AFL 2020 - AFL Round 10

[freo_leo29]

I went to the game last week and Elliot was definitely playing midfield for most of it, Surprisingly Sidebottom was lining up forward quite a bit, maybe he is the pick

 

[NYRB]

Interesting little stat? Since 2013, when Collingwood win (involving Elliot), Elliot kicks 2+ Goals in 31 of those 54 matches in those matches won. The correlation between Elliott kicking 2+ Goals and Collingwood winning is strong.

I kind of underrate him as a footballer, didn't realise he started his career way back in 2012.

On 2020 form the price for him is poor value, on history - the price for him to kick 2+ is great value. I guess it depends on the view you take, to assess a price of $5.50 as bad or good on Elliot to kick 2+ goals.

 

[fredd]

I liked the idea of Elliot 2+ a lot too going in, but according to the stats he has been playing pretty much pure midfield for as long as is relevant, despite being named starting on the field in a forward pocket in every game.

Why is this round going to be any different Collingwood fans?

He's gone goalless in 5 of his past 6 games, and kicked a solitary goal in the other game...

If he actually played deep forward all game, he'd be a lock for 2+, but why should he be considered today?

It's guess work, odds are overs if he lines up fwd and probably unders if he plays through the middle again. Personally I'd rather have a small play at the 3+, 4+ and just accept the bet is in the bin if he keeps his current role.

At the moment Collingwood player props are a take a stab at long odds or avoid for me. Stephenson has been playing up the ground and even behind the ball at times. Last week they spent most of the last quarter with Mihocek playing full back and Moore at full forward. Elliot in the middle. Nothing worse than having your short odds bet or short odds sgm leg ruined by a random change in role.

 

[NonPhixion]

I liked the idea of Elliot 2+ a lot too going in, but according to the stats he has been playing pretty much pure midfield for as long as is relevant, despite being named starting on the field in a forward pocket in every game.

Why is this round going to be any different Collingwood fans?

He's gone goalless in 5 of his past 6 games, and kicked a solitary goal in the other game...

If he actually played deep forward all game, he'd be a lock for 2+, but why should he be considered today?

I agree he’s been playing majority mid the last few weeks, but my thinking is that with Mayne out of the team, this pushes WHE back onto a wing and then this has the chain effect of Elliott than spending more time deep forward. I also think that with the current schedule of having less time between games more players will rotate through the middle to give players a bit of a rest, we seen this with Dangerfield spending a lot of time forward, as too Sidebottom last week. This week could be Elliott’s turn to do what Sidey did last week. Also as NYRB mentioned the quality of opposition, Sydney are pretty piss poor & if collingwood can’t kick at least 10 goals tonight then they may as well quarantine the rest of the season

 

[Bucking Bronco]

I agree he’s been playing majority mid the last few weeks, but my thinking is that with Mayne out of the team, this pushes WHE back onto a wing and then this has the chain effect of Elliott than spending more time deep forward. I also think that with the current schedule of having less time between games more players will rotate through the middle to give players a bit of a rest, we seen this with Dangerfield spending a lot of time forward, as too Sidebottom last week. This week could be Elliott’s turn to do what Sidey did last week. Also as NYRB mentioned the quality of opposition, Sydney are pretty piss poor & if collingwood can’t kick at least 10 goals tonight then they may as well quarantine the rest of the season

Mmm, also with his soft tissue history you would have to think Buckley would be reticent to play him pure midfield off a 4 day break.

Okay, I'm sold enough, I'll have a little ping.

 

[squeaky1000]

SGM: Treloar, Lloyd 20+, Sidebottom Adams Crisp 15+ $1.98 lads
SGM: Pies quarter time leader, Sidebottom Adams 15+, Treloar 20+ $1.97 lads
Multi: Pies -4.5 first quarter, Saints -3.5 last quarter $3.59
Brayden Sier 15+ $1.91
Parker disposal h2h vs Maynard $1.75 bet easy

 

[burge13]

Pointsbet promos are poor this week. They usually have a couple that stand out but nothing does to me this round

 

[squeaky1000]

Two early plays for next round
Tigers -1.5 vs Port
Hawks -3.5 vs Freo
Love em both

 

[Robo87]

would you consider doing a SGM on Sidebottom and Elliot for goals? I get the feeling there will be goals in the Collingwood forward line to share tonight.

Yea.
1u Pies win, Elliot ags, Adams 15+, Maynard 15+ @3.20 sb
1u Pies win Thomas ags and Maynard 15+, Adams 15+ @3.45 lads
1u Pies win sidebottom ags and Maynard 15+, Adams 15+ @3.30 sb
0.5u pies win, sidebottom, Thomas, Elliot AG's @8.25

 

[freo_leo29]

Pointsbet promos are poor this week. They usually have a couple that stand out but nothing does to me this round

Kings are both 8/9 this year, feel like that ones a fair shout

 

[squeaky1000]

Yea.
1u Pies win, Elliot ags, Adams 15+, Maynard 15+ @3.20 sb
1u Pies win Thomas ags and Maynard 15+, Adams 15+ @3.45 lads
1u Pies win sidebottom ags and Maynard 15+, Adams 15+ @3.30 sb
0.5u pies win, sidebottom, Thomas, Elliot AG's @8.25

Hope Maynard gets 15 for you haha, I think he’s a fair chance to get the Papley job

 

[Ohh Ok]

2.5u Collingwood 1-39 @ $1.83 (365)

2.5u Jones 20+ @ $1.80 (lads)
2u Swallow u20.5 disposals @ $1.82 (SB)

Sydney 8/9 games with 1-39, pies 6/9. Sitting outside the 8 this is a MUST win game for the pies. Extra days break for Sydney so expect the game to swing their way in patches. Potential for Collingwood to take the foot off the gas late.

Good price for Jones, should be at least a 20.5, pure mid, has hit this 5/7. Is playing pure mid.

Swallow potentially going to cop some attention from Steele at points around the stoppages. Although it might not be a tight tag all night a 10% decrease sees him go from his

 

[mouncey2franklin]

I'm on WHE for goals so I hope the suggestion of him taking Mayne's role on the wing is incorrect. But it sounds reasonable

Surely one of Reid / WHE / Mihocek kicks a few goals today.

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Beteasy question- I have an uncredited bonus bet from same game multi 3 legs / 1 fail from Dees game. Normally they are credited faster than this right? Tgey told me wait 24 hours but is anyone else sitting on this from the same game?

My Geelong one was credited within the hour.

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[mookieb]

0.75u Coll -4.5 1st 0.5u Coll 13+ 1st

Coll are very fast starters vs Syd who are very slow out of the blocks.

StK -3.5 4th 13+ 4th + nibble on 33+

StK are very fast finished (ranked 6th) and the opposite for GC (ranked 16th) + 4 day break.

1u Coll 1-39.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Keeping it simple on 365
Paps and Sexton goal 2.05

 

[NYRB]

Sydney 8/9 games with 1-39, pies 6/9. Sitting outside the 8 this is a MUST win game for the pies. Extra days break for Sydney so expect the game to swing their way in patches. Potential for Collingwood to take the foot off the gas late.

There is a chance this could happen. Think its difficult to put in all around 4 quarter performance this season. (for any team this year) Winning by a big margin for Collingwood, doesn't improve their situation on the ladder that much- so if Colllingwood are leading by a fair margin they may want to play safe with injuries and recovery (they picked up a draw earlier in the season).

 

[benji21]

0.75u Coll -4.5 1st 0.5u Coll 13+ 1st

Coll are very fast starters vs Syd who are very slow out of the blocks.

StK -3.5 4th 13+ 4th + nibble on 33+

StK are very fast finished (ranked 6th) and the opposite for GC (ranked 16th) + 4 day break.

1u Coll 1-39.

Yep agree with the 1st quarter although i think freo have shown a good tactic to beat the pies by restricting the 1st qtr i still think they will win by a goal in teh 1st.

Also on swans the plus as a bit of cover.

Due to how pies play 1 of those should win, but there's a good chance both can.

 

[NYRB]

The Ladbrokes Special:

Stephenson to kick a goal for Collingwood in the 1st half. That's paying $2.00 Max Stake: $50

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

The Ladbrokes Special:

Stephenson to kick a goal for Collingwood in the 1st half. That's paying $2.00 Max Stake: $50

Just a warning, he’s been playing much higher up the ground than usual

 

[NYRB]

Just a warning, he’s been playing much higher up the ground than usual

Fair point. At $2 that doesn't appeal to me either.

 

[NonPhixion]

Collingwood line-up is a bit sus I’ll admit, but I’m confident Ruscoe will play as a 3rd tall fwd tonight. AGS $3 on 365

 

[Johanpetro]

The Ladbrokes Special:

Stephenson to kick a goal for Collingwood in the 1st half. That's paying $2.00 Max Stake: $50

lol it’s $2.10 on SportsBet anyway

 

[NYRB]

Collingwood line-up is a bit sus I’ll admit, but I’m confident Ruscoe will play as a 3rd tall fwd tonight. AGS $3 on 365

wow much better odds than Sportsbet's $2.00 AGS market

 

[NonPhixion]

wow much better odds than Sportsbet's $2.00 AGS market

SportsBet have tightened the screws. They had to do some work but there’s hardly any value anymore