AFL 2018 - AFL Round 3

[balmainforever]

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Carlton |$2.75|$2.75|$2.70|$2.85|$2.65|$2.60
\Collingwood |$1.45|$1.46|$1.46|$1.45|$1.48|$1.50
\|line:14.5|line:13.5|line:13.5|line:14.5|line:12.5|line:12.5
\total score:|***.5|174.5|***.5|172.5|173.5|173.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Port Adelaide |$1.08|$1.07|$1.07|$1.08|$1.06|$1.05
\Brisbane |$8.00|$8.50|$8.25|$8.50|$9.50|$10.00
\|line:46.5|line:45.5|line:45.5|line:46.5|line:44.5|line:47.5
\total score:|***.5|184.5|***.5|184.5|182.5|186.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Melbourne |$1.30|$1.31|$1.28|$1.29|$1.25|$1.28
\North Melb. |$3.55|$3.50|$3.65|$3.75|$4.00|$3.70\|line:23.5|line:22.5|line:23.5|line:23.5|line:24.5|line:23.5
\total score:|***.5|185.5|***.5|185.5|184.5|182.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Gold Coast |$2.75|$2.80|$2.80|$2.90|$2.90|$2.90
\Fremantle |$1.45|$1.44|$1.43|$1.44|$1.42|$1.42
\|line:15.5|line:15.5|line:15.5|line:16.5|line:15.5|line:16.5
\total score:|***.5|180.5|***.5|178.5|181.5|182.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\St.Kilda |$3.35|$3.50|$3.30|$3.30|$3.25|$3.60
\Adelaide |$1.33|$1.30|$1.33|$1.35|$1.35|$1.30
\|line:22.5|line:21.5|line:21.5|line:19.5|line:19.5|line:21.5
\total score:|***.5|186.5|***.5|185.5|195.5|190.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Sydney |$1.65|$1.70|$1.70|$1.70|$1.72|$1.74
\G-W Sydney |$2.25|$2.17|$2.15|$2.20|$2.15|$2.10
\|line:6.5|line:5.5|line:5.5|line:6.5|line:5.5|line:5.5
\total score:|***.5|175.5|***.5|175.5|173.5|176.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Richmond |$1.65|$1.68|$1.68|$1.65|$1.68|$1.68
\Hawthorn |$2.25|$2.20|$2.20|$2.30|$2.20|$2.20
\|line:10.5|line:6.5|line:7.5|line:7.5|line:6.5|line:7.5
\total score:|***.5|183.5|***.5|182.5|185.5|182.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\West.Bulldogs |$2.75|$2.80|$2.85|$2.75|$2.75|$3.00
\Essendon |$1.45|$1.44|$1.42|$1.47|$1.45|$1.39
\|line:15.5|line:15.5|line:16.5|line:14.5|line:14.5|line:17.5
\total score:|***.5|189.5|***.5|188.5|188.5|191.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\West Coast |$2.10|$2.00|$2.02|$2.05|$2.00|$2.02
\Geelong |$1.75|$1.81|$1.81|$1.80|$1.82|$1.80
\|line:5.5|line:2.5|line:3.5|line:3.5|line:2.5|line:3.5
\total score:|***.5|185.5|***.5|184.5|188.5|187.5

ODDS AT 01.00 ON 3/4/18

 

[langdon19]

Carlt vs Coll U175.5
Port vs Bris O182.5
Melb vs North O182.5
Syd vs GWS U175.5

 

[Zevon]

Keen on GWS at that price. They are a 4 goal better side than Sydney IMO and if the game was at Spotless the prices would quite rightly be the other way round. Really don't think the SCG saves us.

Possibly a bit of value around Carlton as well; the market has potentially overreacted to a poor performance last week. I'm not really seeing why the Magpies are entitled to be $1.45.

 

[capperscap]

Like Carlton at the +.
Think this game will be very close. Both sides desperate to win. Both sides very even at the moment.

 

[langdon19]

North always knock Melbourne over
$4 is good value

 

[TheScream]

North always knock Melbourne over
$4 is good value

I figured the same when I saw those juicy odds on North last week. Melbourne are vulnerable against anyone.
Last week I put in a $10 multi at odds of 2500+ with 4 legs winning last week, have Carlton, North, Suns, GWS +10.5, Essendon and Geelong left. Watch the Suns the bed for me, had no idea it was at Perth

 

[chrisdon16]

Giants +5.5

 

[capperscap]

Keen on GWS at that price. They are a 4 goal better side than Sydney IMO and if the game was at Spotless the prices would quite rightly be the other way round. Really don't think the SCG saves us.

Possibly a bit of value around Carlton as well; the market has potentially overreacted to a poor performance last week. I'm not really seeing why the Magpies are entitled to be $1.45.

Hmm,
Why do you say that GWS are a 4 goal better side than Sydney?
GWS Struggled against an undermanned Collingwood side at the G and defeated a bulldogs team in disarray in round 1.
On paper, GWS may appear a superior side to the Swans.
However, if the swans bring the pressure like the pies did last week i think this game will be very close / swans by 2-3 goals.

 

[Zevon]

Hmm,
Why do you say that GWS are a 4 goal better side than Sydney?
GWS Struggled against an undermanned Collingwood side at the G and defeated a bulldogs team in disarray in round 1.
On paper, GWS may appear a superior side to the Swans.
However, if the swans bring the pressure like the pies did last week i think this game will be very close / swans by 2-3 goals.

Honestly, I predicted a slide for Sydney prior to the season (not a falling off the cliff but at least a drop into the bottom part of the 8) and nothing I've seen in first two rounds - an arm's length victory over a West Coast side fielding 3 debutants and a loss to Port where the Swans were basically smashed after half time - has done anything to convince me otherwise. An over reliance on Buddy has never been more stark than it is now for Sydney... What might the first two weeks have looked like if he wasn't there?

You're absolutely right to highlight that GWS were unconvincing against Collingwood but the Giants are typically unimpressive at the MCG and to be fair the Magpies brought a pretty decent standard to that game.

The two midfields look pretty even (possibly a slight edge to the Giants but it's marginal). But their forward line vs our defence is where I see the game being won. Grundy can stop Patton but we've struggled with Cameron and Greene in the past and I see that trend continuing. Buddy is the trump card as always but as I also felt prior to the Port game I just can't see Sydney winning this with a lone hand from him.

All of this coupled with the fact that the Swans are typically over-valued at the SCG tells me that GWS are well over the odds at $2.25.

Apologies for the long post

 

[Sketi]

Honestly, I predicted a slide for Sydney prior to the season (not a falling off the cliff but at least a drop into the bottom part of the 8) and nothing I've seen in first two rounds - an arm's length victory over a West Coast side fielding 3 debutants and a loss to Port where the Swans were basically smashed after half time - has done anything to convince me otherwise. An over reliance on Buddy has never been more stark than it is now for Sydney... What might the first two weeks have looked like if he wasn't there?

You're absolutely right to highlight that GWS were unconvincing against Collingwood but the Giants are typically unimpressive at the MCG and to be fair the Magpies brought a pretty decent standard to that game.

The two midfields look pretty even (possibly a slight edge to the Giants but it's marginal). But their forward line vs our defence is where I see the game being won. Grundy can stop Patton but we've struggled with Cameron and Greene in the past and I see that trend continuing. Buddy is the trump card as always but as I also felt prior to the Port game I just can't see Sydney winning this with a lone hand from him.

All of this coupled with the fact that the Swans are typically over-valued at the SCG tells me that GWS are well over the odds at $2.25.

Apologies for the long post

Reid a possible in for the Swans and would be a handy one. Having him as that second lead up forward straightens us up a bit.

Leaning GWS too but will depend on if we respond from last week and lift. Rampe had a shocker so potential upside there if he responds, although he was below his usual standard in round 1 too. Swans might be having another slow start to the year.

 

[rideclutch]

Historically awful sports punter checking in, but I'd be happy to take North with the start given the recent H2H of those 2 sides.

 

[juss]

Carlton, GWS + lines are decent bets

 

[kaiserchief13]

North - great odds. Great record v Melbourne plus Melbourne haven't been great in first 2 rounds+North were decent vs St Kilda.

WC - Geelongs defense is a rabble - Ryan and Darling will run rampant. Naitanui/Lycett will somewhat offset Danger/Ablett/Selwood so unless these 3 guys kick 10 between them WC should win.

 

[2nd_2_None]

North - great odds. Great record v Melbourne plus Melbourne haven't been great in first 2 rounds+North were decent vs St Kilda.

WC - Geelongs defense is a rabble - Ryan and Darling will run rampant. Naitanui/Lycett will somewhat offset Danger/Ablett/Selwood so unless these 3 guys kick 10 between them WC should win.

You must have only watched the second half of that north/saints game, first half both teams were terrible

 

[bluesboy23]

Carlt vs Coll U175.5
Port vs Bris O182.5
Melb vs North O182.5
Syd vs GWS U175.5

Tuesday morning at 8am after a Easter Monday game? How much did you get on, $2.87?

 

[bluesboy23]

Dees to cover the line easily. North beat an embarrassing Saints team. Dees by 40+ that line is a gift

 

[langdon19]

Tuesday morning at 8am after a Easter Monday game? How much did you get on, $2.87?

No Monday morning

 

[Resarenco]

Took Adelaide $1.40 betfair.

 

[Spacedog]

Richmond -7.5 or even 1-39 is value imo. The odds will shorten once prestia and vlastuin are named and burgoyne is out. Our record vs Hawthorn is really good especially at the MCG.

 

[langdon19]

Nibble at port -90.5@ $8.50

 

[capperscap]

Anyone like crows line?

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

Richmond best bet of the round. We always struggle against them, short back up. No Sicily, Burgers and Frawley. Can’t see us winning.

 

[PHX]

Richmond best bet of the round. We always struggle against them, short back up. No Sicily, Burgers and Frawley. Can’t see us winning.

Hawthorn are 3-2 against Richmond in the last 5 games.

With our defense not showing the strength it had last year and Hawthorn playing a different style of game in these first 2 rounds I think it's one to just stay away from.

 

[Sketi]

Hawks in much better form I'm leaning towards them. Tigers wins against them often come as underdogs, will be interesting to see how they wear the favouritism tag.

 

[capperscap]

What are peoples thoughts on
Eagles v Cats?
Very difficult game to predict here.