AFL 2020 - AFL Round 15 (no aftertiming allowed)

[GROTTO]

Fun Facts with Grotto.

If I am not mistaken there is just 38 games left in Season 2020* to bet on. (+ Brownlow)

 

[Bazza97]

Brayshaw 15+ disp, Langdon 15+ disp & Florent 15+ disp $2.32 NEDS
Been a while, but I've finally got back on a disposal only SGM.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Fun Facts with Grotto.

If I am not mistaken there is just 38 games left in Season 2020* to bet on. (+ Brownlow)

Enough time for me to lose another 76 units.

 

[5 Bucks]

Mills out

 

[mookieb]

There is no empirical evidence to suggest that days break matters

As a start you should tally up 4th qtr margin differential of teams coming off 4 day breaks. Obviously sample size is small but the results are overwhelming.

Historically stats say that breaks do matter ie teams with 2 additional days rest and consecutive 6 day breaks being detrimental.

 

[GROTTO]

Enough time for me to lose another 76 units.

Sometimes not betting is the right decision if you dont see odds in your favour.

 

[GROTTO]

Typically a 4 day break is a killer. 5 days break don't seem to be anywhere near as detrimental.

Geel smashed Port off a 4 day break has been the exception to the rule.

There is no empirical evidence to suggest that days break matters

As a start you should tally up 4th qtr margin differential of teams coming off 4 day breaks. Obviously sample size is small but the results are overwhelming.

Historically stats say that breaks do matter ie teams with 2 additional days rest and consecutive 6 day breaks being detrimental.

Youre both right and wrong.

iluvparis is right, historically there is little evidence, supported by larger sample size.

mookieb is right, as this year there has been, but smaller sample size.

 

[mookieb]

1u Melb 4th qtr -4.5 and 0.5u Melb -12.5 4th qtr $3.25. Melb very fit and good finishers vs a poor last qtr team.

1u Coll +13.5. Think Cox and Thomas have found a bit of form and made a difference. Team looked very good vs Carl.

3u WB +9.5 vs WC (next round). Think WC midfield lacks grunt without Shuey and Yeo. Been average away from home. 5 day break vs WB with the week off. I think WB's get the win here.

 

[Bazza97]

Getting on Lewis Taylor AGS $2.85 BE & 2+ $13 BE.

 

[Islanda22]

Melbourne/GWS double $1.91 TAB

 

[iluvparis]

As a start you should tally up 4th qtr margin differential of teams coming off 4 day breaks. Obviously sample size is small but the results are overwhelming.

Historically stats say that breaks do matter ie teams with 2 additional days rest and consecutive 6 day breaks being detrimental.

The stats DON'T say that - as I said there is no empirical data to support your claims - go and read the squiggle thread and brush up.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Melbourne/GWS double $1.91 TAB

For a Little more value GWS 1-39. They rarely win by much this season

 

[iluvparis]

Youre both right and wrong.

iluvparis is right, historically there is little evidence, supported by larger sample size.

mookieb is right, as this year there has been, but smaller sample size.

Geez - so I wonder which one we are going to believe - actually I know - in the modern world it is definitely the latter.

 

[Sketi]

Shamelessly cherry picked the last couple of pages of this thread for this lol

 

[NonPhixion]

Tom Mcartin is $2.05 ags on 365. Seems a bit silly to me

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Tom Mcartin is $2.05 ags on 365. Seems a bit silly to me

Depends where he plays

Probably plus in defence with Mills out mate

 

[NonPhixion]

Dawson is not warming up with the forwards. I’ve cashed out and basically free rolled Hayward 2+ $10 & 3+ $51

 

[BloodRet]

Adding AGS

Taylor
Hayward
Dawson
Reid
@22.5

Fritsch 3
Reid 3
@72

Reid 4+ @46

Reid more goals than Melksham @3.75 lads

Sinclair 2+ @17 (Mclean into the side for Mills. Will give Sinclair some rests forward.

 

[benji21]

The stats DON'T say that - as I said there is no empirical data to support your claims - go and read the squiggle thread and brush up.

Jacob Wilson did come out and say CD had stats pointing to 4 days breaks hurt especially against 6 day breaks

 

[Prochard123]

Dawson is not warming up with the forwards. I’ve cashed out and basically free rolled Hayward 2+ $10 & 3+ $51

He usually has a HF/HB split, wouldn't read TOO much into this

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

$200 Taranto 30+ at $11

No Josh Kelly and Greene up forward means less time up forward, hopefuly. Had 38 v Carlton last year.

$6.50 at sportsbet

 

[BloodRet]

Rowbottom was $4 ags knew I should've got on ffs

 

[GROTTO]

Rowbottom was $4 ags knew I should've got on ffs

Where was he listed to play in the lineup? Up forward?

 

[NYRB]

Where was he listed to play in the lineup? Up forward?

Centre line

 

[BloodRet]

Where was he listed to play in the lineup? Up forward?

Nah in the mids I think but he is good around the goal