2018 Mid-pricers

[stevebbb]

After Clayton Oliver's rise to Mid-price stardom last year, taking out the coveted Brownmidlow Medal for the Best performing mid-pricer of the year, I'm sure Supercoachers all around the world are excited to see who will explode this year.

However, as all SCers know, if you play with mid-pricers, you're definitely going to get burned.

Let the mid-price madness begin!

 

[stevebbb]

Birchall / HAW / DEF / $277,100

Injury plagued year as he only managed 5 games, 1 of which was injury effected.
He only averaged 77 from the 4 full games he played
Has an impressive record of yearly averaged since 2011


I'm keen on him as a stepping stone. He's best 22 and will play every game if fit.

Worst-case scenario: He gets injured again, doesn't play and forced you to trade him out early.
Average-case scenario: He plays games early, averages ~80, still makes it to ~$400k, good for an upgrade
Best-case scenario: He plays every game early, averages 85-90, allowing you to hold him as a potential D6/D7 or hold him for your final upgrade

Thoughts?

 

[stevebbb]

Smith / ESS / FWD / $439,100

Coming off a couple injury plagued seasons at the Giants, Smith now has a new home and a chance to get the solid midfield time he's always deserved

In 2014/2015 showed us some of his SC potential, averaging ~90, despite playing predominantly as a forward (probably 80% fwd time/20% mid time)


1. Will he play a predominate midfield role?
2. Will his body (specifically his knees) hold up?

I'm very keen on him as a keeper, assuming he gets through the preseason unscathed. I reckon he'll play as mid at the Bombers, who will rest forward instead of heading to the bench (probably 70% mid/30% fwd)

Worst-case: He gets injured and misses games, and/or only averages ~80
Average-case: He plays most games, averages 84-89 and you're stuck with him at D6
Best-case: He plays most games, averages 90-95

Thoughts?

 

[Glorin]

Nice work stevebbb.
Think Birchell is one of the safest mid pricers in years. You wrapped him up well and there is little downside in him at D4. I can see him spending more time on a wing and swing back and playing loose behind the ball. Is now in his prime and can see 85 ave without a problem. Bargain.

Smith is an interesting one. On pure ability, potential and role at new club he should be considered, but at that price I would be looking for a little less risk. Risk /reward situation and if he can stay on the park then he could reward the brave.
Question is at his price, will he score enough to be a keeper?

 

[toxic]

Adam Saad
Jake Stringer
Rory Lobb

 

[Pedro]

Coniglio is the one I'm interested in. If he gets through the pre season I think I'll run with him.

 

[Sydney Kicker]

Birchall / HAW / DEF / $277,100

Injury plagued year as he only managed 5 games, 1 of which was injury effected.
He only averaged 77 from the 4 full games he played
Has an impressive record of yearly averaged since 2011
View attachment 443696

I'm keen on him as a stepping stone. He's best 22 and will play every game if fit.

Worst-case scenario: He gets injured again, doesn't play and forced you to trade him out early.
Average-case scenario: He plays games early, averages ~80, still makes it to ~$400k, good for an upgrade
Best-case scenario: He plays every game early, averages 85-90, allowing you to hold him as a potential D6/D7 or hold him for your final upgrade

Thoughts?

Nice work Stevebbb

Rioli / HAW / FOW / $317,400

The Rioli that didn't win a flag, nor play much last year. Sadly his family are also going through trying times at present. When he's playing his SC points per possession are amazing - what holds him back is his injury history and even when he plays he doesn't get a heap of the ball.

Worst case scenario: Early retirement (say it ain't so Cyril)
Average case scenario: 15 games, average 85-90, makes you $100k but kind of awkward as he's not good enough as a keeper (games missed and average a little low)
Best case: 20 games @ 95 p.p.g makes an ok D6



Prognosis: Assuming he has a solid preseason would still only select if Forward rookies look dire or really want to save some coin. Unlikely to be a keeper nor make enough coin to make him a worthy investment.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Smith / ESS / FWD / $439,100

Coming off a couple injury plagued seasons at the Giants, Smith now has a new home and a chance to get the solid midfield time he's always deserved

In 2014/2015 showed us some of his SC potential, averaging ~90, despite playing predominantly as a forward (probably 80% fwd time/20% mid time)
View attachment 443697

1. Will he play a predominate midfield role?
2. Will his body (specifically his knees) hold up?

I'm very keen on him as a keeper, assuming he gets through the preseason unscathed. I reckon he'll play as mid at the Bombers, who will rest forward instead of heading to the bench (probably 70% mid/30% fwd)

Worst-case: He gets injured and misses games, and/or only averages ~80
Average-case: He plays most games, averages 84-89 and you're stuck with him at D6
Best-case: He plays most games, averages 90-95

Thoughts?

Hadn't considered Smith .......De Goey or Smith ?, both mid pricers ......which one will take the next step ?

 

[Sydney Kicker]

O'Meara / HAW / MID / $315,800

Became a professional Supercoach burnman last year. Will he ever become the superstar that his talent warrants? Enjoying a good offseason (supposedly) and the Hawks will do everything humanly possible to help him realise his talent.

Worst case scenario: 2-5 games @ 60 p.p.g and we finally realise his knee is f%$#ed for good.
Average case scenario: 18 games @ 85-90 he gets nursed through the season with a scheduled rest and a few niggles
Best case: 20 games @ 100 or just over. He becomes a luxury final upgrade or you might keep him as his average continues to climb at the back end of the season as he gets more games under his belt or you run out of trades.




Prognosis: Watch very carefully in the offseason and preseason. With so many underpriced premos (Beams, Rocky, Hanners, Cripps etc) it may be hard to find a place for him. Will likely start slowly but could eventually gain 170 or 180k as he gets back into the swing of things. Rookies might offer better returns and even if he does well could present a dilemma as to whether to keep or trade. Good chance he flops but would strongly consider.

 

[toxic]

Hadn't considered Smith .......De Goey or Smith ?, both mid pricers ......which one will take the next step ?

Both will improve SC scoring wise, enuff to be a forward keeper is the quandary

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Both will improve SC scoring wise, enuff to be a forward keeper is the quandary

Like Heeney last year. One of those two will move into the top 10 forwards and end up a keeper. Just gotta pick the right one.

 

[toxic]

Like Heeney last year. One of those two will move into the top 10 forwards and end up a keeper. Just gotta pick the right one.

I wont be surprised if both do

 

[Daniel McL]

Lachie Weller could really breakout as he'll play full time midfield.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Both will improve SC scoring wise, enuff to be a forward keeper is the quandary

Maybe De Goey, given the history of injuries with Smith .....plus i'm nervous with players going to clubs with diff gameplans

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Lachie Weller could really breakout as he'll play full time midfield.

Good point .....awkward price, plus my 2018 resolution is no outside mids for SC

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Maybe De Goey, given the history of injuries with Smith .....plus i'm nervous with players going to clubs with diff gameplans

I would be worries but its Essendon. Biggest point scoring team, especially through the midfield and play heaps in perfect conditions under the roof, small ground, easy draw etc

 

[Daniel McL]

Good point .....awkward price, plus my 2018 resolution is no outside mids for SC

Very awkward price, but I think he could be an inside mid it's just Freo didn't play him there. If he plays in centre bounces for the Suns reckon he could score well.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I would be worries but its Essendon. Biggest point scoring team, especially through the midfield and play heaps in perfect conditions under the roof, small ground, easy draw etc

Yes but that diff gameplan, fast free flowing footy, was the death toll for Jobe Watson ......Smith's not quick IIRC, is he suited to ESS, or a SYD, or even a West Coast style?

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Very awkward price, but I think he could be an inside mid it's just Freo didn't play him there. If he plays in centre bounces for the Suns reckon he could score well.

I actually think Weller will suit the GC style .......but that price?

 

[Daniel McL]

I actually think Weller will suit the GC style .......but that price?

Yep very awkward price as I said. I'll be considering him but likely not to go with him because of that price.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Yep very awkward price as I said. I'll be considering him but likely not to go with him because of that price.

Probably if i had a choice between Weller @ $394K or O'mera @ $315K ......think i'll go the latter ATM for a M6 position

 

[Daniel McL]

Probably if i had a choice between Weller @ $394K or O'mera @ $315K ......think i'll go the latter ATM for a M6 position

If I had to choose between those two I'd definitely go Weller, bit more expensive but a lot more durable. I just don't think I'll be picking anyone between $300K-$400K. I'll either pay a bit more for someone like Coniglio, or a bit less for someone around $200K-$250K

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Yes but that diff gameplan, fast free flowing footy, was the death toll for Jobe Watson ......Smith's not quick IIRC, is he suited to ESS, or a SYD, or even a West Coast style?

Might have to take a look at his role in JLT. I like him. Reckon he will excel at Essendon. FWD pocket and run off the square at times.

 

[Chism]

Lobb is a LOCK for me and will score massive for 396k with Mummy gone.

No Ruck / Forward DPP is a bit of a prick but still he is worth your F4 spot.

 

[Shibby_Dons]

Some very tempting Mid Pricers around.
Birchall - Price makes him tempting, gut says he will average around 75-80, I also don't mind the defender premium choices this year so may stick with the gut and avoid Birchall.

O'Meara - Actually don't mind the selection this year. Although I tend to try stay away from midfield mid pricers (I did get burnt this year)

Coniglio - Is the one midfield mid pricer whom I am really tempted by. Only issue is although he is cheap you are picking him as a keeper at that price. Wouldn't be the worst M8/M9 but guess the question gets asked does he finish in the top 15 Mids. Also hasn't put together a full season yet.

Christenson - I feel as if there are not too many stand out forward premiums so if decide to take a few chances this year it will be in the forward line and reckon he could be a POD and potential value. Keen to see where he fits in and what role he will play.

Bennell - Same as Christenson although won't be a pod, can see him being a popular selection.

Lobb - Would have been a lock if had the DPP. Would be tough to pass on if does play the #1 ruck role


Other Mid prices which I'm keen to see people's opinions on are Armitage, Rioli, Lids, Barlow and Hanley. Barlow and Hanley like Coniglio would have to be keepers and definitely capable of achieving that but don't want to be carrying too much risk so will probably avoid that rollercoaster.

Lids, Armitage and Rioli would have to have huge preseasons to tempt me I reckon.

2-3 Mid pricers I reckon I would be comfortable carrying. Maybe only 2 if I start players like Gawn Fyfe Beams and Nic Nat.