AFL 2017 - AFL Round 5

[2nd_2_None]

Couple I got on last night:

1.1U Josh Gibson <64.5 DT @1.88
1.1U Dangerfield -20.5 DT vs Seb Ross @1.88

Love the way your DT bets are able to move lines/rates - hahaha. Seems like they just wait for you to bet then adjust accordingly

 

[maskmcgee]

If you're so sure about the -60 being a joke, why buy 20 points and lose 60 cents of value?

Because the Dogs may win by 100. Nothing suggests they will. But they might.

 

[benno_]

Love the way your DT bets are able to move lines/rates - hahaha. Seems like they just wait for you to bet then adjust accordingly

haha yeah every time I make a DT bet with Crown now it takes about 1-2min to go through, then the traders immediately shift the odds/line based on it.

 

[Hellboy101]

Tom Boyd 2+ goals @ 2.75. Bet365. 1.50 @ sportswear. Value today with no Cloke

 

[TheScream]

Because the Dogs may win by 100. Nothing suggests they will. But they might.

Well in that case you buying 20 points would be a massive fail as the +80 at 1.3 would lose, which is worse than losing a 1.92.
But anyway, Dogs may win by 100, Brisbane may win so I guess we've reached an impass, so why gamble at all?

 

[benno_]

Ladbrokes bet-blast this round is GWS $1.80

 

[happy punter]

I have to double check this when I get home but in the last 12 years that I have been recording lines no team has started a season 0-5 against the spread

 

[TheScream]

Adelaide total is now up to 206.5. Thinking a middle of 15 points at 1.9 each is now good value. Effective odds would be $19 for the total to land between 191.5 and 206.5. Worth it right?

 

[benno_]

Tom Boyd 2+ goals @ 2.75. Bet365. 1.50 @ sportswear. Value today with no Cloke

Tailing this with 1.5U 2+ goals @2.75 and also sticking 0.5U 3+ goals @7.50

 

[mookieb]

Well WB could barely beat NM so +59.5 for Brisbane looks generous when you consider Cloke is out and the dogs struggle to score. Only 0.5u because it's Brisbane.

I don't rate WB at the moment and think it's a poor sign that they couldn't bounce back from their loss against Freo. WC and GWS easily beat NM and their forward line isn't working. I like GWS -13.5 the following week vs WB.

 

[Oraz]

Plays for today

Lions QTR time line +13.5 @ 1.95 (1u)
Suns QTR time line +6.5 @ 1.90 (1u)
GWS -11.5 @ 1.92 (2u)

 

[mookieb]

Brisbane +14.5 1st Quarter (1.95 lux)
Brisbane first to 15 (3.2 lux)

Brisbane aren't great but have been ok in first quarters this year losing by an average margin of 3. Dogs haven't been great either, losing by an average margin of 2

I don't mind the bet because alot of weaker teams have been out of the blocks quick, but the Brisbane stats will be heavily influenced from when they jumped GC in game one.

 

[TheScream]

I don't mind the bet because alot of weaker teams have been out of the blocks quick, but the Brisbane stats will be heavily influenced from when they jumped GC in game one.

That's true, but you can't disregard the game completely either. As we've seen, the suns are no mugs. I mirror your sentiments about WB. This bet is more a play against WB than for Brisbane

 

[Oraz]

Great stuff lions

 

[maskmcgee]

OK.

Mmmhmm

 

[maskmcgee]

Anyone get on Lions 40+ @ $151

 

[happy punter]

Suns +28.5 over Crows (2 units)

 

[TheScream]

Brisbane may win

No. They won't. That's exactly why I took Dogs -23.5

You nervous champ?

 

[maskmcgee]

Glad I bet for round 6 early.

GWS - 13.5 now 14.5
Sydney - 18.5 now 27.5
Port -22.5 now 29.5

 

[maskmcgee]

You nervous champ?

Why?

 

[benji21]

Like D. Mundy AGS 1.83 (1.92 power-played) at Sportsbet. Has kicked 0, 1, 2, 3 this year.

Into 1.4 cashout would be available for a small profit

 

[mookieb]

Don't like the ins for Syd and expected perhaps a few iffy players like (Swallow or Barlow) to miss for the Suns. Ended up hedging both bets down to one unit each on GWS -13.5 and Ade -27.5 (small 2 point middle).

 

[ricardogp]

GWS / over 171.5 double $2.45 with power play at SB.

1u.


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[benno_]

Gees rough game. Beams went big with 126 DT but Dahl went huge with 130 DT and beat him. Boyd couldn't snag a second goal. Murphy under 88.5 DT looked like it had won until they gave him +4 for a tackle 10 min after the game that they missed, so that lost too by 0.5.

Only bet to win was stringer 4+ marks. Lost about 3U off the game.

 

[apolis]

2u Crows -28.5 @ 1.92
2u Melb @ 2.10

Good start for the crows