AFL 2020 - AFL Finals week two (no aftertiming allowed)

[LukeParkerno1]

Kicking at ~63% which is well above AFL average for accuracy in 2020 before the Final.

5 shots/chances at goal with his season average would get him around 3+

That's what I'm working off plus if he wasn't out there having shots during the week I'd be shocked. He was missing ones from point blank last week.

 

[burge13]

I'd rather take some value, honestly $1.30 pops bore me. I'll have a 5-7 legger where I'll have a few of those but purely single bets I honestly don't do it. I rarely did it for Winx let alone a Brownlow Medal!

1.30 for a 99% chance is the very definition of value. i don't want to be involved in squabbles but had to point this out

Floyd Mayweather at 1.30 over Conor was the best value bet of our lifetime. Short odds don't always mean 'no value'

 

[LukeParkerno1]

1.30 for a 99% chance is the very definition of value. i don't want to be involved in squabbles but had to point this out

Floyd Mayweather at 1.30 over Conor was the best value bet of our lifetime. Short odds don't always mean 'no value'

Each to their own. It's not what I enjoy at all. Rather get $2.30 odd for something else even if it's an any time goal. I don't go near $1.30 chances unless it's Winx and frankly there's no Winx's lol

 

[The_Steadier]

I'd rather take some value, honestly $1.30 pops bore me. I'll have a 5-7 legger where I'll have a few of those but purely single bets I honestly don't do it. I rarely did it for Winx let alone a Brownlow Medal!

I haven't (and wouldn't) bet singles on 1.30 chances either.

It's the cherry on top of what I think is a winning multi cake is all.

Eating cherries all day by themselves would bore me too.


Meanwhile- for instance, the superstar that is rowan marshall is a red hot go for 15+ possies given he hit 20+ possies in 38% of games last year as solo ruck.

Unlike last year where he wilted at the end of the season under the strain of having solo rucked all year (averaged TOG of ~88% for the year)- he is currently fresh as a daisy having taken it easy in the forward line for half or more of virtually every game this year.

(FYI he's still managed to hit 15+ 8 times playing mainly as a fwd this year too btw)

He'll play near on 90% TOG in the ruck, against a ruckman who won't attempt to defend him, and gets more clearances than the rest of our midfield when rucking solo.

Marshall 15+ possies @ $2 is already immense value given that price is based on his performances this year spending 50%+ gametime as a fwd.

Marshall is as surer bet as zac jones at getting 15+ in my opinion, and jones is paying 75% less.

For those that enjoy a quality cherry on top (haha), i thoroughly (and unsurprisingly) recommend adding neale for brownlow- meaning you get a jawdropping $2.60 boosted on sportsbet for two studs to do what they are a very very good chance at doing.

I'd love to hear comments and criticisms from anyone who is equally generous in sharing their predictions and rationales.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Floyd Mayweather at 1.30 over Conor was the best value bet of our lifetime. Short odds don't always mean 'no value'

Not to cause another unnecessary argument but surely Biden @ 1.50 to win the CNN poll for the recent 'debate' was even better.

Mad props to whoever the dude was who found and posted that. Still spewing I only put a relatively small bet on it.

Same punter also claimed he got on @ 2 which is proper insane to me.

 

[Prochard123]

Each to their own. It's not what I enjoy at all. Rather get $2.30 odd for something else even if it's an any time goal. I don't go near $1.30 chances unless it's Winx and frankly there's no Winx's lol

Well I mean if you bet to have fun and not to make money, then you do you lol

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Well I mean if you bet to have fun and not to make money, then you do you lol

I've done fine doing it my way, have a limit, and well if I lose it so be it. Happy to play a few SGM's tonight without $1.30 pops

 

[Ohh Ok]

3.5u Steele over 20.5 disposals $1.82 (lads)

15/18 on this one this season. Crept down to 20.5 after being at 22.5 for a few weeks on the back of 18 and 16 disposals games.
Looking back to his 18 disposal game it appeared that he spent a solid portion of the game forward - they smoked GWS (also second most restrictive side for opponent disposals) so there was no need to risk him a week out from finals. Expecting him to bounce back tonight in a big game as the saints main ball winner, they’ll want him around the contest as much as possible, bringing his tackling presence against a tough side.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

3.5u Steele over 20.5 disposals $1.82 (lads)

15/18 on this one this season. Crept down to 20.5 after being at 22.5 for a few weeks on the back of 18 and 16 disposals games.
Looking back to his 18 disposal game it appeared that he spent a solid portion of the game forward - they smoked GWS (also second most restrictive side for opponent disposals) so there was no need to risk him a week out from finals. Expecting him to bounce back tonight in a big game as the saints main ball winner, they’ll want him around the contest as much as possible, bringing his tackling presence against a tough side.

Sort of avoiding the 20+ markets in finals, think they are a bit of a trap. Possessions are even more contested. Even in full game seasons possessions go down in finals.

 

[Prochard123]

3.5u Steele over 20.5 disposals $1.82 (lads)

15/18 on this one this season. Crept down to 20.5 after being at 22.5 for a few weeks on the back of 18 and 16 disposals games.
Looking back to his 18 disposal game it appeared that he spent a solid portion of the game forward - they smoked GWS (also second most restrictive side for opponent disposals) so there was no need to risk him a week out from finals. Expecting him to bounce back tonight in a big game as the saints main ball winner, they’ll want him around the contest as much as possible, bringing his tackling presence against a tough side.

As a rough guide recent form means more than early season performances, unless you can justify why Steele has underperformed recently.

I still think Steele is more likely to get over 20.5 disposals, but no way would i put 3.5 U on him

 

[LukeParkerno1]

As a rough guide recent form means more than early season performances, unless you can justify why Steele has underperformed recently.

I still think Steele is more likely to get over 20.5 disposals, but no way would i put 3.5 U on him

In the Pies game and yes I know it's one game but I think only 2 hit 20+

 

[GROTTO]

Sort of avoiding the 20+ markets in finals, think they are a bit of a trap. Possessions are even more contested. Even in full game seasons possessions go down in finals.

I agree its a death trap.

I think this is more related to the reduction in game time than anything else?

Last years semi's had 18 players hit 20+.

 

[Prochard123]

In the Pies game and yes I know it's one game but I think only 2 hit 20+

Well not sure if I understand this comment but I think 4 players hit 20+ in the Collingwood vs West Coast game?

Although, you probably can make an exception for Steele in the WBD game, since they're probably the TOUGHEST SIDE for pure inside mids to do well again.

GWS game was a little dodgy, but if you write that off as an outlier, you probably would think it likely that he hits 21 disposals.

However, even though we can make excuses for the 16 disposal game, it still has to be factored into the odds.

I would say the 2 most relevant games to deciding the disposal line of Steele would be:

(1) His final performance against WBD (16 disposals)
(2) His last game vs Richmond this year (21 disposals)

And while everything else supports Steele getting to 21, the lingering doubt is strong enough for me not to put a large bet on him.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I agree its a death trap.

I think this is more related to the reduction in game time than anything else?

Last years semi's had 18 players hit 20+.

Yep, the old 25-27 disposals is 20+ in these new times. They are a HUGE trap. Youa re almost better to take a winner in group 1 (even Treloar is $2 in that market).

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Well not sure if I understand this comment but I think 4 players hit 20+ in the Collingwood vs West Coast game?

Although, you probably can make an exception for Steele in the WBD game, since they're probably the TOUGHEST SIDE for pure inside mids to do well again.

GWS game was a little dodgy, but if you write that off as an outlier, you probably would think it likely that he hits 21 disposals.

However, even though we can make excuses for the 16 disposal game, it still has to be factored into the odds.

I would say the 2 most relevant games to deciding the disposal line of Steele would be:

(1) His final performance against WBD (16 disposals)
(2) His last game vs Richmond this year (21 disposals)

And while everything else supports Steele getting to 21, the lingering doubt is strong enough for me not to put a large bet on him.

Might have been the other game then. I know tehre was one game where I played a few 20+ and they all fell short. I'm going to take 15+ with a little more surety.

 

[GROTTO]

Yep, the old 25-27 disposals is 20+ in these new times. They are a HUGE trap. Youa re almost better to take a winner in group 1 (even Treloar is $2 in that market).

TBH its not surprising when you consider 4 mins shaved off the clock each quarter in 2020, thats almost a quarter of possessions missing from 2019. (4x4mins lost)

The goal scoring markets have been more attributed to forwards simply missing goals (shanking) that they should be kicking, often in decent conditions. There has been no excuse for this IMO.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

TBH its not surprising when you consider 4 mins shaved off the clock each quarter in 2020, thats almost a quarter of possessions missing from 2019. (4x4mins lost)

The goal scoring markets have been more attributed to forwards simply missing goals (shanking) that they should be kicking, often in decent conditions. There has been no excuse for this IMO.

Yep. It's why I'm avoiding these 20+ things unless it's Treloar, Neale or Gaff

 

[GROTTO]

Yep. It's why I'm avoiding these 20+ things unless it's Treloar, Neale or Gaff

Fair effort by Neale to get 19 given he had 0 at QT too last week.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Fair effort by Neale to get 19 given he had 0 at QT too last week.

Like Hawkins thou shall never talk of that lol

One leg haha

 

[The_Steadier]

And while everything else supports Steele getting to 21, the lingering doubt is strong enough for me not to put a large bet on him

Agree, i think the 20+ possie mark is a really tough one for the whole league to hit consistently this year.

The odds aren't juicy enough to justify the risk often I think- even when looking at the top disposal getters this year (that are playing this week that have played half a season or more):
1. pendles (has missed it in 21% of games)
2. Adams (missed it 27% of games)
3. Steele (missed it in 16% of games)
4. Guthrie (missed it 38% of games
5. Menegola (missed it 38% of games)
6. Dangerfield (missed it 44% of games)

The fact that the best disposal getters from the most successful teams miss it every few games on average, tells me it is a market that needs juicy odds to be worth the punt on.

Having said that- I personally don't put on small, speculative bets with a lottery ticket approach...but for those who do- you could do a lot worse than looking at my boy marshall for 20+ @ 4.50.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Don’t know why they aren’t playing full games in the finals. OK when they had to play a game every 4 days. Stupid.

 

[GROTTO]

Don’t know why they aren’t playing full games in the finals. OK when they had to play a game every 4 days. Stupid.

Next season is actually going to revert to 18 min quarters and more rounds. The days of 20min quarters appear to be over.

 

[mookieb]

Would be interested in NYRB and/or mookieb analysis of the Cats-Pies game.

In particular the formline of the two teams post R13 onwards.

Probably biased here as my lean is the Pies, but IMO the Pies have done much better over the past 6 weeks not to mention almost all those games were at the GABBA too, which also happened to coincide with returning players to their team.

Hard game to judge. Cats were excellent all season then were poor against Rich, terrible against Syd and the Port game they certainly could have won if they kicked straight so that's a question mark.

Coll's been pretty bog average all year, but they played quicker vs WC and Cox has been pretty good of late making them look far more dangerous. They finished the season 3W 3L so the only real form improvement seemed to be last week combined with a style change.

Not sure I want to make assumptions that Geel has tailed off yet and also don't want to assume Coll is back after 1 good game. I'm not touching the game - Rich -16.5 offered a far better betting option for me.

 

[burge13]

Next season is actually going to revert to 18 min quarters and more rounds. The days of 20min quarters appear to be over.

I heard short quarters more games but assumed only as a ruse to scare the players association into just agreeing to going back to normal?

 

[GROTTO]

Hard game to judge. Cats were excellent all season then were poor against Rich, terrible against Syd and the Port game they certainly could have won if they kicked straight so that's a question mark.

Coll's been pretty bog average all year, but they played quicker vs WC and Cox has been pretty good of late making them look far more dangerous. They finished the season 3W 3L so the only real form improvement seemed to be last week combined with a style change.

Not sure I want to make assumptions that Geel has tailed off yet and also don't want to assume Coll is back after 1 good game. I'm not touching the game - Rich -16.5 offered a far better betting option for me.

I was looking at only each sides previous 6 games.

Cats beat the Crows (without a win) that pushed them for 3 quarters, beat the Dogs after being down by over 5 goals at QT, smashed the Dons but was also smashed by the Tigers with 1g to HT, narrowly beat the Swans and got rolled by the Power.

Pies beat the Roos and Blues, lost to the Lions by 8pts, beat the Suns, lost to the Power by 16 and beat the Eagles in Perth. Past 6 games at GABBA have been 4W, 2L.

I think for me the travel factor is the biggest issue for the Pies. Traveling from QLD to Perth back to QLD may take its toll.