AFL 2018 - AFL Round 1

[iluvparis]

If you guys had to put $100 on one underdog for round 1 who would you put it on and why?
(excluding games where the underdog is nearly even money)

Geelong - Melbourne proved all last year they are liable to dog it in a big spot and given the hype around them over the off season I can see them getting stage fright again here. Hard/experienced Geelong side should prove too strong.

 

[langdon19]

Cats arnt an under dog

 

[iluvparis]

Cats arnt an under dog

Obviously the smart money has come for them then.

 

[langdon19]

Yeah, top 4 team vs team that did not make finals with a soft draw.

 

[mookieb]

Obviously the smart money has come for them then.

I got Melb +8.5 so they have shortened although much of this is around Danger missing.

As far as hard / experienced players Geel have lost Mackie, Lonergan, Motlop (hard he he) plus will be without Henderson, S. Selwood, a few others. If Danger misses which I expect he will that means plenty of bog average players running around on a ground that aren't suited to.

Mind you it's Melb so a very good chance of pooping the bed first up against an experienced team.

 

[iluvparis]

I got Melb +8.5 so they have shortened although much of this is around Danger missing.

Melbourne were outright faves a week ago

 

[maskmcgee]

How many teams actually lost last season after being 24 points up?

 

[maskmcgee]

As for my real bet

Richmond -29.5
St Kilda -24.5
GWS -17.5
Port Adelaide -26.5

= $13.58

 

[jacksgh]

Kane Lambert 2 or more goals $4.25 365 0.5 unit
Brandon Ellis Most Disposals Group B $3.75 365 0.5 unit
Richmond -14.5 2nd half line $1.85 365 2 units

 

[Stormin_2]

Ok guys, lets start making some money. Sydney and Port to cover their lines are the best bets for the round. In my opinion geelong and Hawthorn are overs.
Have all of these in a multi with Richmond to win just because its the first game of the round so I thought I'd include it

 

[Stormin_2]

I got Melb +8.5 so they have shortened although much of this is around Danger missing.

As far as hard / experienced players Geel have lost Mackie, Lonergan, Motlop (hard he he) plus will be without Henderson, S. Selwood, a few others. If Danger misses which I expect he will that means plenty of bog average players running around on a ground that aren't suited to.

Mind you it's Melb so a very good chance of pooping the bed first up against an experienced team.

But then Melbourne are missing Viney and Tom McDonald..

 

[capperscap]

Over or under for tonight?

 

[Joe Hawkins]

Over and gives to cover the line

 

[mookieb]

But then Melbourne are missing Viney and Tom McDonald..

Danger's confirmed out.

Think Melb have a bit more depth than Geel with S Selwood, Henderson and a few others out. I'll probably hedge some of Melb +8.5 and go for a middle given it's the first game of the year.

 

[Joe Hawkins]

flipping autocorrect. Tiges to cover the line

 

[Joe Hawkins]

Ruddy? Man what a swear filter y'all got here.

 

[Vhaluus]

Josh Jenkins $7 to kick a goal from the goal square with sportsbet 'megabet'

 

[langdon19]

Over and gives to cover the line

Total is bang on
Much better value tomorrow night

 

[mookieb]

Total is bang on
Much better value tomorrow night

You going the over Ade / Ess game?

 

[mookieb]

Game 1, round 1 and my Crown multi already looking very, very shaky.

 

[freo_leo29]

$30 Bailey Banfield kick a goal @1.91 SB
$20 Bailey Banfield kick 2 goals @4.25 Bet365
$10 Bailey Banfield 3 goals @ 21 SB
$5 Bailey Banfield 4 goals @101 SB

$20 Matera 1 goal @2 SB
$10 Matera 3 goals @ 23 SB
$5 Matera 4 Goals @101 SB


Judging by JLT i'm expecting both to get atleast 1 goal, think Banfield 2 goals is the best bet of the lot

 

[freo_leo29]

Adding
$20 Westhoff 2 goals @4.25 B365
$10 Westhoff 3 goals @15 B365

Freo playing only 2 tall defenders against 4 KPF for Port expect one of them to float down a snag a couple

 

[langdon19]

You going the over Ade / Ess game?

Yep, see no reason why it won't go over.
Average 214 vs
Both attacking teams
I'm on the over

 

[langdon19]

Over and gives to cover the line

Nice start to the season

 

[Atavistic]

$30 Bailey Banfield kick a goal @1.91 SB
$20 Bailey Banfield kick 2 goals @4.25 Bet365
$10 Bailey Banfield 3 goals @ 21 SB
$5 Bailey Banfield 4 goals @101 SB

$20 Matera 1 goal @2 SB
$10 Matera 3 goals @ 23 SB
$5 Matera 4 Goals @101 SB


Judging by JLT i'm expecting both to get at least 1 goal, think Banfield 2 goals is the best bet of the lot

Did Matera kick a goal in JLT? I thought he went goalless. Besides, it could be tough for them to score against Port.