AFL 2018 - AFL Round 3

[Zevon]

What are peoples thoughts on
Eagles v Cats?
Very difficult game to predict here.

Probably not a game I'll be getting involved with from a betting point of view because it's hard to know where either team is at. The Eagles lost to S̶y̶d̶n̶e̶y̶ Lance Franklin before beating up on a pitifully weak Bulldogs side. The Cats form looks a little stronger against a couple of finals contending teams but then they should arguably be sitting 0-2 but for Max Gawn's wayward shot on goal. The Cats list looks stronger than the Eagles so I would lean towards them getting the job done, but I'm not sure there's value about either side tbh.

 

[iluvparis]

Cats could equally be 2-0 had the throw out on the wing been paid at the death

I'm leaning Geelong but little confidence

 

[SM]

Cats could equally be 2-0 had the throw out on the wing been paid at the death

I'm leaning Geelong but little confidence

And all the FKs they got away with? Bit simplistic to look at just one decision. They won't get favourable calls every week and haven't looked very convincing in either game.

 

[mookieb]

Only two weeks in and already teams already under the pump. Should be a fascinating round of footy:

Really like Coll -11.5. If they lose this then at 0-3 and a loss to Carl under their belts then the season is almost over. They have been great in games over the last 2 years when under pressure and a loss may well have seen Bucks sent packing. Sure it's a big game for both teams, but Carl have shown little and Coll were pretty close to upsetting GWS. Cox and Reid back should straighten them up.

Should have jumped on Port when the line was low 40's, but likely to leave it now.

Melb / NM should be interesting given that North have a good record against them. Should have jumped on NM when the line was high 20's, but worried because underdog teams having big win don't fair well ATS the following week.

Reckon Freo is slightly better team than GC plus a couple of goals for HGA. Leaning towards Freo as i'm not sure that GC can maintain the same intensity for a third game on the road.

Think GWS are good to go H2H and the line. Think Syd are a bit overated at the SCG and GWS won by 7 goals their last year. Syd seem very highly reliant on Buddy and if he is crowded then they will struggle to score. I'm hesitant to bet against Syd coming off a loss but think the best team wins here.

StK were terrible last week so they either bottom out with another terrible performance or respond to the smashing they have received in the media and internally. I think they will bounce back this week and potentially facing Ade in a letdown spot after the GF replay. I got Ade earlier in the week so will probably go for a middle.

Hawks look fantastic and Rich have looked relatively ordinary so I grabbed Hawks +10.5. For all the raving about Richmond's pressure they have leaked goals for 2 weeks and that's with Dusty dominating. If they are the real deal again then they will be looking to bounce back (ala the Hawks used to after a loss in their premiership years).

Geel are dead last in inside 50's 8 behind StK. They are very heavily reliant on top end talent and so it hurts when players like Taylor, Henderson and especially Duncan miss. Stanley vs Nic Nat is going to be ugly to watch. Unfortunately underdog teams having massive wins doesn't often translate the next week so might give it a miss.

I find that teams that are appalling to weeks in a row then bounce back the next week. However, Ess is also coming off a poor display and think their stacked forward line looks likely to dominate with Morris, Trengrove, Adams injured plus Libba and Picken. Roughead is also missing so English will get monstered in the ruck. I got -14.5 and just can't see them having the team to cover that line.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Couple sneaky ones.
Daniher 5+ goals at 7s and 6+ at 15s. Slow start but he kicked 6 against them in a losing side and dogs really battling at moment. Darling kicked 4 last week and Cameron 7 in round 1. Dons by 60+ is also 7 bucks which I don't mind even though coming back from WA. Dogs have been rolled by 82 and 51 so far.

Not sure if Robbie Gray playing more mid or forward but 5+ goals at 21s. Good weather, Port are flying and flat trackers and he did he kicked 5+ three times last year so seems fair value, but again not sure his role.

Sauce Jacobs in dream team points. Don't know what it is but it'll be overs. No opponent.

 

[capperscap]

Leans so far

Carlton +11.5
Freo -15.5
Adelaide -20.5
Sydney -6.5

 

[Spacedog]

Couple sneaky ones.
Daniher 5+ goals at 7s and 6+ at 15s. Slow start but he kicked 6 against them in a losing side and dogs really battling at moment. Darling kicked 4 last week and Cameron 7 in round 1. Dons by 60+ is also 7 bucks which I don't mind even though coming back from WA. Dogs have been rolled by 82 and 51 so far.

Not sure if Robbie Gray playing more mid or forward but 5+ goals at 21s. Good weather, Port are flying and flat trackers and he did he kicked 5+ three times last year so seems fair value, but again not sure his role.

Sauce Jacobs in dream team points. Don't know what it is but it'll be overs. No opponent.

Robbie Gray will be in the middle

 

[Spacedog]

What are peoples thoughts on
Eagles v Cats?
Very difficult game to predict here.

I like Geelong -2.5. Geelong's midfield should smash West Coast's. I wouldn't take last week into account that much, Hawthorn usually play well on Easter monday and WCE beat the dogs who looked terrible.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Robbie Gray will be in the middle

middle of the Coleman leaderboard. Also a fiver on Sinclair for Brett kirk medal at 101-1. Solely cos against Lobb in ruck.

 

[tangolikelama]

$50 Robbie 6+ @81

 

[maskmcgee]

Too many true 50/50s this week.

 

[Atavistic]

Gray 4+ goals and Westhoff 110+ fantasy points $20@11. WH

 

[Spads]

... have jumped on NM when the line was high 20's, but worried because underdog teams having big win don't fair well ATS the following week.

Unfortunately underdog teams having massive wins doesn't often translate the next week so might give it a miss.

I find that teams that are appalling to weeks in a row then bounce back the next week.

Out of genuine interest, have you been tracking any stats in regards to the above statements?

 

[iluvparis]

And all the FKs they got away with? Bit simplistic to look at just one decision. They won't get favourable calls every week and haven't looked very convincing in either game.

Well done on missing the sarcasm as usual - I was pointing out that old mate did exactly this to assume they could be 0-2. Let's not forget they smashed Melbourne in the first half in Rd 1 and were 4 goals up.

 

[SM]

Well done on missing the sarcasm as usual - I was pointing out that old mate did exactly this to assume they could be 0-2. Let's not forget they smashed Melbourne in the first half in Rd 1 and were 4 goals up.

That's a little different since gawn was having a shot at goal, an easy one at that. Sarcasm wasn't that apparent but ok.

 

[iluvparis]

That's a little different since gawn was having a shot at goal, an easy one at that. Sarcasm wasn't that apparent but ok.

And if that throw gets paid the ball gets booted straight into Geelong's forward 50 yada yada yada

 

[BotsMaster]

Cats could equally be 2-0 had the throw out on the wing been paid at the death

I'm leaning Geelong but little confidence

History dictates Geelong normally lose after a close Hawthorn game.

 

[Macpotata]

I like Geelong -2.5. Geelong's midfield should smash West Coast's. I wouldn't take last week into account that much, Hawthorn usually play well on Easter monday and WCE beat the dogs who looked terrible.

Hawthorn don't play that well on Easter Monday. It was just their second win against us on an easter monday game.

 

[XXRL]

Couple sneaky ones.
Daniher 5+ goals at 7s and 6+ at 15s. Slow start but he kicked 6 against them in a losing side and dogs really battling at moment. Darling kicked 4 last week and Cameron 7 in round 1. Dons by 60+ is also 7 bucks which I don't mind even though coming back from WA. Dogs have been rolled by 82 and 51 so far.

Don't mind a bit of Daniher 4+ goals and Essendon win 25+ @$7.50 at WH.

Keen to take on the Dogs and the Bombers can score heavily at Etihad when it's going their way.

 

[Rocky Straight]

Out of genuine interest, have you been tracking any stats in regards to the above statements?

his theory is about 60% since 2003 when fading a team off a big underdog win who is again an underdog

 

[mookieb]

Out of genuine interest, have you been tracking any stats in regards to the above statements?

Some theories I have been tracking stats or in the process of and others I will speculate on having a look at team history.

Teams that win by 60+ points as underdogs 3-9 ATS - WC and NM both were underdogs and enjoyed 50+ point wins. Not the same obviously but close.

Over the last 2 years there have been a number of times teams have been atrocious for 2 games in a row which results in significant media and internal pressure. In most cases the team responds and the line has blown out given punters have jumped off. eg Hawks lost to Geel and GC both by 84 points then beat WC by 50 the following week. GC lost to Bris by 2 got mauled by GWS by 102 then came back and beat Hawks by 84. Freo lost by 104 points twice in a row and the following week were leading early in the last quarter vs Ess. The above are pretty similar situations to the WB.

Not backing Syd after a loss. Excluding the early part of last year where Syd had significant injury issues they have won 7 in a row after losing the prior week and 6 and 1 ATS in the last 2 years pretty much thrashing everyone including Geel twice at Skilled. Similar to Hawks after a loss in the glory years.

Coll have had several games over the last 2 years where a loss likely would have seen the end of Bucks. They have toweled up some weak teams in this situation similar to Carl so I expect the pressure of 0-2 will be more beneficial to Coll with finals aspirations.

Other games i'll often just speculate on potential outcomes rather than have any definitive stats.

 

[stevebbb]

Treloar paying $1.72 as Any time goal scorer tonight on SB
Considering he's spending most of his time forward (injured I assume), reckon that looks good to add some value to your same game multi

Pies win
Treloar any time goal scorer
Pendles 25 or more touches
Murray 20 or more touches
@ $5.50

 

[pendlebury_10]

Some theories I have been tracking stats or in the process of and others I will speculate on having a look at team history.

Teams that win by 60+ points as underdogs 3-9 ATS - WC and NM both were underdogs and enjoyed 50+ point wins. Not the same obviously but close.

Over the last 2 years there have been a number of times teams have been atrocious for 2 games in a row which results in significant media and internal pressure. In most cases the team responds and the line has blown out given punters have jumped off. eg Hawks lost to Geel and GC both by 84 points then beat WC by 50 the following week. GC lost to Bris by 2 got mauled by GWS by 102 then came back and beat Hawks by 84. Freo lost by 104 points twice in a row and the following week were leading early in the last quarter vs Ess. The above are pretty similar situations to the WB.

Not backing Syd after a loss. Excluding the early part of last year where Syd had significant injury issues they have won 7 in a row after losing the prior week and 6 and 1 ATS in the last 2 years pretty much thrashing everyone including Geel twice at Skilled. Similar to Hawks after a loss in the glory years.

Coll have had several games over the last 2 years where a loss likely would have seen the end of Bucks. They have toweled up some weak teams in this situation similar to Carl so I expect the pressure of 0-2 will be more beneficial to Coll with finals aspirations.

Other games i'll often just speculate on potential outcomes rather than have any definitive stats.

Great insight Mook

 

[SM]

Some theories I have been tracking stats or in the process of and others I will speculate on having a look at team history.

Teams that win by 60+ points as underdogs 3-9 ATS - WC and NM both were underdogs and enjoyed 50+ point wins. Not the same obviously but close.

Over the last 2 years there have been a number of times teams have been atrocious for 2 games in a row which results in significant media and internal pressure. In most cases the team responds and the line has blown out given punters have jumped off. eg Hawks lost to Geel and GC both by 84 points then beat WC by 50 the following week. GC lost to Bris by 2 got mauled by GWS by 102 then came back and beat Hawks by 84. Freo lost by 104 points twice in a row and the following week were leading early in the last quarter vs Ess. The above are pretty similar situations to the WB.

Not backing Syd after a loss. Excluding the early part of last year where Syd had significant injury issues they have won 7 in a row after losing the prior week and 6 and 1 ATS in the last 2 years pretty much thrashing everyone including Geel twice at Skilled. Similar to Hawks after a loss in the glory years.

Coll have had several games over the last 2 years where a loss likely would have seen the end of Bucks. They have toweled up some weak teams in this situation similar to Carl so I expect the pressure of 0-2 will be more beneficial to Coll with finals aspirations.

Other games i'll often just speculate on potential outcomes rather than have any definitive stats.

Brilliant insight, cheers.

I think I like the look of the Pies line tonight, 11.5 is a bit short on them I think, can't see Carlton sticking with them.

 

[SM]

Think I'll go the double of Pies -5.5 / U173.5 @ $3.25 on Ladbrokes. Can't see either team kicking a huge score.