bankroll strategies for a starting amount of something small say $100, as my issue is when I win I struggle to walk away. E.g. Was about $250 up early today, lost 95% of it then won $200 back. Any response appreciated

 

[iluvparis]

While I'm not an addict in terms of id never bet what I don't have, I wouldn't mind some suggestions on bankroll strategies for a starting amount of something small say $100, as my issue is when I win I struggle to walk away. E.g. Was about $250 up early today, lost 95% of it then won $200 back. Any response appreciated

Honestly if your bank is $100 you should be betting $1-2 per bet.

 

[HumanMeatball]

Honestly if your bank is $100 you should be betting $1-2 per bet.

My banks a lot more then that it's about 1.5k at the moment. Was thinking of starting with $100 or so and seing how I go

 

[Sabbathen]

You can have the biggest bank/smallest unit size - won't matter a bit unless you have discipline. For the average punter discipline is the most difficult thing to master. If you can't be disciplined with your betting, stick to a system, only take the best prices etc., and the majority of people can't, then you will lose.
On the other hand, if you can accept that fact and still want to punt for a bit of fun, the best thing you can do is learn to walk away when you have a loss and not try and chase it. At least you will stretch your bankroll a bit further.

 

[Russian Demon]

To be honest, I know I'm not a good punter. I bet with what I'm willing to lose.

My advice for you folk who are trying to make money is just stop. If you've got a system and it works for you, no problem. But blokes like Oraz would be better off spending the hours of research required working at McDonalds and getting a tangible win.

 

[Macpotata]

My banks a lot more then that it's about 1.5k at the moment. Was thinking of starting with $100 or so and seing how I go

No. As Paris Lane said for example if you had $100 you bet 1-2 dollars per bet. That's 1 to 2 percent of your bank roll. If you have $1500, you'd bet 15 to 30 dollars per bet. If your bank roll increases then so does your unit bets which are still 1-2 percent per bet.

$100 per bet isn't a smart strategy.

edited - sorry may have misinterpreted. You have 1500, but want to try using a bank roll of $100. My apologies in advance if this is the case.

 

[HumanMeatball]

No. As Paris Lane said for example if you had $100 you bet 1-2 dollars per bet. That's 1 to 2 percent of your bank roll. If you have $1500, you'd bet 15 to 30 dollars per bet. If your bank roll increases then so does your unit bets which are still 1-2 percent per bet.

$100 per bet isn't a smart strategy.

edited - sorry may have misinterpreted. You have 1500, but want to try using a bank roll of $100. My apologies in advance if this is the case.

Yeah second part is what I mean. I have 1500 but want to use a bankroll of $100 or so dollars and build it up.

 

[Macpotata]

Yeah second part is what I mean. I have 1500 but want to use a bankroll of $100 or so dollars and build it up.

Good idea. Maintain discipline.

 

[HumanMeatball]

Good idea. Maintain discipline.

So you'd suggest 1-2 dollar bets in this circumstance?