2019 planning

[Keystone agony]

Do you take the risk ?? Obviously not now....

90% of teams on dt live were taking the risk. Suggesting that the risk was fairly limited.

I also think injuries to players who are locks in a lot of sides obviousily creates diversity and variety

 

[TedDougChris]

90% of teams on dt live were taking the risk. Suggesting that the risk was fairly limited.

I also think injuries to players who are locks in a lot of sides obviousily creates diversity and variety

Or concentrates people to fewer premium options.

Interesting stats though, hadn’t seen those numbers.

I took a risk with Libba last year which didn’t quite work as planned. Although he was coming back from ‘not giving a shit’ as opposed to injury....

 

[Keystone agony]

Or concentrates people to fewer premium options.

Interesting stats though, hadn’t seen those numbers.

I took a risk with Libba last year which didn’t quite work as planned. Although he was coming back from ‘not giving a shit’ as opposed to injury....

Id agree with you if the premium was likely to be owned by 10-15% ish

 

[4tune8]

With a few prices leaked I thought I'd rough out a team just to see how it looks.

DEF
Laird
Blakely
Z Williams
Rook
Rook
Rook

MID
Coniglio
Cripps
Oliver
J Kelly
B Crouch
Hannerbery
Liberatore
Rook

RUC
Grundy
Witts

FWD
Smith
Dangerfield
Dunkley
Setterfield
Rook
Rook

 

[Iceman!]

Birchall 350k
Libba 390k

Both super cheap. Obviously some risk attached to both, but potentially big rewards

Just on Birch

He possibly could have played at the end of last year if we were willing to gamble him in the big finals with no match fitness (chose to play it safe) but that means he is fully fit now and should be set to complete a full pre season with us and ready to launch again in 2019.

Just something to keep in mind for those thinking of jumping on him.

 

[Keystone agony]

Think Sam Walsh has locked himself into my side at the moment likely at M8

 

[Keystone agony]

With a few prices leaked I thought I'd rough out a team just to see how it looks.

DEF
Laird
Blakely
Z Williams
Rook
Rook
Rook

MID
Coniglio
Cripps
Oliver
J Kelly
B Crouch
Hannerbery
Liberatore
Rook

RUC
Grundy
Witts

FWD
Smith
Dangerfield
Dunkley
Setterfield
Rook
Rook

With the new mature agers possibly .... but i doubt there will be 12 basement price rookies playing round 1

Id be interested how many there were playing round 1 last year

 

[Keystone agony]

2018 Basement rookies who played round 1:

Doedee
Sam Murray
Holman
Zac Langdon
Willie Rioli
Bailey Banfield
Waterman
Billie Gowers
L.Murphy
Dom Barry
Finlayson

so yeh 11 fair enough then

 

[4tune8]

With the new mature agers possibly .... but i doubt there will be 12 basement price rookies playing round 1

Id be interested how many there were playing round 1 last year

With the new mature agers possibly .... but i doubt there will be 12 basement price rookies playing round 1

Id be interested how many there were playing round 1 last year

yeah, draft No.1 of 4658

 

[guero]

Do lions fans see Witherden continuing to take a large amount of kick outs next season? Think he may have some good improvement in him next year especially with the new rules depending how they apply to the scoring

Not a Lions fan, but I’ll give my opinion anyways. I like Witherden - should improve and is slightly underpriced due to an injury early in a late-season game. Can see him and Rich continuing to take most kick-ins for Brisbane.

With the new kick-in rules, you need to look at 2 things: players likely to take the kick-in and players looking at the biggest ppg boost because of a low play-on % last season. I’ve done a roughy on this extrapolating from an afl.com article in August last year and the winners are:

Luke Ryan 14-15ppg increase. Took most of Freo’s kick-ins (107) but only played on once.

Jake Lloyd 14ppg increase.

Hurn/Jayden Short 10ppg increase.

Shane Savage 8-9ppg increase.

Witherden/Kade/Sicily 7ppg increase.

Based on late-season games, Brodie Smith likely to take plenty of kick-ins for the Crows.

Food for thought. I’ll be starting a few kick-in specialist defenders that had a low 2018 play-on %.

 

[PAFC27]

What's wrong with Broadbent? Is he broken?

Pretty banged up. Not a guarantee for regular games either

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

Not a Lions fan, but I’ll give my opinion anyways. I like Witherden - should improve and is slightly underpriced due to an injury early in a late-season game. Can see him and Rich continuing to take most kick-ins for Brisbane.

With the new kick-in rules, you need to look at 2 things: players likely to take the kick-in and players looking at the biggest ppg boost because of a low play-on % last season. I’ve done a roughy on this extrapolating from an afl.com article in August last year and the winners are:

Luke Ryan 14-15ppg increase. Took most of Freo’s kick-ins (107) but only played on once.

Jake Lloyd 14ppg increase.

Hurn/Jayden Short 10ppg increase.

Shane Savage 8-9ppg increase.

Witherden/Kade/Sicily 7ppg increase.

Based on late-season games, Brodie Smith likely to take plenty of kick-ins for the Crows.

Food for thought. I’ll be starting a few kick-in specialist defenders that had a low 2018 play-on %.

Awesome thanks heaps! Not a huge fan of Brodie smith from a fantasy perspective usually but he is very appealing from a kick out point of view this year and at his price.

Very unsure at the moment between Blakely, Witherden and hurn and finding it hard to split them. Have seen Blakely score big when playing across half back but his midfield scores have been erratic and with his expected extra mid time I’m hoping to see a decent increase from him but can’t be assured. Can see both Witherden and hurn having a 10 odd point increase at the same time they too

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

Dt drawing board is updated with all the prices and new players for those that use it

 

[4tune8]

Dt drawing board is updated with all the prices and new players for those that use it

every time I try to sign up it says registrations closed?

 

[Keystone agony]

I think the new kick out rule is being over exaggerated. With the player only being back an extra 5 metres im not sure that changes as much kick out strategy as what people think it will. It really doesn't take professionals much more time to kick it to themselves then to simply just run and kick it. So i think more kick out will be taken near the square than previously thought.

If we think L.Ryans going to improve by 14-15 points than everyone should be picking him and thats before natural improvement.

 

[Cotchy9]

Think Brodie Smith is being a bit over rated. Sure he’s cheap, priced at 61. But he’s only averaged 80+ once (82). I think there’s 15 points in him, which is value, but I don’t think he’s a lock by any means

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

every time I try to sign up it says registrations closed?

I think it can only be used by people who have previously registered currently, not sure why but hopefully opens for everyone soon

 

[Keystone agony]

Think Brodie Smith is being a bit over rated. Sure he’s cheap, priced at 61. But he’s only averaged 80+ once (82). I think there’s 15 points in him, which is value, but I don’t think he’s a lock by any means

Priced at 58.9

They have the formula still wrong on dtlive ie based off last years magic number or the MN they thought it would be. Ie Westhoff didnt avg 103.9 which hes priced at.

So Brodie Smith should be at 58.9 im pretty sure.

But i see your point aswell. I think he could potentially be last years Seedsman which i wouldve been happy to start with. Pending the kick out rule it could benefit him aswell

 

[Keystone agony]

Already got a H2H question. Im guessing most will go the premium and rookie but

Luke Ryan + Brodie Smith
or
L.Whitfield + Rozee/J.Clark

 

[08elf]

Not a Lions fan, but I’ll give my opinion anyways. I like Witherden - should improve and is slightly underpriced due to an injury early in a late-season game. Can see him and Rich continuing to take most kick-ins for Brisbane.

With the new kick-in rules, you need to look at 2 things: players likely to take the kick-in and players looking at the biggest ppg boost because of a low play-on % last season. I’ve done a roughy on this extrapolating from an afl.com article in August last year and the winners are:

Luke Ryan 14-15ppg increase. Took most of Freo’s kick-ins (107) but only played on once.

Jake Lloyd 14ppg increase.

Hurn/Jayden Short 10ppg increase.

Shane Savage 8-9ppg increase.

Witherden/Kade/Sicily 7ppg increase.

Based on late-season games, Brodie Smith likely to take plenty of kick-ins for the Crows.

Food for thought. I’ll be starting a few kick-in specialist defenders that had a low 2018 play-on %.

I think people are reading into defenders getting a bump in scoring to mu

Already got a H2H question. Im guessing most will go the premium and rookie but

Luke Ryan + Brodie Smith
or
L.Whitfield + Rozee/J.Clark

Ryan will burn you away from Perth on recent history, scoring average at best. Smith doesn't pump out big numbers either. They could combine for 140-200.

Whitfield is expected to average 100+ minimum with a full-time MID role. Rookie defender will probably net 50-60 points av. A range of 150-180.

Premium rookie has other benefits by generating more cash for later upgrades which also need consideration. I've seen plenty charge out in fantasy but at the turn around lack the dayc to move in improving players.

That's why it's always start gun & rookie, unless the others had enough upside and cash generation to make it worthwhile.

 

[Keystone agony]

I think people are reading into defenders getting a bump in scoring to mu

Ryan will burn you away from Perth on recent history, scoring average at best. Smith doesn't pump out big numbers either. They could combine for 140-200.

Whitfield is expected to average 100+ minimum with a full-time MID role. Rookie defender will probably net 50-60 points av. A range of 150-180.

Premium rookie has other benefits by generating more cash for later upgrades which also need consideration. I've seen plenty charge out in fantasy but at the turn around lack the dayc to move in improving players.

That's why it's always start gun & rookie, unless the others had enough upside and cash generation to make it worthwhile.

Id love to see how much say 2 improving midpricers who improve by say 15 pts each go up in how much money combined between the 2 compared to the single rookie who improves by say a 25-30pt average and how much money they go up by

Edit: An example from last year might be

Seedsman (460k) + B.Williams (437k) = ~897k
vs
Whitfield (690k) + Rookie (170k) = ~860k

The 2 midpricers made 300k if you sold each at their highest point.

There were 4, 170k rookies to start 2018.

L.Murphy made 148k
Doedee made 338k
Sam Murray made 331k
Finlayson made 244k

So it depends very much so on picking the right rookies. We all had Finlayson, Doedee and Murray locked in last year as rookies. But then a decison between say a premium like Whitfield and L.Murphy vs B.Williams and Seedsman i feel you were probably better off going the later ie Midprice based on the numbers.

However...... Picking the right midpricers is far harder to do then just sitting back and locking in L.Murphy and Whitfield/Lloyd/K.Simpson as an example premium used.

 

[08elf]

For those that can't get onto DTLive:

 

[08elf]

First cut.....

 

[Keystone agony]

See Image for team

 

[4tune8]

See Image for team

nice 1st draft

like me I think you are gonna pounce on Titch/Macrae and Grundy when/if their prices drop.

I'd run Burgess on the FWD bench to give a bit of flexibility with Rozee

Don't know if I'd have Scrimshaw but who knows what the JLT might throw up

Heeney was disappointing for me in the last few rounds when he spent a bit of time back, but with Hanners out maybe there's more mid time.

But yeah, early days