2018/19 English Football Predictions

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jod23 said:
Individually sure. But considering the fact that finished 1, 2 or 4 brings the same outcome of not being in the Europa League then it is in fact a 75% chance Liverpool miss EL and 25% they qualify for EL.

So I'm right and you're wrong. :)
Click to expand...

Jodly..

It's really pretty basic maths. I'm not sure what you're struggling with here.

Do you understand the concept of an independent variable as compared to a related variable?

As an example.

There is a 75% chance that Liverpool don't finish 1st (ignoring quality of group). That inherently means there is a 25% chance of finishing 1st. This is because the odds of finishing each position is linked (if they don't finish 1st, they have to finish 2nd, 3rd or 4th).

So you claiming that there are three things that have to happen for them to finish third is fundamentally flawed, because for those three things to happen, only one thing has to happen (that is, Liverpool finish third). The odds of which (25%) are the same as the odds of them not finishing 1st, 2nd, or 4th (i.e. 100% - 75% = 25%).

So you saying ALL THESE THINGS have to happen, and rattling off each thing as if it's an independent outcome is fundamentally flawed and betrays a pretty poor grasp on something that people learn in Maths as a 12 year old.
 
SM said:
Jodly..

It's really pretty basic maths. I'm not sure what you're struggling with here.

Do you understand the concept of an independent variable as compared to a related variable?

As an example.

There is a 75% chance that Liverpool don't finish 1st (ignoring quality of group). That inherently means there is a 25% chance of finishing 1st. This is because the odds of finishing each position is linked (if they don't finish 1st, they have to finish 2nd, 3rd or 4th).

So you claiming that there are three things that have to happen for them to finish third is fundamentally flawed, because for those three things to happen, only one thing has to happen (that is, Liverpool finish third). The odds of which (25%) are the same as the odds of them not finishing 1st, 2nd, or 4th (i.e. 100% - 75% = 25%).

So you saying ALL THESE THINGS have to happen, and rattling off each thing as if it's an independent outcome is fundamentally flawed and betrays a pretty poor grasp on something that people learn in Maths as a 12 year old.
Click to expand...
You make zero sense.

The moral of this story is that Liverpool probably wont win the Europa League.
 

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jod23 said:
You make zero sense.

The moral of this story is that Liverpool probably wont win the Europa League.
Click to expand...

Jod, at this point just put up your hand and admit that basic maths eludes you.

I can get Loonerty to explain it if you're really interested in learning how it works.
 
DBAH0 said:
Villa want more than 30M for him now apparently, which is well crazy, considering James Maddison went for about 18 - 20M from memory.

May depend on what you do with Lamela as well, I think if Zaha wants another move to a top 6 club (and Spurs is arguably his only chance at that ATM), he has to force the issue now.

Curious to see how much you get done come deadline day, it is weird seeing us as the 2nd top spenders so far this off-season....
Click to expand...
Lamela? He’s going nowhere. Poch loves his little pitbull
 
SM said:
Jod, at this point just put up your hand and admit that basic maths eludes you.

I can get Loonerty to explain it if you're really interested in learning how it works.
Click to expand...
Why can you never admit you are wrong?

3 out of 4 spots means Liverpool dont qualify for Europa League. You got it wrong. Just admit and let's move on.
 
images


This is like reading part II
 
I agree that ages can be rounded up and down like any other measurement. We aren't school kids anymore. Attica! Attica!
SM said:
Jodly..

It's really pretty basic maths. I'm not sure what you're struggling with here.

Do you understand the concept of an independent variable as compared to a related variable?

As an example.

There is a 75% chance that Liverpool don't finish 1st (ignoring quality of group). That inherently means there is a 25% chance of finishing 1st. This is because the odds of finishing each position is linked (if they don't finish 1st, they have to finish 2nd, 3rd or 4th).

So you claiming that there are three things that have to happen for them to finish third is fundamentally flawed, because for those three things to happen, only one thing has to happen (that is, Liverpool finish third). The odds of which (25%) are the same as the odds of them not finishing 1st, 2nd, or 4th (i.e. 100% - 75% = 25%).

So you saying ALL THESE THINGS have to happen, and rattling off each thing as if it's an independent outcome is fundamentally flawed and betrays a pretty poor grasp on something that people learn in Maths as a 12 year old.
Click to expand...
SM said:
In fact re-reading your post it appears you've subtly tried to flip your position and argue my point for me as if it's been your point all along.. :$
Click to expand...
I think you're being a bit disingenuous to suggest that Jod was trying to claim 4 things have to happen to finish 3rd. He was just phrasing it to make clear there are 4 options, therefore leaving 3rd as a 25% chance before they then win Europa. Given LFC made the final last year with consistently big wins, including against quality opposition, it's not too one-eyed for Jod to claim 'a lot has to happen'.

I was thinking of making a similar prediction to DB and saying someone like Napoli win Europa, and if they're in the same group as Liverpool the chances of that increase, but I'm aware it's kind of a hit-and-hope prediction.

Point is, this is one of those convos that does not need to go on this long. Jod's maths didn't need 'correcting'.
 
Ratts of Tobruk said:
I agree that ages can be rounded up and down like any other measurement. We aren't school kids anymore. Attica! Attica!


I think you're being a bit disingenuous to suggest that Jod was trying to claim 4 things have to happen to finish 3rd. He was just phrasing it to make clear there are 4 options, therefore leaving 3rd as a 25% chance before they then win Europa. Given LFC made the final last year with consistently big wins, including against quality opposition, it's not too one-eyed for Jod to claim 'a lot has to happen'.

I was thinking of making a similar prediction to DB and saying someone like Napoli win Europa, and if they're in the same group as Liverpool the chances of that increase, but I'm aware it's kind of a hit-and-hope prediction.

Point is, this is one of those convos that does not need to go on this long. Jod's maths didn't need 'correcting'.
Click to expand...
My point in him saying "a lot has to happen" was he then listed "not finishing first, not finishing second" etc. It's disingenuous to claim those are independent outcomes and not merely the same as "we would have to finish third" which is one outcome.

He was being silly and then thought he'd have some fun by playing dumb and I bit.
 
SM said:
My point in him saying "a lot has to happen" was he then listed "not finishing first, not finishing second" etc. It's disingenuous to claim those are independent outcomes and not merely the same as "we would have to finish third" which is one outcome.

He was being silly and then thought he'd have some fun by playing dumb and I bit.
Click to expand...
You don't have a point. Jod mentioning those outcomes is because they are possible "independent outcomes". His phrasing suggest the 1 in 4, so is not disingenuous. As everyone has been saying to each other for a page now - we all know it's 25% on the bare maths of the group ladder. That doesn't consider the likelihood of those options or the likelihood of results in subsequent matches, so if we really want to get into the maths there's a lot there. But it's pretty boring.
 
Ratts of Tobruk said:
You don't have a point. Jod mentioning those outcomes is because they are possible "independent outcomes". His phrasing suggest the 1 in 4, so is not disingenuous. As everyone has been saying to each other for a page now - we all know it's 25% on the bare maths of the group ladder. That doesn't consider the likelihood of those options or the likelihood of results in subsequent matches, so if we really want to get into the maths there's a lot there. But it's pretty boring.
Click to expand...
How on earth are they independent?

This is getting ridiculous.
 
SM said:
How on earth are they independent?

This is getting ridiculous.
Click to expand...
Really...? I agree this is getting ridiculous. You yourself stated that they are "not independent" by suggesting these outcomes are the same:
  • finishing 3rd
  • not finishing 1st, 2nd, or 4th
You are right. But we all agree it isn't 50% (they do it or they don't). Jod's phrasing more accurately says that these are the potential independent outcomes:
  • finishing 1st
  • finishing 2nd
  • finishing 3rd
  • finishing 4th
By saying "not" to 3 of those options, Jod communicates the 1 in 4 we all agree on. And Jod's "a lot has to happen" also communicates the fact they would then have to win every subsequent tie in Europa, which could suggest they are still playing well, which could suggest their 3rd finish was a bit:

ELIwSDM.gif


Move on.

Mods, feel free to delete all of this convo.
 

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Ratts of Tobruk said:
Really...? I agree this is getting ridiculous. You yourself stated that they are "not independent" by suggesting these outcomes are the same:
  • finishing 3rd
  • not finishing 1st, 2nd, or 4th
You are right. But we all agree it isn't 50% (they do it or they don't). Jod's phrasing more accurately says that these are the potential independent outcomes:
  • finishing 1st
  • finishing 2nd
  • finishing 3rd
  • finishing 4th
By saying "not" to 3 of those options, Jod communicates the 1 in 4 we all agree on. And Jod's "a lot has to happen" also communicates the fact they would then have to win every subsequent tie in Europa, which could suggest they are still playing well, which could suggest their 3rd finish was a bit:

ELIwSDM.gif


Move on.

Mods, feel free to delete all of this convo.
Click to expand...


You could have just stopped with the bold. Thanks for accepting it.

We move on.
 
Ratts of Tobruk said:
Really...? I agree this is getting ridiculous. You yourself stated that they are "not independent" by suggesting these outcomes are the same:
  • finishing 3rd
  • not finishing 1st, 2nd, or 4th
You are right. But we all agree it isn't 50% (they do it or they don't). Jod's phrasing more accurately says that these are the potential independent outcomes
Click to expand...
You can have 2 outcomes which have different probabilities...

Tonight I will either sleep with Mila Kunis or I won't.
Is that 50/50?

Independent events are like rolling a die and drawing a card - events that do not impact one another.
Not finishing second and not finishing first are inherently dependent.
 
Loonerty said:
You can have 2 outcomes which have different probabilities...

Tonight I will either sleep with Mila Kunis or I won't.
Is that 50/50?

Independent events are like rolling a die and drawing a card - events that do not impact one another.
Not finishing second and not finishing first are inherently dependent.
Click to expand...
Jesus.

Have a read of this condensed version and then decide if you want to have another crack:
DBAH0 said:
Europa League: Liverpool
Click to expand...
jod23 said:
A lot would have to happen for this haha.
Click to expand...
SM said:
A lot? You'd just have to come third in your CL group.
Click to expand...
jod23 said:
we'd have to not top the group, not finish second and not come last. Then from there we would need to go on and win the Europa League.
Click to expand...
SM said:
You say that as if not coming first second or last are independent events, and not the same probability as merely.. coming third.
Click to expand...
So SM grabs onto the negative used in Jod's perfectly fine phrase and obsesses about that specific phrase, despite it being pointlessly pedantic.
jod23 said:
But it's not the same probability...To qualify for Europa League we must finish 3rd. Not 1st, not 2nd and not 4th. So to miss out on Europa league is a 75% and to make Europa League, it's a 25% chance.
Click to expand...
SM said:
The probability of not finishing 1, 2, 4 is the same as the probability of finishing 3rd.
Click to expand...
SM repeats his pedantry, so Jod clarifies in order to stop the stupidness of the conversation:
jod23 said:
Individually sure. But considering the fact that finished 1, 2 or 4 brings the same outcome of not being in the Europa League then it is in fact a 75% chance Liverpool miss EL and 25% they qualify for EL.
Click to expand...
SM said:
you claiming that there are three things that have to happen for them to finish third is fundamentally flawed, because for those three things to happen, only one thing has to happen (that is, Liverpool finish third). The odds of which (25%) are the same as the odds of them not finishing 1st, 2nd, or 4th (i.e. 100% - 75% = 25%).

So you saying ALL THESE THINGS have to happen, and rattling off each thing as if it's an independent outcome is fundamentally flawed and betrays a pretty poor grasp on something that people learn in Maths as a 12 year old.
Click to expand...
So SM is trying to define things as not being "independent" in order to try and pretend that Jod is claiming something "wrong". You cannot finish in three positions at once, because they are individual positions, but you can end up "not finishing 1st, 2nd, or 4th" at once. So SM is talking about a phrase as being key, and Jod is talking about the actual numbers. The convo then just got even more repetitious.

It's ****ing pointless. A waste of space and worth deleting.
 
Last edited:
Ratts of Tobruk said:
Jesus.

Have a read of this condensed version and then decide if you want to have another crack:





So SM grabs onto the negative used in Jod's perfectly fine phrase and obsesses about that specific phrase, despite it being pointlessly pedantic.


SM repeats his pedantry, so Jod clarifies in order to stop the stupidness of the conversation:


So SM is trying to define things as "independent" in order to try and pretend that Jod is claiming something "wrong". You cannot finish in three positions at once, because they are individual positions, but you can end up "not finishing 1st, 2nd, or 4th" at once. So SM is talking about a phrase as being key, and Jod is talking about the actual numbers. The convo then just got even more repetitious.

It's ****ing pointless. A waste of space and worth deleting.
Click to expand...

Uh, you have it backwards. I'm saying they aren't independent because Jod and yourself have no grasp of basic maths or English respectively.
 

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2018/19 English Football Predictions

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