AFL 2020 - AFL Round 15 (no aftertiming allowed)

[Drapatch]

Mitchell over 27.5
Crouch over 26.5
McGrath over 22.5
Gaff over 25.5
Merrett over 26.5
@ 28.69 SB

Mitchell 30+
Laird 20+
Crouch 25+
Worpel 25+
@ 12 BE

 

[mcfly7]

Lewis Jetta ATG @ 3.6 (bet365) Simpson mentioned him playing a forward role, looking at their lineup they don't have any other small forwards other than Ryan/Ah Chee

 

[mookieb]

Looks like a bumper round.

1.5u Hawks* -15.5. Since the restart Ade have lost every game by 20+ with the exception of Ade. B. Crouch is back and still no JOM hurts but this is an important game for the Hawks since they might not have another win for the season (StK, WB and GC). They've shown good signs of late (at times) with some of their younger players being better and flashes from the older players.

1.5u Ess +22.5 - loved the Joe Daniher return. Their midfielders are playing well and with Yeo, Cripps and Kennedy out I fancy them to be competitive.

2.5u GWS -8.5 / 1u GWS 2nd half line / 1u GWS 4th qtr line / 0.5u GWS 40+ - think the 4 day break will hit hard for Carl. Tough to travel after copping a smashing vs a team full of talent who are likely to have found form.

Looking at Rich 2nd half and 4th qtr lines.

* I have a terrible record betting on Hawks but can't ignore the numbers.

I'm extracting myself from the Hawks bet. JOM and Smith didn't return and this is compunded by Shiels missing. Plus Ade at home and with a far longer rest than Hawks. Think the Hawks win at a skinnier margin than the line I posted.

 

[NYRB]

Nibble on 4 players for 25+ @ $17. Get a weird feeling that it will be a high disposal game. The one I'm worried about is Worpel but at $17 its too good to pass up.

 

[FadingTheFave]

1u - SGM: Adelaide H2H, Sloane 20+, McAdam ATG @16.00 (BetEasy)
2u - Sloane Gr2 dispoals @5.00 (SB)
0.5u - Sloane 30+ @101 (BetEasy)

Think it's the last opportunity for the Crows to get a win this season. They were in it until final quarter against Geelong and are at home again against the Hawks off a 4 day break. Have a feeling Sloane might have a big one and as others have stated Hawks leak lots of disposals.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

2u - Minchington ATG @ 3.00 (Lads) Good value for anyone who plays as a forward IMO and has hit the scoreboard in all 3 games. I think he will get more opportunity as a forward target with Breust/Wingard getting more midfield time without Shiels while Impey will replace Day at HB.

Love this bet.

He is $9 for 2+ at Beteasy, got a unit on that one.

Plus a few small multis e.g. Mitchington 2+ into Murphy 2+ @ 61.

 

[NYRB]

Disposal Counts Record for 2020 (since the restart after Covid19):

Hawthorn Won 2, Lost 10
Adelaide Won 3, Lost 9


It indicates to me that both teams concede possessions a fair bit to the opposition. Not sure how that plays out in a game such as this, possibly more turnovers?

 

[4THAWN]

I think there is potentially value on Wingard 20+, and definitely think Cousins 20+ is more likely than Scrimshaw 20+.

Wingard 15+ @1.97 on BE, Wingard 20+ @ 4 on SB, James Cousins 15+ @ 1.40 and 20+ @ 2.75 on TAB is what I like from a Hawthorn disposals perspective.

jeez, those prices didn't last long.

 

[NonPhixion]

I think Michington might play HB & Impey will stay forward. Will be interesting to see how this plays out because I swear Michington spent time both forward & back last week.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Disposal Counts Record for 2020 (since the restart after Covid19):

Hawthorn Won 2, Lost 10
Adelaide Won 3, Lost 9

It indicates to me that both teams concede possessions a fair bit to the opposition. Not sure how that plays out in a game such as this, possibly more turnovers?

Fascinating observation.

I've crunched the numbers, run the models thousands of times over, factoring in all known variables.

The final conclusion from this statistical analysis is surprisingly obvious:

 

[NYRB]

Adelaide Oval is a high disposal ground.

13 matches there in 2020:

Average shots on goal 34.31 per match
Average Possessions per match: 600.01 per match

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

SGM

Scully 20+
Howe 20+
Worpel 20+

$19.50 SB

Howe 20+ and 25+ too $4.33 and $14 SB

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Kick it between the 2 big sticks Stengle FFS

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Stengle is breaking my heart here.

 

[anabac]

North for example, clearly don't want to win as a club hence dropping Polec

This is being VERY generous to Polec

 

[Bazza97]

Stengle AGS, Murphy AGS & Fogarty AGS $5.25 BE

Now if Stengle had converted just one of those two opportunities, I would only need Murphy to get a goal.

 

[ash_1050]

Splashed some cash on the Crows +10.5 line at $1.90.

 

[Prochard123]

Mitchell 4 touches 16 DT in 30 seconds lol...

Looked over if Mitchell went into quarter time with 6 DT and 1 touch for those who have gone overs for titch.

 

[Simpleskills]

On Adelaide for first half behinds.. Those last two OOB would have been handy.

 

[GROTTO]

Fun Facts with Grotto.

Crows have only lost 2 games when leading at QT in 2020.

 

[md20]

Mitch Lewis looks like he has never stepped foot on a football field before. Lost and completely lacking confidence

On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Bazza97]

Lovely, at least one more goal please Lewis

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Stengle.......

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Stengle!

 

[benji21]

Fun Facts with Grotto.

Crows have only lost 2 games when leading at QT in 2020.

Only lost 1 when leading at the half