AFL 2017 - AFL Round 14

[Spacedog]

1.5U Walker vs Betts DT - Walker
1U total points Under 190
2U Laird over 107.5 supercoach
2U Sloane under 114.5 DT

1.5U Walker vs Betts DT - Walker W
1U total points Under 190 W
2U Laird over 107.5 supercoach L
2U Sloane under 114.5 DT W

Profit of about .75U not bad. Glad I didnt have anything on Adelaide

 

[maskmcgee]

WHose laughing now?

My 8u on Sydney @ 1.45 is looking great now as i predicted hooker is out

Everyone who got on the Swans at $1.60 earlier in the week because we wouldn't win regardless.

 

[ricardogp]

Love the Roos/Dogs game for the 24 lead promo. Seems like the perfect game for it with the stars aligning here for a very decent chance of a North 24 point lead then Dogs win. Underdog at nearly $3 odds who often start well but fade and have blown multiple big leads this year vs the favourite who should win but are the worst ranked 1st quarter team in the league who start terribly but can finish quite strong. Jumping on North with the promo and then betting on dogs elsewhere.

Not sure if anyone has already suggested this, but combine it with Ladbrokes Bet Blast - $2 for the Bulldogs.

Unfortunately only $25 max.

 

[maskmcgee]

Compiled some interesting data, if you put $5 on the underdog in every match this season so far you would have lost $330 in losing bets but won back $680.25 including stakes. TAB data from first post in each round's thread.

Did that this round you'd only be $2 down after just one game.

 

[mookieb]

I hope you understand what variance is. There will also be a period of time when all the favourites will cover for half a season straight. And then people will talk about how imbalanced the AFL is yadayadayada. All this underdogs covering is just a period of variance.

I think the difference is the closeness of the league. If you consider that the Hawks are the 17th rated team and can beat the equal premiership favourite minus O'Meara, Stratton, Frawley, Gibson and Rioli away from home. Last year there was a multitude of bad teams including Ess, Bris, GC, Carl and plenty of young teams that were developing. This year the middle ground is packed the "worst" teams aren't that bad and the "top" teams aren't that good (Syd, WB, Hawks, Geel, Ade, WC and NM are all arguably worse than last year).

For me that leaves one potentially outstanding team in GWS who have struggled with injuries, but get back Haynes, Lobb, Coniglio, Devon Smith and presumably Delidio. On paper they are streets ahead in class and i'm going to join the final books I haven't yet joined and chuck the bonus bets on for them to make the win the flag. Should finish top, significant home ground advantage which should get them through to the GF and can hedge if needed.

So for me it looks like GWS at the top, Bris at the bottom and everyone else in the middle

 

[Keystone agony]

1.5 Units Essendon +17.5 @1.92
2U Hurley <92.5 @1.75
1U Lloyd <107.5 @1.87

 

[mookieb]

1.5 Units Essendon +17.5 @1.92
2U Hurley <92.5 @1.75
1U Lloyd <107.5 @1.87

Geez +24.5 for Ess is starting to look very attractive. Lost to 17 to GWS and I suspect that the week off freshens the majority of teams up.

 

[hedgedhog]

I think the difference is the closeness of the league. If you consider that the Hawks are the 17th rated team and can beat the equal premiership favourite minus O'Meara, Stratton, Frawley, Gibson and Rioli away from home. Last year there was a multitude of bad teams including Ess, Bris, GC, Carl and plenty of young teams that were developing. This year the middle ground is packed the "worst" teams aren't that bad and the "top" teams aren't that good (Syd, WB, Hawks, Geel, Ade, WC and NM are all arguably worse than last year).

Last year, I'm quite sure that continually betting on teams like Essendon, Brisbane, GC and Carlton at the line you would be down for the season. I know because I suffered large losses continually betting those 4 throughout the season (my worst being Brisbane at -3k for the season). This season, I'm up significantly on both ML and line bets for underdogs. But you know what, if you combined both season together, you would probably be very close to even.

The line is a good measure of how even or uneven the season is compared to expectations. Last season was one more uneven and this one more even. But just because the first 13 rounds this season have been even doesn't mean the last 10 are going to be even. The books know this and if anyone thinks just continually hitting underdogs blindly is going to make them money then they're going to be absolutely torched sooner or later.

 

[iluvparis]

I need to hit a Malcom tonight to avoid a losing week. I've only had eight losing weeks out of 50 this financial year and at the moment I'm on track to have my third worst week.

Total game score 188-197 please.
Crows by 52 points for a long shot.

Sure you have

 

[targett]

J.Lloyd O28.5 $1.9/B356 8/11

 

[karaoke]

HT

$500 Adelaide win at $1.10 w Sportsbet
$50 Hawthorn win at $18 w Ozbet

Good work

$21 @ Luxbet was also on offer FWIW

 

[targett]

Good work

$21 @ Luxbet was also on offer FWIW

I would of taken the 3.66% both sides but it paid off this time.Nice work

 

[DemonZombie_001]

I am just glad I finally learned that I should not go crazy on a single game, and have it in with every multi/bonus bet/h2h I do for a round.

I lost about 3 units last night, previously i would have lost around 8 to 10 units.

 

[Sabbathen]

Compiled some interesting data, if you put $5 on the underdog in every match this season so far you would have lost $330 in losing bets but won back $680.25 including stakes. TAB data from first post in each round's thread.

Did that this round you'd only be $2 down after just one game.

This is what I have been doing and with Sportsbet/365 24 points up promo the returns are even better again.

 

[Boxhead182]

Port Adelaide
GWS
West Coast
$3.36 multi SB

 

[X_box_X]

Sure you have

Nine now.

Bloody Xenephon you prick.

 

[Keystone agony]

Geez +24.5 for Ess is starting to look very attractive. Lost to 17 to GWS and I suspect that the week off freshens the majority of teams up.

it is i wish i didnt go 17.5 do i want more than 1.5u on it, Is the Q im asking

 

[Keystone agony]

any tbc bets? ie bellchambers

 

[hedgedhog]

Ablett out.

 

[targett]

Ablett out.

-21.5 taken @ 1.72

 

[targett]

The Betfair Prediction Model's ratings are in contrast to the market for Saturday's Collingwood vs Port Adelaide fixture at the MCG. The Model rates the Magpies as a $1.96 proposition, but with $2.12 currently available on the Exchange, they appear a great value play.

 

[rOdGe]

No Fyfe for Freo. So gone 4U on Neale over 27.5 possessions @$1.87 sportsbet

 

[mookieb]

The Betfair Prediction Model's ratings are in contrast to the market for Saturday's Collingwood vs Port Adelaide fixture at the MCG. The Model rates the Magpies as a $1.96 proposition, but with $2.12 currently available on the Exchange, they appear a great value play.

Typically Port are pretty good against teams outside the 8 and while they are ranked pretty highly this year still haven't beaten a top 8 team (like they couldn't do last year). However, they were pretty impressive against Geel a few weeks ago.

Elliott, Wells and Varcoe out. Elliott in particular has been their leading goal kicker the last 5 weeks he has played.

Seems like there is some significant variance in teams performance coming off a bye. Some have been refreshed and fantastic and others like NM and Ade have been very poor.

Looks like a better game to watch than bet on.

 

[benno_]

Bombers/Bombers/Swans/Swans
North 1st Quarter +2.5

Putting a bonus bet on a multi of these two @28.65

 

[Keystone agony]

1.5 Units Essendon +17.5 @1.92
1U Essendon +24.5 @1.92
2U Hurley <92.5 @1.75
1U Lloyd <107.5 @1.87

Could be a late out for swans with marsh held over last half of neafl ... last minute

Maybe Lloyd or melican i reckon