AFL 2020 - AFL Round 7

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reckon dave swallow most touches gr 2 @ 5 sb is a decent shout. only other player in that group who who might challenge is weller. 20 cbas last week and is spending alot more time in the middle with rowell out. was a tough matchup in the middle last week and witts got dominated by gawn. will be a better matchup for witts v sinclar, and sydneys midfield is shot aswell due to injury.

ill back him in for 20+ @ 2.40 also
 

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reckon dave swallow most touches gr 2 @ 5 sb is a decent shout. only other player in that group who who might challenge is weller. 20 cbas last week and is spending alot more time in the middle with rowell out. was a tough matchup in the middle last week and witts got dominated by gawn. will be a better matchup for witts v sinclar, and sydneys midfield is shot aswell due to injury.

ill back him in for 20+ @ 2.40 also
Where do you get your CBA intel?
 
reckon dave swallow most touches gr 2 @ 5 sb is a decent shout. only other player in that group who who might challenge is weller. 20 cbas last week and is spending alot more time in the middle with rowell out. was a tough matchup in the middle last week and witts got dominated by gawn. will be a better matchup for witts v sinclar, and sydneys midfield is shot aswell due to injury.

ill back him in for 20+ @ 2.40 also
20+ $2.75 BE (super boost section)
 
Good start to the round 4-3 for +6.71 units. Haven’t really had too much of a chance to bet on a Saturday due to commitments. Have had a bit of a time tonight to take a bit of a dive.

Most these bets leaving on role change/ presented opportunities

1.5u Langdon AGS @ $2.60 (lads)

3u Miller 15+, Swallow 15+, Florent 15+ @ $1.95 (SB)
1u Stephens 15+ @ $3.60 (SB)

3u Higgins over 20.5 @ $1.82 (lads)
2.5u Lambert over 19.5 @ $1.85 (lads)

Langdon will play a forward role, have to take this price, next best $1.91.

Miller no need to tag, thriving being able to hunt the ball, increased opportunity with Rowell out. Likewise for Swallow, increased op. Florent has been given an increase in responsibility this season and will be asked to step it up a notch with JPK missing. Like Stephens for similar reasons to others previously posted.

Higging for 25 disposals in normal time? Love it. Add in the state of Richmond’s midfield? Lock it in. On the other hand Lambert has thrived on the increased in opportunity.
 
Dylan Stephens 15+
David Swallow 15+
Hugh Greenwood 15+
$6.75
 

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Mcstay All-day 1.97
Josh Kelly or as he likes to be called the Jackal 3.75
Zac Long Dong 2.65
Cameron Rainman 2 bucks
Does Neale take Deboer fwd? 1.92
Tom McCartonofbeers 1.77
Cantstandya 1.65
Daniel Ravioli 2.25
Jamie Crapps 1.72

Multi
Rayner crapps Lonie 5.50 sbet
 
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Nathan Brown the Sportsbet ambassador reckons for Richmond v Kangaroos

SGM
Under 120.5 pts
Simpkin 20+ possessions (Kangaroos)
Higgins 20+ possessions (Richmond)

Thats paying @ $7


ive decided to take Nathan Brown's suggestion on. Sportsbet are offering around $7, going to go with Lads with the Boost at $8.24. I know some of you guys think Sportsbet are using him as a way to trap punters into betting into their markets, but the more I look at that bet, the more I like it.
 
I think what is happening here is that it is a causal effect taking place here.

An astute bet is posted, books are hit, odds are smashed in. I can see how some may think the books are reading this forum, tbh we dont know definitively, there might very well be someone in the background in a team of statisticians that is following this or other forums. I mean there has to be someone, following what is going on in the world of the AFL, because the books are always quick to react to the latest news.

Generally though what is happening IMO is that the odds are not smashed in because the bet is good, but because the weight of the money coming in. There probably is a lot of punters that dont post on here that read this forum, see the bet and then hit it.
I got an email from a rep from Beteasy within a week from giving my email to this website. So one of the moderators here has ties with the betting companies
 
I know Rankine had a good week last week and I missed the person who said he would get 2+ and 3+ goals.

But at $3.10 to get 2+, and $9 to get 3+ for this week, I reckon there is no value there.

$1.40 for AGS is a joke.

He will end up IMO in Cameron territory sooner rather than later for goal scoring

$1.80 for 2+ and $3.70 for 3+ his AGS is $1.14 :drunk:
 

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AFL 2020 - AFL Round 7

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