AFL 2019 - AFL Round 12

[the_big_sav]

Scott in to $3 as next Carlton coach. Short odds but I reckon he got the offer weeks ago. Most likely a 4-5 year contract which North couldn't or wouldn't match.

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scott will be at stk next year

 

[NonPhixion]

Blues come in 2 points after the official sacking. Books making a mistake IMO

Yeh I agree, Some will disagree but I don't think Bolton is a bad coach at all. Can't see Teague, or any coach for that matter making any difference to the team next week and the rest of the season. Bit of a knee-jerk reaction by Carlton imo. LoGiudice is a moron and SOS has poorly managed the list.

 

[Mazza1234678]

Yeh I agree, Some will disagree but I don't think Bolton is a bad coach at all. Can't see Teague, or any coach for that matter making any difference to the team next week and the rest of the season. Bit of a knee-jerk reaction by Carlton imo. LoGiudice is a moron and SOS has poorly managed the list.

If u look at the last 2 games both sides have played Brissy have blown them of the Park and since then Brissy have gotten better ten fold and Carlton 10 times worse

Absolute nightmare match up for them with the way Brissy move the ball

They could bring back jock mchale from the dead and he couldn’t bring them to victory here

 

[chrisdon16]

View attachment 685837

Na meant the team comes out and plays well after sacking the coach.

 

[iluvparis]

Yeh I agree, Some will disagree but I don't think Bolton is a bad coach at all. Can't see Teague, or any coach for that matter making any difference to the team next week and the rest of the season. Bit of a knee-jerk reaction by Carlton imo. LoGiudice is a moron and SOS has poorly managed the list.

Lol - knee jerk reaction!?!? WTF - bloke has been there 4 years and had won 4 of his last 48!?!?! That is one of the worst coaching records in history - how long where they supposed to wait?

 

[iluvparis]

Na meant the team comes out and plays well after sacking the coach.

Through all the mental bullshit that gets posted on here a coach sacking is one that has been statistically proven to significantly improve a teams performance the very next week.

 

[GROTTO]

Lol - knee jerk reaction!?!? WTF - bloke has been there 4 years and had won 4 of his last 48!?!?! That is one of the worst coaching records in history - how long where they supposed to wait?

At least until the Crows had Pick 1 secured. FFS.

 

[GROTTO]

Through all the mental ******** that gets posted on here a coach sacking is one that has been statistically proven to significantly improve a teams performance the very next week.

North did it the best.

Its like they sacked Scott twice. Once before the game and once after.

 

[NonPhixion]

Lol - knee jerk reaction!?!? WTF - bloke has been there 4 years and had won 4 of his last 48!?!?! That is one of the worst coaching records in history - how long where they supposed to wait?

We both know he has had f*ck all to work with for 4 years. Arguably taken over one of the worst lists in history too. To be fair, I did expect them to improve more than they have this year. But the injuries really cruelled Carlton this year more than the previous 3, especially down back. Let me just say this, Carlton will not be better off for the remainder of the year with Teague at the helm, they might sneak 1 or 2 more wins, but who is to say that would have differed under Bolton. They should have at least given him till the end of the year to make this decision. The cold facts are that the list has been in a horrible position since he took over, its easy to call the coach the scapegoat. Then you have blokes like SOS behind the scenes screwing over the club anyway he can. If I was a Carlton supporter I would be wanting questions raised to the list management, because its been terrible.
Take a look at the team that lined up last week against Essendon:
x4 players over 24.
Casboult - Absolute spud of a player, dont care what anyone says he doesn't belong in the AFL
E. Curnow - Role player at best
Fasolo - not up to AFL standard anymore. Doesn't work hard enough and is nowhere near fit enough.
Kreuzer - good player when hes up and running, but far to injury- prone.
Aside from Cripps who is A+, the rest are just kids that need more development. There are some guns in the making there for sure, Mckay, Walsh, Weitering, Curnow, who are nowhere near their peak and still finding consistency.
The player changes at the end of 2017 season were dreadful imo. Of the 12 players brought in at that time id argue that only 2 of those (Dow & Kennedy) are of AFL standard. Seriously the rest are all busts. Surely im not the only one that sees this, why isnt SOS scrutinised?
Im harping on but just telling it how i see it.

 

[chrisdon16]

Through all the mental ******** that gets posted on here a coach sacking is one that has been statistically proven to significantly improve a teams performance the very next week.

It's Carlton. Don't think a coaching change will suddenly rejuvenate this playing group to knock off the lions, who are choc full of confidence and playing for finals.

Which coaching changes are you referring to? Off the top of my head I can only think of a few mid season sackings in recent memory. Obviously Scott. Hird?

 

[iluvparis]

We both know he has had f*ck all to work with for 4 years. Arguably taken over one of the worst lists in history too. To be fair, I did expect them to improve more than they have this year. But the injuries really cruelled Carlton this year more than the previous 3, especially down back. Let me just say this, Carlton will not be better off for the remainder of the year with Teague at the helm, they might sneak 1 or 2 more wins, but who is to say that would have differed under Bolton. They should have at least given him till the end of the year to make this decision. The cold facts are that the list has been in a horrible position since he took over, its easy to call the coach the scapegoat. Then you have blokes like SOS behind the scenes screwing over the club anyway he can. If I was a Carlton supporter I would be wanting questions raised to the list management, because its been terrible.
Take a look at the team that lined up last week against Essendon:
x4 players over 24.
Casboult - Absolute spud of a player, dont care what anyone says he doesn't belong in the AFL
E. Curnow - Role player at best
Fasolo - not up to AFL standard anymore. Doesn't work hard enough and is nowhere near fit enough.
Kreuzer - good player when hes up and running, but far to injury- prone.
Aside from Cripps who is A+, the rest are just kids that need more development. There are some guns in the making there for sure, Mckay, Walsh, Weitering, Curnow, who are nowhere near their peak and still finding consistency.
The player changes at the end of 2017 season were dreadful imo. Of the 12 players brought in at that time id argue that only 2 of those (Dow & Kennedy) are of AFL standard. Seriously the rest are all busts. Surely im not the only one that sees this, why isnt SOS scrutinised?
Im harping on but just telling it how i see it.

Errr wut? The fact that he could only coach us to 4 wins from his last 48 attempts suggests that it probably would have been different (worse) under Bolton. What's the point of giving him to the end of the year if we are going to dump him anyway.

If the list was so horrible when he took it over how was he able to win 7 and 6 games in his first couple of years? We have been on a downward spiral ever since then.

It is absolutely laughable that anyone could defend a coach who has won 4 of his last 48 games - even GWS and GC were not this bad when they entered the comp with a bunch of kids.

Those are the COLD HARD FACTS.

SOS also has to go as should the entire development crew and the board but that doesn't change the fact that BOLTON WAS ONE OF THE WORST COACHES IN LEAGUE HISTORY AND HAD EVERY RIGHT TO BE SACKED TODAY.

 

[iluvparis]

It's Carlton. Don't think a coaching change will suddenly rejuvenate this playing group to knock off the lions, who are choc full of confidence and playing for finals.

Which coaching changes are you referring to? Off the top of my head I can only think of a few mid season sackings in recent memory. Obviously Scott. Hird?

A study was conducted across a range of sports - teams significantly outperformed the week after the coach was sacked.

You could have said this a week ago:

It's North. Don't think a coaching change will suddenly rejuvenate this playing group to knock off the tigers, who are choc full of confidence and playing for finals.

 

[Mazza1234678]

A study was conducted across a range of sports - teams significantly outperformed the week after the coach was sacked.

You could have said this a week ago:

It's North. Don't think a coaching change will suddenly rejuvenate this playing group to knock off the tigers, who are choc full of confidence and playing for finals.

U just can’t compare north to Carlton, north do have a graders across every line, aside from Cripps there is no other a grader

This Carlton side is bordering on melbourne in the dark days

We’re all reading too much into it

 

[Mazza1234678]

https://coupler.foxsports.com.au/ap...s/news-story/d747d907cd1edb605cfe7760d50c7306

There is more losses than wins there and Carlton’s last caretaker game they got done by 60

 

[chrisdon16]

A study was conducted across a range of sports - teams significantly outperformed the week after the coach was sacked.

You could have said this a week ago:

It's North. Don't think a coaching change will suddenly rejuvenate this playing group to knock off the tigers, who are choc full of confidence and playing for finals.

A range of sports. What if that study was conducted with every team as bad as Carlton? the results would be vastly different.

Mazza is right, can't compare Carlton to North. North have been poor this season but they've made prelims in recent history. Carlton are in a different category.

 

[Mazza1234678]

Also FYI

Carlton are coming off a 6 day break in a wet slogfest and Richmond came off a 6 day turnaround against north after playing the dons in a swamp for the Dreamtime game

 

[targett]

CARETAKER SPIKE OR MYTH?

How teams have performed in their first game after a mid-season coach departure.

2001 - Ben Allan takes over the Dockers - Lose to Richmond (4th) by 38 points
2001 - Grant Thomas takes over the Saints - Lose to Bulldogs (10th) by 34 points.
2002 - Paul Roos takes over the Swans - Defeat Fremantle (13th) by 77 points.
2007 - Mark Riley takes over the Demons - Defeat Carlton (15th) by 23 points.
2007 - Mark Harvey takes over the Dockers - Defeat Adelaide (8th) by 25 points.
2007 - Brett Ratten takers over the Blues - Lose to St Kilda (9th) by 10 points.
2009 - Jade Rawlings takes over the Tigers - Defeat West Coast (11th) by 15 points.
2009 - Darren Crocker takes over the Roos - Lose to Bulldogs (3rd) by 22 points.
2010 - Matthew Primus takes over the Power - Lose to Bulldogs (4th) by 36 points.
2011 - Mark Bickley takes over the Crows - Defeat Port (16th) by 32 points.
2011 - Todd Viney takes over the Demons - Lose to Carlton (5th) by 76 points.
2011 - Paul Williams takes over the Dogs - Defeat Port (16th) by 60 points.
2012 - Garry Hocking takes over the Power - Lose to Hawthorn (1st) by 72 points.
2013 - Neil Craig takes over the Demons - Lose to St Kilda(16th) by 35 points.
2013 - Mark Harvey takes over the Lions - Defeat the Giants(18th) 60 points.
2015 - John Barker takes over and the Blues - Lose to Sydney(4th) by 60 points.
2015 - Matthew Egan takes over the Bombers - Lose to Gold Coast (16th) by 2 points.
2017 - Dean Solomon takes over the Suns - Lose to Brisbane (18th) by 58 points.
2019 - Rhyce Shaw takes over the Roos -Defeat the Tigers (4th) by 37 points

New Coach 8w-11L @42.1%
Average Losing Margin 41.12 pts
Average Winning Margin 41.71

 

[RooTed]

Leans at moment
o161.5 Tigers/Cats
u168.5 Blues/Lions
u148.5 GC/NM
o162.5 Crows/GWS
o152.5 Pies/Dees (Weather Watch 'G Monday)

 

[iluvparis]

CARETAKER SPIKE OR MYTH?

How teams have performed in their first game after a mid-season coach departure.

2001 - Ben Allan takes over the Dockers - Lose to Richmond (4th) by 38 points
2001 - Grant Thomas takes over the Saints - Lose to Bulldogs (10th) by 34 points.
2002 - Paul Roos takes over the Swans - Defeat Fremantle (13th) by 77 points.
2007 - Mark Riley takes over the Demons - Defeat Carlton (15th) by 23 points.
2007 - Mark Harvey takes over the Dockers - Defeat Adelaide (8th) by 25 points.
2007 - Brett Ratten takers over the Blues - Lose to St Kilda (9th) by 10 points.
2009 - Jade Rawlings takes over the Tigers - Defeat West Coast (11th) by 15 points.
2009 - Darren Crocker takes over the Roos - Lose to Bulldogs (3rd) by 22 points.
2010 - Matthew Primus takes over the Power - Lose to Bulldogs (4th) by 36 points.
2011 - Mark Bickley takes over the Crows - Defeat Port (16th) by 32 points.
2011 - Todd Viney takes over the Demons - Lose to Carlton (5th) by 76 points.
2011 - Paul Williams takes over the Dogs - Defeat Port (16th) by 60 points.
2012 - Garry Hocking takes over the Power - Lose to Hawthorn (1st) by 72 points.
2013 - Neil Craig takes over the Demons - Lose to St Kilda(16th) by 35 points.
2013 - Mark Harvey takes over the Lions - Defeat the Giants(18th) 60 points.
2015 - John Barker takes over and the Blues - Lose to Sydney(4th) by 60 points.
2015 - Matthew Egan takes over the Bombers - Lose to Gold Coast (16th) by 2 points.
2017 - Dean Solomon takes over the Suns - Lose to Brisbane (18th) by 58 points.
2019 - Rhyce Shaw takes over the Roos -Defeat the Tigers (4th) by 37 points

New Coach 8w-11L @42.1%
Average Losing Margin 41.12 pts
Average Winning Margin 41.71

That's great - what were the lines in those games?

 

[iluvparis]

In 2011 he released a paper titled “Does Manager Turnover Improve Firm Performance? Evidence from Dutch Soccer, 1986–2004”1. According to the paper, over the time studied the average season saw around 50% of teams changed managers, and of these, about 44% were forced resignations. Dr ter Weel studied the performance of not only the teams who fired their boss when times were tough, but also those who stuck with the beleaguered coach and weathered out the season. The paper found no difference in performance between the two groups:
“What is clear is that performance increases after one period are significant but that the new manager performs worse compared to the control group in the next three periods he is in charge”.

 

[iluvparis]

U just can’t compare north to Carlton, north do have a graders across every line, aside from Cripps there is no other a grader

This Carlton side is bordering on melbourne in the dark days

We’re all reading too much into it

Interestingly at Round 6 Carlton where rated higher than North by the unbiased squiggle.

 

[targett]

That's great - what were the lines in those games?

I only have the Lines from June 2009 so i didnt add it in .

 

[maskmcgee]

Brisbane odds are a joke, 60+ 9.50$?
It's a Carlton side that couldn't beat Essendon. They are terrible. Lions come to play they could win by 100+.

 

[GROTTO]

That's great - what were the lines in those games?

Well for starters 8w-11L, you would assume that they went into those games as dogs so they covered in 8/19 at the very least.

 

[maskmcgee]

Brisbane -99.5 $81. 25% chance at worst that happens.