AFL 2018 Brownlow Medal

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Didn't read the tips, just learnt that the markets were there. No good?

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When every corporate bookmaker ban/limits a customer at the first sign of intelligence, I become pretty skeptical of any information they share that will supposedly help you win. Seems pretty counter intuitive to their business model don’t you think?
I’m just guessing here but I reckon outside of footy clubs and the media, bookmakers would be some of Champion Data’s biggest clients. Their proprietary data would feature heavily in predictive models used to shape odds. As they already know the probability they can then set their margins and odds accordingly and use the Champion Data name to promote. Unibet have introduced a similar thing whereby they show trends and stats on the popular markets suggesting they are somehow predictive enough to beat their margins. It’s all pretty funny people fall for this shit really.
 
When every corporate bookmaker ban/limits a customer at the first sign of intelligence, I become pretty skeptical of any information they share that will supposedly help you win. Seems pretty counter intuitive to their business model don’t you think?
I’m just guessing here but I reckon outside of footy clubs and the media, bookmakers would be some of Champion Data’s biggest clients. Their proprietary data would feature heavily in predictive models used to shape odds. As they already know the probability they can then set their margins and odds accordingly and use the Champion Data name to promote. Unibet have introduced a similar thing whereby they show trends and stats on the popular markets suggesting they are somehow predictive enough to beat their margins. It’s all pretty funny people fall for this shit really.
I wouldn't say anyone here read ghe article and took the advice. I only found out about the exotic markets due to post on here, regardless of what the article said.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
I wouldn't say anyone here read ghe article and took the advice. I only found out about the exotic markets due to post on here, regardless of what the article said.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app


I found it funny how the article had that it predicted Tom Mitchell was a 45% chance of winning but then they have him at $1.45 in the market. If your models don’t agree with your odds then one of the two is wrong
 
My mates who rely too much on stats and dont factor in Rucks not polling ect but regardless a list of the results he has it as: (Also eagles and richmond fans)

Mitchell 31
Dusty 27
Grundy 26
Gawn 26
Oliver 23
Coniglio 21
Macrae 20
Yeo 20
Z.Merretr 19
Cripps 19
Fyfe 19

They over poll but consistenly for me i dont expect as big numbers. I have more if anyones keen for another perspective of votes
 

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AFL 2018 Brownlow Medal

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