AFL 2020 - AFL Round 10

[Prochard123]

Will be skipping Macrae tonight. On Bont for goals, and looks like you guys got jinxed haha

My last few tries at goal scorers:
1. Rankine to score 2 goals (scored 1 goal 4 behinds)
2. Greene to score 2 goals (scored 0 goal 2 behinds before getting injured in 1st quarter)

 

[GROTTO]

My ‘donation’ to SB tonight
Bont 2+, U120.5, Rozee AGS 1st half $80

Kiss of Death time.

I said they wouldnt and yet they did.

I did it to Rankine(kicked 3), I did it to Tomahawk(kicked 3), I did it to the Hoff (kicked 2)


Now I will give the Kiss Of Death to The Bont.






EDIT - If he is playing injured IMO will entirely play as a forward he should score some goals tonight.

 

[NYRB]

Get the feeling that extra 24 hours and a bit time off is going to count for a bit, with the games being clustered. Port Adelaide have the best defence in the comp conceding 49.2 points per match.


Bulldogs @ $3.15 I reckon is a terrific bet in my opinion. Interesting to note even though Port Adelaide won last week, they had their lowest scoring and lowest winning quarter during the 4th. Port Adelaides intensity dropped off a bit in the last match on Thursday night against the Melbourne, not sure if it was due to tiredness or if they knew they had the game in the bag and just decided to go a bit easier. I reckon after a quarter tonight, one should get a feeling of how the intensity of both teams are.

Dogs +14.5 handicap/Under 110.5 points is paying $5.03 at Ladbrokes SGM. At the same time I could easily see this be a higher scoring game, with it being more open due to the fact that both teams will be a tad tired and with such short recovery time.

 

[Ohh Ok]

2.5u Daniel 20+ @ $1.87 (lads)
2u Byrne-Jones 15+, Boak 20+, Daniel 15+ @ $2.41 (lads)

Daniel should be an over 21.5 imo so we got a nice spot here. Players of his type have been getting some decent numbers vs Port. Ball should spend some time down there tonight which gives him opportunity.
Byrne-Jones 8/9 at this line, should find a few nice chip kicks late on if Port try to milk some time at certain points.
Boak confident his midfield time isn't effected by any of the changes. Should find plenty of it.

That's me done, no more bets for me today.

 

[NYRB]

Port Adelaide over 16.5 pts 1st qtr, Port over 16.5 pts 2nd qtr, Port over 17.5 pts 3rd qtr, Port over 17.5 pts 4th qtr @ $34.40 (boosted to $42.42)

Bulldogs over 13.5 pts 1st qtr, Bulldogs over 13.5 pts 2nd qtr, Bulldogs over 14.5 pts 3rd qtr, Bulldogs over 13.5 pts 4th qtr @ $41.40


i get a feeling with the players having a shorter break between games, the match may open up a bit more than usual. Long shot for both of those legs and I may look to hedge my bets for both if it gets to the fourth quarter and the bets are alive. An interesting note for this season , Port Adelaide's highest scoring quarter in a match, their highest scoring in the 4th quarter has only won 1 out of 9 times. Still at those odds , you simply have to take that on, than leave it.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

SGM SB

 

[tangolikelama]

Get around Boyd Woodcock for AGS @1.83

 

[andwhenitcomes]

I actually did some research on the last game.

Smith was in his 1st year, Libba came back from severe knee injury, both didn't play NEARLY as much mid as they do this year. It was also raining that day which caused a significantly larger number of contests for Macrae to score from.

To be honest, while I think Macrae's midfield time may decrease, it is still a secondary issue. I'm more concerned by their opponent (Port suffocates opposition mids), possible Houston tag (or run-with role to limit Macrae's outside accumulation) and his overall game time (averaged 90% across last 2, while % time spent in midfield may stay constant, his overall TOG has to drop to accommodate another full time midfielder).

I don't mind Macrae unders either.

Know he's gone big in his last three and he's as good an accumulator as there is, but 27.5/28.5 is a high line against a good team

 

[NYRB]

Bont AGS @2.2 2+ @7.5 3+ @34 looks good to me.

Tailed, had a nibble on the Bont for 4+ Goals as well. Bontempelli 2+ @ 8, 3+ @ 41, 4+ @ 226

Get around Boyd Woodcock for AGS @1.83

Tailed Boyd Woodcock but got odds of $2.40 on Ladbrokes

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

 

[md20]

Tonight ill have a go at

Bontempelli AGS $2.50 (Lads)

Player Goals, Rozee Vs Lloyd - Rozee $3 (Lads)

Also like the Macrae unders call.

 

[NYRB]

Bontempelli has only scored 4 goals this season.

only 1 time out of 9 he has cleared 2+ goals.

 

[freo_leo29]

Bontompelli calls are due to a suspected change in position with Dunkley back and a spot in the forward line open with Suckling and Gowers out


Libba may rest forward a bit more with Dunks back, paying $3 for a goal on SB, not brave enough to take it though

 

[NYRB]

if you looking to a same game multi next week:

Back Kennedy to score more goals than Darling for the Eagles.
Back Taberner to score more goals than Rory Lobb for the Dockers

That's the pecking order of the two for each club. Looking a bit ahead, I also fancy West Coast to do the job over Carlton next week, Freo to do the job over the Hawks as well. So backing something like Kennedy 3+ goals, Darling 2+ goals in a Same Game Multi is a good idea. Also keep in mind next week , its a day game for WCE v Carlton and a night match for Freo v Hawks. Im finding especially with Kennedy and Taberner, they are positioning themselves really well when getting into goalscoring positions.

 

[NYRB]

Conditions for tonights match between Port Adelaide and the Bulldogs:

Weather : 10 Degrees Celsius
Humidity: 80%
Dew Point : 6.71 Degrees Celsius
Wind: 13km/hour

Forecast for Adelaide: Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon then tending southerly in the late afternoon.



going to be a chilly one in Adelaide town tonight. Thats a bit of an advantage going to the right of screen (on the TV) @ Adelaide Oval with the wind, if I stand to be corrected. May be worth having a bet on the team with the wind advantage first up?

 

[NonPhixion]

Conditions for tonights match between Port Adelaide and the Bulldogs:

Weather : 10 Degrees Celsius
Humidity: 80%
Dew Point : 6.71 Degrees Celsius
Wind: 13km/hour

Forecast for Adelaide: Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon then tending southerly in the late afternoon.

View attachment 926361

going to be a chilly one in Adelaide town tonight. Thats a bit of an advantage going to the right of screen (on the TV) @ Adelaide Oval with the wind, if I stand to be corrected. May be worth having a bet on the team with the wind advantage first up?

Quality post

 

[benji21]

Get the feeling that extra 24 hours and a bit time off is going to count for a bit, with the games being clustered. Port Adelaide have the best defence in the comp conceding 49.2 points per match.


Bulldogs @ $3.15 I reckon is a terrific bet in my opinion. Interesting to note even though Port Adelaide won last week, they had their lowest scoring and lowest winning quarter during the 4th. Port Adelaides intensity dropped off a bit in the last match on Thursday night against the Melbourne, not sure if it was due to tiredness or if they knew they had the game in the bag and just decided to go a bit easier. I reckon after a quarter tonight, one should get a feeling of how the intensity of both teams are.

Dogs +14.5 handicap/Under 110.5 points is paying $5.03 at Ladbrokes SGM. At the same time I could easily see this be a higher scoring game, with it being more open due to the fact that both teams will be a tad tired and with such short recovery time.

Yep, keeping an eye on this. Last round Melb had the 4 day break and looked lethargic. There are a lot more 4 day breaks this week. Brisbane (4 days) vs Tigers (6 days). If Port look sluggish will be loading up on tigers. Adelaide also 4 day break against Melbourne 6 could get ugly.

 

[Prochard123]

I don't mind Macrae unders either.

Know he's gone big in his last three and he's as good an accumulator as there is, but 27.5/28.5 is a high line against a good team

Exactly, think out of Petracca, Viney, Oliver out of all DT/disposal lines, only Petracca cleared the 23.5 line by just (he had 24), every other combination of DT/disposal failed against Port.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

How much are you guys factoring the days break differential into your equations?

For example, with tonight's match, Port last played on Thursday, Bulldogs on Wednesday.

That's four days off for the Dogs, only three for Port.

Looking back another round, the Dogs played on Thursday whereas Port played on Saturday.

So this will be Port's second game in the nine days since their Rd 8 match (or third match in ten days).

Whereas it will be the Dogs' second game in eleven days since their Rf 8 match (or third match in twelve days).

Does the extra day's break since Rd 9, and/or two extra day's break since Rd 8, make any difference?

 

[NYRB]

the game which I have been saying earlier this weekend is the value in the kangaroos against Geelong.

yes I know the Roos were pretty bad before this weeks match. But their performance this weekend was good enough and they racked up a fairly high score and covered the line against the Crows. Geelong will have played 3 games in the space of 10 days (a physically draining game against Freo in the wet on Monday, a high intensity match against West Coast for 4 quarters from start to end, and a game against the Roos on the longest flight in the AFL from Perth to Brisbane). I'm not sure how much gas they have left in the tank? The West Coast v Geelong match was the best game of the round, but in the 2nd half Geelong didnt show the same intensity as the 1st half- I don't blame them either.

The fixtures have been horrible to Geelong, you get a stretch of: Collingwood (on neutral ground - similar to MCG), Freo (in the wet in physical conditions), West Coast (team that has one of the biggest home advantages with crowd) and Kangaroos (in Brisbane on opposite side of the country), I can see them with a 1-3 win loss coming by Wednesday night.

Perth teams use to whinge about the Brisbane trip (away match) but getting 3 days off before that game, is almost unfair.

 

[Ohh Ok]

Has anyone been in contact with bet365 in regards to their player markets?
Seems strange that they still haven’t returned

 

[ShaunWDT]

Woodcock isnt bad value AGS at 2.40, 2 goal a game small forward in the SANFL.

 

[ShaunWDT]

Bontompelli calls are due to a suspected change in position with Dunkley back and a spot in the forward line open with Suckling and Gowers out


Libba may rest forward a bit more with Dunks back, paying $3 for a goal on SB, not brave enough to take it though

Libba is a better bet than Bont, Libba was a permanent forward with their best 22 out there.

 

[Johanpetro]

Woodcock isnt bad value AGS at 2.40, 2 goal a game small forward in the SANFL.

good call. Around $1.80 elsewhere

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Conditions for tonights match between Port Adelaide and the Bulldogs:

Weather : 10 Degrees Celsius
Humidity: 80%
Dew Point : 6.71 Degrees Celsius
Wind: 13km/hour

Forecast for Adelaide: Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon then tending southerly in the late afternoon.

View attachment 926361

going to be a chilly one in Adelaide town tonight. Thats a bit of an advantage going to the right of screen (on the TV) @ Adelaide Oval with the wind, if I stand to be corrected. May be worth having a bet on the team with the wind advantage first up?

Sounds like perfect conditions for footy.