Before Carlton's outs, had them winning it by 22. But talking straight footy, at the moment North are probably the worst team in the comp based on form (along with the dees). Whilst Carlton are actually playing pretty good, their confidence is rising. At the moment it's a toss of the coin game with Carlton's outs. Can't see North winning it by 3+ goals. Only 2 weeks ago the blues smashed the dogs by 44 and were very impressive last week.
The outs are being slightly overrated. McGovern will hurt the structure a bit up forward, he's a presence but he was very quiet in the Dogs game and they still belted them. Kreuzer is the big out, could be the difference between a win and a loss. It's going to be a fascinating contest.
Might be slightly bias because I've seen the harm that missing your best ball users out of defence can do as a North fan (as in, North don't really have any Docherty/Simpson tier players and struggle to say we have one of Newman 2019 form right now), but I'd say that missing your 3 top kicks out of defence would hurt.