Position 2019 Defenders

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SHAKESPEARE said:
He is my D4, but really...he will not play
Click to expand...
I kinda hope he doesn't play until Round 2, as I know I will pick him and he will just get re-injured!
 
Changa10 said:
I kinda hope he doesn't play until Round 2, as I know I will pick him and he will just get re-injured!
Click to expand...
thought the same thing about Wells a few years back...did it anyway and he was wonderful.:rainbow::rainbow:
then he left us for the Pies and went back to his old ways.:p
Back Birch in if he's named i reckon!:thumbsu:
 

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HLM* said:
Really want him in my side but can’t look past Witherden. Think Andrews has a huge year.
Click to expand...

Don't get the love for Witherden or Andrews.
Neither have done much to suggest they'll be a top 6 defender, or even top 10. Will require a trade if you want the best defence.
May as well save some cash and grab Newman/Williams instead. IMO they also have a better chance of being a top 6, or top 10 defender.

Withers? Maybe in a year or two. Still has that fresh new car smell about him. Only 20yo, IMO he will remain inconsistent and average under 90.
No doubting this kids ability though. Will be a beauty.

Andrews? I like Harris as a player. Will be an absolute gun. Rightly rewarded with vice-captaincy.
But KPD have to be amazing to be amongst the high scorers. Even a guy like Rance could only manage over 90 avg twice. Rance also averaged over 80 in his third year, with averages in the 80's over the following three years.
Jezza Gov was probably the best defender last year, and could only manage 89. I know Andrews went 88, but I don't know how much higher he can go.
Surely he will drop quite a bit in price at some stage, after a couple of lockdown jobs?
Or is he playing in the ruck more this year? Or more time as a distributor?

There's also the Lions factor. I'm trying to get players in winning teams as there will be more points to share around. It's a silly thing, but makes sense in my head.
IMO Brisbane will continue to be on the lower rungs of the ladder this year.

Better to grab two or three of your planned final six, then maybe add a speculator. I have Williams for now. Could switch to Newman. Could also go 3-0-5 down back, even 4-0-4 if the forward rookies look strong.

If anyone does start with these guys, I hope they work out for you. Just not for me.
 
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Raveneyes said:
Don't get the love for Witherden or Andrews.
Neither have done much to suggest they'll be a top 6 defender, or even top 10. Will require a trade if you want the best defence.
May as well save some cash and grab Newman/Williams instead. IMO they also have a better chance of being a top 6, or top 10 defender.

Withers? Maybe in a year or two. Still has that fresh car smell about him. Only 20yo, IMO he will remain inconsistent and average under 90.
No doubting this kids ability though. Will be a beauty.

Andrews? I like Harris as a player. Will be an absolute gun. Rightly rewarded with vice-captaincy.
But KPD have to be amazing to be amongst the high scorers. Even a guy like Rance could only manage over 90 avg twice. Rance also averaged over 80 in his third year, with averages in the 80's over the following three years.
Jezza Gov was probably the best defender last year, and could only manage 89. I know Andrews went 88, but I don't know how much higher he can go.
Surely he will drop quite a bit in price at some stage, after a couple of lockdown jobs?
Or is he playing in the ruck more this year? Or more time as a distributor?

There's also the Lions factor. I'm trying to get players in winning teams as there will be more points to share around. It's a silly thing, but makes sense in my head.
IMO Brisbane will continue to be on the lower rungs of the ladder this year.

Better to grab two or three of your planned final six, then maybe add a speculator. I have Williams for now. Could switch to Newman. Could also go 3-0-5 down back, even 4-0-4 if the forward rookies look strong.

If anyone does start with these guys, I hope they work out for you. Just not for me.
Click to expand...
You say maybe in a year or two with Withers, but this year is very unique with the introduction of the new kick in rule. Considering he takes most of brissy’s kick ins, do you not think he could come on in SC a year or two earlier than what you predict?
 
JDWCE said:
You say maybe in a year or two with Withers, but this year is very unique with the introduction of the new kick in rule. Considering he takes most of brissy’s kick ins, do you not think he could come on in SC a year or two earlier than what you predict?
Click to expand...
New kick in rule is a big reason why he’s in my side.
 
JDWCE said:
You say maybe in a year or two with Withers, but this year is very unique with the introduction of the new kick in rule. Considering he takes most of brissy’s kick ins, do you not think he could come on in SC a year or two earlier than what you predict?
Click to expand...

Excellent point. I've spent a little time thinking about this.

Has there been discussion on BF about the kick-in rule and how it affects scoring? If so, I haven't seen it. So my take is this.

I'm presuming that kick-ins need to hit the target to be effective and score highly. Possibly only long kicks.
Those chip kicks to the pocket or 20 metres away are unlikely to score highly, based on this from the SC website.
1549097320198.png
There's no pressure on a kick-in. I doubt those chip kicks would score 4 points each.

It would also be interesting to see the % of kicks that are also intercepted by the opposition. I presume they will also be -4 (clanger kick).
I also presume that long kicks to packs are not effective, even if your team retains possession off hands. Wouldn't it require a mark to be effective?

------------------------
SCENARIO
So then let's say the opposition score 12 behinds.
Hypothetically, the player takes 9 of those kick-ins. Presuming he plays-on 8 times, as you would with the extra 5m gap to the opponent, and without the need to kick to himself.
1 Doesn't play on before disposing the ball. (0 points - standard kick-in)
4 are long kicks to packs, unmarked, resulting in a contested loose ball. (0 points - ineffective kick)
1 long kick that is marked by a teammate. (4 points - effective kick)
1 is either intercepted, or allows an opposition player back into the passage of play (as above). (Maybe -4 points clanger?)
2 are short kicks/handballs to a teammate while under no pressure (as above). (Maybe 2 points? adjusted as per above)

So maybe the player is only 2 points better off?

------------------------

VARIABLES
There'll be link plays etc resulting in multiple possessions.
There'll be games where the opposition score 8 behinds, and he's only on the ground for 3 or 4 of them.
There's those other games where he'll take 10+ kick-ins.

Even if Withers was 6 points better per game than last year, that would give him 89ppg. 12 defenders went above 90 last year.
If you add in natural improvement (which is not guaranteed), he might push into the top 10 or top 6. Would need a lot to go right.
We also assume Witherden will continue as the main guy for Lions kick-ins. What if this changes?

--------------------------

Despite all of this, Withers could very well go 95+. However I'm happy to bypass him now, then re-evaluate later on in the year.
In any case, I doubt he'll rise much in price.
Doubt he'll be top 4 defender either, and they are the guys we aim to have first. So he would be one of my final upgrade targets if he does prove me wrong.

At the moment, I have locked in tried and true defenders. Whitfield locked plus either Laird or Lloyd, then take someone like Crisp (depending on fitness), and then decide whether I will take Newman/Williams, depending on the quality of forward/defence rookies.

Question: Does everyone assume that all kick-in takers will automatically get 20 points more per game? If so, wouldn't guys like Michael Hurley and Heath Shaw come into play again?

Also, is there a stat for kick-ins taken per game anywhere? Will be interesting.

Rambling over.

I'm also happy to be corrected re: kick-in scoring by those who are better in the know than I. I'd love to know! This is simply my take on it.
 
Raveneyes said:
Excellent point. I've spent a little time thinking about this.

Has there been discussion on BF about the kick-in rule and how it affects scoring? If so, I haven't seen it. So my take is this.

I'm presuming that kick-ins need to hit the target to be effective and score highly. Possibly only long kicks.
Those chip kicks to the pocket or 20 metres away are unlikely to score highly, based on this from the SC website.
View attachment 613975
There's no pressure on a kick-in. I doubt those chip kicks would score 4 points each.

It would also be interesting to see the % of kicks that are also intercepted by the opposition. I presume they will also be -4 (clanger kick).
I also presume that long kicks to packs are not effective, even if your team retains possession off hands. Wouldn't it require a mark to be effective?

------------------------
SCENARIO
So then let's say the opposition score 12 behinds.
Hypothetically, the player takes 9 of those kick-ins. Presuming he plays-on 8 times, as you would with the extra 5m gap to the opponent, and without the need to kick to himself.
1 Doesn't play on before disposing the ball. (0 points - standard kick-in)
4 are long kicks to packs, unmarked, resulting in a contested loose ball. (0 points - ineffective kick)
1 long kick that is marked by a teammate. (4 points - effective kick)
1 is either intercepted, or allows an opposition player back into the passage of play (as above). (Maybe -4 points clanger?)
2 are short kicks/handballs to a teammate while under no pressure (as above). (Maybe 2 points? adjusted as per above)

So maybe the player is only 2 points better off?

------------------------

VARIABLES
There'll be link plays etc resulting in multiple possessions.
There'll be games where the opposition score 8 behinds, and he's only on the ground for 3 or 4 of them.
There's those other games where he'll take 10+ kick-ins.

Even if Withers was 6 points better per game than last year, that would give him 89ppg. 12 defenders went above 90 last year.
If you add in natural improvement (which is not guaranteed), he might push into the top 10 or top 6. Would need a lot to go right.
We also assume Witherden will continue as the main guy for Lions kick-ins. What if this changes?

--------------------------

Despite all of this, Withers could very well go 95+. However I'm happy to bypass him now, then re-evaluate later on in the year.
In any case, I doubt he'll rise much in price.
Doubt he'll be top 4 defender either, and they are the guys we aim to have first. So he would be one of my final upgrade targets if he does prove me wrong.

At the moment, I have locked in tried and true defenders. Whitfield locked plus either Laird or Lloyd, then take someone like Crisp (depending on fitness), and then decide whether I will take Newman/Williams, depending on the quality of forward/defence rookies.

Question: Does everyone assume that all kick-in takers will automatically get 20 points more per game? If so, wouldn't guys like Michael Hurley and Heath Shaw come into play again?

Also, is there a stat for kick-ins taken per game anywhere? Will be interesting.

Rambling over.

I'm also happy to be corrected re: kick-in scoring by those who are better in the know than I. I'd love to know! This is simply my take on it.
Click to expand...
Reading this, my quick take on it is that the guys who are more effective over longer distances are the players to go for. Short and Hurn come to mind, as does Ryan to a lesser degree.

It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.
 
Raveneyes said:
Excellent point. I've spent a little time thinking about this.

Has there been discussion on BF about the kick-in rule and how it affects scoring? If so, I haven't seen it. So my take is this.

I'm presuming that kick-ins need to hit the target to be effective and score highly. Possibly only long kicks.
Those chip kicks to the pocket or 20 metres away are unlikely to score highly, based on this from the SC website.
View attachment 613975
There's no pressure on a kick-in. I doubt those chip kicks would score 4 points each.

It would also be interesting to see the % of kicks that are also intercepted by the opposition. I presume they will also be -4 (clanger kick).
I also presume that long kicks to packs are not effective, even if your team retains possession off hands. Wouldn't it require a mark to be effective?

------------------------
SCENARIO
So then let's say the opposition score 12 behinds.
Hypothetically, the player takes 9 of those kick-ins. Presuming he plays-on 8 times, as you would with the extra 5m gap to the opponent, and without the need to kick to himself.
1 Doesn't play on before disposing the ball. (0 points - standard kick-in)
4 are long kicks to packs, unmarked, resulting in a contested loose ball. (0 points - ineffective kick)
1 long kick that is marked by a teammate. (4 points - effective kick)
1 is either intercepted, or allows an opposition player back into the passage of play (as above). (Maybe -4 points clanger?)
2 are short kicks/handballs to a teammate while under no pressure (as above). (Maybe 2 points? adjusted as per above)

So maybe the player is only 2 points better off?

------------------------

VARIABLES
There'll be link plays etc resulting in multiple possessions.
There'll be games where the opposition score 8 behinds, and he's only on the ground for 3 or 4 of them.
There's those other games where he'll take 10+ kick-ins.

Even if Withers was 6 points better per game than last year, that would give him 89ppg. 12 defenders went above 90 last year.
If you add in natural improvement (which is not guaranteed), he might push into the top 10 or top 6. Would need a lot to go right.
We also assume Witherden will continue as the main guy for Lions kick-ins. What if this changes?

--------------------------

Despite all of this, Withers could very well go 95+. However I'm happy to bypass him now, then re-evaluate later on in the year.
In any case, I doubt he'll rise much in price.
Doubt he'll be top 4 defender either, and they are the guys we aim to have first. So he would be one of my final upgrade targets if he does prove me wrong.

At the moment, I have locked in tried and true defenders. Whitfield locked plus either Laird or Lloyd, then take someone like Crisp (depending on fitness), and then decide whether I will take Newman/Williams, depending on the quality of forward/defence rookies.

Question: Does everyone assume that all kick-in takers will automatically get 20 points more per game? If so, wouldn't guys like Michael Hurley and Heath Shaw come into play again?

Also, is there a stat for kick-ins taken per game anywhere? Will be interesting.

Rambling over.

I'm also happy to be corrected re: kick-in scoring by those who are better in the know than I. I'd love to know! This is simply my take on it.
Click to expand...
I think (could be wrong) that long kicks to a pack (as mentioned above) count as effective. Can't recall why, but think it's something like 40m+ counts as effective if a 50-50 ball.

I agree with what you're saying though. Nobody will gain 20+ppg just because they kick it in.
 
ArdentEagle said:
Reading this, my quick take on it is that the guys who are more effective over longer distances are the players to go for. Short and Hurn come to mind, as does Ryan to a lesser degree.

It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.
Click to expand...

For sure. Those 4 points for an effective long kick are crucial to kick-ins. I have an eye on Hurn.

I would love to find some kick-in stats
- Who has taken most for each club
- Efficiency of kick-in disposal
- Average number of kick-ins per game etc.
- How the ball was disposed ie long kick, short kick, handball

Maybe I'm dreaming, but I thought I saw something like this once upon a time.
 
JustInsideFifty said:
I think (could be wrong) that long kicks to a pack (as mentioned above) count as effective. Can't recall why, but think it's something like 40m+ counts as effective if a 50-50 ball.

I agree with what you're saying though. Nobody will gain 20+ppg just because they kick it in.
Click to expand...

Would love some clarity on that point regarding long kicks to a pack. If they count as 4 points, load up on all the players who take kick-ins!
 

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Raveneyes said:
For sure. Those 4 points for an effective long kick are crucial to kick-ins. I have an eye on Hurn.

I would love to find some kick-in stats
- Who has taken most for each club
- Efficiency of kick-in disposal
- Average number of kick-ins per game etc.
- How the ball was disposed ie long kick, short kick, handball

Maybe I'm dreaming, but I thought I saw something like this once upon a time.
Click to expand...
Something like that was on afl.com today. There have been others lately too, possibly focussing on other stats?
AFL kick ins

I will try to find something about what makes a kick effective, maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow, maybe... :think:;)
 
Raveneyes said:
For sure. Those 4 points for an effective long kick are crucial to kick-ins. I have an eye on Hurn.

I would love to find some kick-in stats
- Who has taken most for each club
- Efficiency of kick-in disposal
- Average number of kick-ins per game etc.
- How the ball was disposed ie long kick, short kick, handball

Maybe I'm dreaming, but I thought I saw something like this once upon a time.
Click to expand...
Almost certain I saw an article for kick in stats and who takes them (%) from each club on the afl website less than a week ago
 
JustInsideFifty said:
Something like that was on afl.com today. There have been others lately too, possibly focussing on other stats?
AFL kick ins

I will try to find something about what makes a kick effective, maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow, maybe... :think:;)
Click to expand...

Nice one mate. Found it just after you did.

At least 16 players should improve, probably more. Are people thinking that Witherden is better at kicking in than the rest of them?
 
Hai_Newman said:
So your answer to an uncertain rule change is to cash up in that area? Hmmmm...
Click to expand...

By taking Whitfield, Lloyd, and Crisp? How is that cashing up?

If I was cashing up I'd take Hurn. But I don't think I could handle thinking about his rippling quads for a whole season.
 
Raveneyes said:
Nice one mate. Found it just after you did.

At least 16 players should improve, probably more. Are people thinking that Witherden is better at kicking in than the rest of them?
Click to expand...
Not necessarily. Probably more the fact he has natural progression and age on his side and takes a very high number of their kick ins. Probably has less question marks than some of the other blokes too
 
I can see the new rule changes benefiting the designated kick takers at clubs handsomely. For example, with the new kick in rule, a player can now grab the ball out of the bucket behind the goals and run the whole length of the field and kick a goal from 50. None of this kick it to yourself garbage. Tuck it under the arm and go for a real gallop type setup. Sicily to win the Coleman
 

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