GROTTO
TheBrownDog
- Jul 5, 2013
- 68,034
- 93,181
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
All aboard the De Goey train lads
Let’s ride this home.
Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
LIVE: Sydney v Port Adelaide - 7:40 / 7:10 Fri
Squiggle tips Swans at 57% chance -- What's your tip? -- Teams on Thurs »
LIVE: Geelong v Brisbane Lions - 7:30PM Sat
Squiggle tips Cats at 54% chance -- What's your tip? -- Teams on Thurs »
Weekly Prize - Join Any Time - Tip Prelim Finals
The Golden Ticket - MCG and Marvel Medallion Club tickets and Corporate Box tickets at the Gabba, MCG and Marvel.
AFLW 2024 - Round 4 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
All aboard the De Goey train lads
Let’s ride this home.
Sportsbet won't ban you for taking the AGS 2+ 3+ in a multi, they will just restrict your account from placing those types of bets, I can no longer get a multi through like that.
You should take the Pies to win SU with Pies at the +line in a same game multi and power that up. Offers better odds.Thanks I presumed that would be the case.
It would be an open and shut case to win in the small claims tribunal if they were to cancel other bets etc because you simply used their service in a way they ought reasonably have been aware that it could be, (and is) used.
Given the level of monitoring and analytics they use on their customers, they wouldn't have a leg to stand on playing the poor defenceless- 'we didn't know we were being exploited via unfair use' angle.
It would take them 2 seconds to code their website to not allow such bets- and they do it all the time, barring certain markets/bets to not be able to be combined.
You should take the Pies to win SU with Pies at the +line in a same game multi and power that up. Offers better odds.
A good suggestion
Collingwood scoring in 2020:
View attachment 966925
Collingwood correlation coefficient is -0.2845. Which supports the general view that they start games well and then for some reason slow down in scoring throughout a match. There is a general negative relationship. Ports' defence is one of the strongest in the comp , and I can see Port strangling them as the game goes on.
View attachment 966922
Port Adelaide are a different beast. Whilst they don't get off the blocks as much as Collingwood, there is a trend to them, in that they pace themselves during a game and if they score around 3+ goals or more in the 1st quarter, generally they will score around that mark for the remaining quarters. Port Adelaide have a positive linear relationship, if they start games well and score well, they maintain that consistency throughout the match. As indicative of the correlation coefficient value of +0.4274. I will make a prediction, if Port kick 3 goals in the first quarter, they will score at least 72+ points in the match. As I speak, Port Adelaide to score 76-90 pts at Sportsbet is paying $6.00 which seems a bit tasty to me.
Ive taken a bit of a nibble at odds of $16.25
for Collingwood to win 1st Qtr
Port -1.5 line 2nd Qtr
Port -1.5 line 3rd Qtr
Port -1.5 line 4th Qtr
I mean if a player is a "sure thing" to kick 3 goals, you can add some legs (it doesnt matter if they are completely related) and get that bonus bet via the promos if one fails.
You get better odds too.
Keep doing it, that will teach them.
What if a player is shoe in for 2+?Unless plugger and dunstall come out of retirement and footy goes in a timemachine i can't see many situations where I think someone is a shoe in to kick 3.
Fwiw, before the 3 I've put on tonight's game ive, placed 5 multis this round using this method for:
3 outright wins
2 losses, 1 got a bonus bet back.
All 3 wins were paying ~$2, the bonus bet back was @ 3.12 and the loss at 2.90
Confident on adding another 2 outright wins (and 1 loss, hopefully with a bonus bet back) to that collection tonight
No ******* around tonight. Also taken a swipe at the SB special 4 or less goals in each qr @6 in case my ags bets cave. I like the look of Rozee ags 2.70 lads just quietly.
What if a player is shoe in for 2+?
Using your logic, you get a free hit for 3+, by backing AGS and 2+ when the promos are available.
Keep doing it.
Yeah that's really good value on Rozee for a goal. I think I got on him for AGS $2.15 on TAB last night before NEDS/Lads had released their goal scorer markets. I've just put money on Rozee AGS again this time on NEDS at $2.65, that's just too good to ignore.De goey 2
Dixon 2
Cox
Gray
@12.25
Cox 2
De goey
Stephenson
WHE
Gray
@23.75
Gray 2
Cox
Pendles 15
Elliot 15
SPP 15
Grundy 15
Noble 15
@65
Cox 2
Thomas
Woodcock
Marshall
Pendles 20
Elliot 15
SPP 15
@75 sb
No ******* around tonight. Also taken a swipe at the SB special 4 or less goals in each qr @6 in case my ags bets cave. I like the look of Rozee ags 2.70 lads just quietly.
Already into $4 for 2, $13 for 3, $51 for 4.What's the deal with SB offering such juicy odds on Cox for 2/3/4 goals?
$5 for 2 seems like way overs, $18 for 3 and $81 for 4 also worth a nibble imo.