AFL 2020 - AFL Round 9

[Distinctive_]

Value bet
Rowan Marshall AGS $3 - Pointsbet

Had 2 last week. $1.57 at SB

 

[AP3XS]

Saints v Sydney

SGM: 1u @ $3.07 (Lads)
- Saints Win
- Josh Battle AGS

SGM: 1u @ $2.05 (SB - 1 leg fail get bonus bet)
- Saints Win
- Dan Butler AGS
- Max King AGS

I think the Saints win this comfortable and Lads have Josh Battle @ $2.15 while SB have him @ $1.57 and BetEasy $1.44.

 

[NYRB]

Value bet
Rowan Marshall AGS $3 - Pointsbet

Had 2 last week. $1.57 at SB

Tailed you there. He has scored a goal in 4 of 7 matches since the covid break.

 

[NYRB]

I fancy Walker to get more than 12 points tomorrow, Adelaide to score more than 8 goals, and Adelaide to win tomorrow .

walker has been playing much better since that week off he had, booting 13 points and 20 points in his last fortnight.

 

[NYRB]

SGM:

Adelaide to win
Adelaide Over 8.5 Goals
Tex Walker 2+ Goals

Paying $4.90 with the Boost at Lads


Not sold that this game can cover the total line of 119.5 points even if its a day game at Metricon. Adelaide could win this by kicking 9 or 10 goals. I think it will be a bit of a transformation for the Roos without Ben Brown in the forward line and losin a player like Polec (who has been playing not so good anyway).

 

[Geeves Train]

Tailed this. Awfully unlucky. Dubious arm chop 20m out directly in front in the 4th.

Haha yeh I was holding my breath when he went forward. Gleeson cleaned him up like 20m out in front and I was waiting for the whistle but it was probably 50/50, Lions got a lot of frees that had less in them. Then 2min later he took a mark 50m out and gave off, I think he was still cooked from getting cleaned up. Successful operation but unfortunately the patient died!!

 

[rwandandream]

I fancy Walker to get more than 12 points tomorrow, Adelaide to score more than 8 goals, and Adelaide to win tomorrow .

walker has been playing much better since that week off he had, booting 13 points and 20 points in his last fortnight.

I like your angle here. I think PB are generally way off with some of their stat multis. I think Jy Simpkin will fly over 50.

 

[NYRB]

I like your angle here. I think PB are generally way off with some of their stat multis. I think Jy Simpkin will fly over 50.

im pretty confident if Adelaide win, one of/or both of 1) Walker Goals and/or 2) Adelaide goals will come through as well.

Doing a bit of research in 2019, when Adelaide win, Tex Walker averages 16.84 points per game in Adelaide's win from 2017-2019. ( a sample of 33 wins in those 3 years)

 

[rwandandream]

Josh Battle Team FGS @ 26.00 (TAB)
Josh Battle FGS Place @ 13.00 (TAB)

 

[ShaunWDT]

Is there any argument for an outsider to win in the remaining games this round? They all seem terrible matchups.

Syd - chance of a letdown spot + fielding an atrocious team due to injuries vs a Saints team on fire.

Geel - good in the wet, but a hard slog on 5 days turnaround with plenty of injury concerns vs a WC team on fire.

Ess - injury decimated and just barely getting over the weaker team vs a Bris team on fire.

Freo - injury decimated + a poor team to begin with vs Coll on the rebound

Ade - been close a couple of times but without the composure to finish games. Importantly now missing Sloane and Crouch making their midfield as weak as their forward line vs NM who were good last week and got some key players back with a run under their belt.

GC - have been plucky but lost narrowly to a below strength WB so should struggle against a near full strength GWS.

The first five game look like moral, with GWS being a bit flaky the concern.

Hawks went out to +12.5 but have dropped 4 spuds and brought in 2 guns and 2 experienced players. Easily the best chance of an upset although Carl in far superior form.

Anything i'm missing? Might throw some H2H bets in. Better than bank interest.

West Coast should win but feel like they are short, not sure a no McGovern or Redden WC are a $1.30 better side than Geelong.

 

[Geeves Train]

Josh Battle Team FGS @ 26.00 (TAB)
Josh Battle FGS Place @ 13.00 (TAB)

Great find, straight swap for Kent? Should be half this price both markets!!

 

[BloodRet]

Stengle ags
Himmelberg ags
Larkey ags
Daw ags
5.70

Reid 3+ 9.50

 

[Robo87]

In the named crows team, the woeful leading gs' for them so far are-
1st. walker 10g in 7 games
2nd. murphy 5g in 8 games
3rd. Lynch 4g in 6 games

So if crows do get a win, i think it would mean lynch and walker probably have to kick 1 goal each minimum, but murphy has the value not walker, so adding:
1u lynch ags @1.72 sb
0.5u lynch 2g+ @5 sb
1u murphy ags @1.80 sb
0.5u murphy 2g+ @5 sb
0.5u sgm -lynch & L murphy ags @3.50 sb
1u sgm -Crows 1-39, lynch & L murphy ags @8 sb boosted sgm promo
...& an alternative option incase North are too good-
1.5u sgm - larky ags, scott ags, zurhaar ags, anderson15+ @3.95 lads sgm promo (Anderson15+ 7/8games)

roughie again:
0.5u seed ags @3.25 be
0.25u seed 2g+ @19 be
0.5u b.smith ags @ 2.50 be (he's on ball)
0.25u b.smith 2g+ @ 13 be

 

[NYRB]

why people bet on Crows to win by 1-39 pts, over match odds on Adelaide , at relatively similar odds, will leave me forever dumbfounded.

Akin to buying a 2 Litre coke for $3, whilst you could get a 2.5 L bottle of coke for $3.10. You could get more value for your buck, for more quantity.

And before you ask, i have lost in matches in the past by playin margin markets, when I thought, an underdog had no chance of winning by a big margin but they did. (Made sure never make that mistake again). Don't mind if you put it in a multi but who bets on margins in a multi anyway? I know Hawthorn for instance only won by 31 points yesterday for instance, but it could have easily been 40+. They were the clear underdog yesterday but if you played them for margins between 1-39, you would have a bit of a nervy final quarter yesterday.

Surely you 1-39 backers, would have some insurance on the 40+ just in case it goes balls up?

 

[JacksonNMFC]

SGM
SAINTS Win
Papley 2+ Goals
Butler AGS
King AGS
Billings 15+
Steele 20+
$6.80 Sportsbet Boosted

 

[JuniorWatch]

Value bet
Rowan Marshall AGS $3 - Pointsbet

Had 2 last week. $1.57 at SB

Where are you seeing this?
Been $1.80 all week on the AGS page.

J. Battle AGS $2.15 Lads
J. Battle FGS $41 TAB (seems to have gone up in price)
Membrey 2+ $2.40 PB

 

[Sausage Legs]

I like your angle here. I think PB are generally way off with some of their stat multis. I think Jy Simpkin will fly over 50.

The problem is if he doesn't kick a goal ur up for 50x ur small stake. He's goaled 3/8 games this year and with just the one. Won't have a better chance than v crows tho.
Sometimes I find ur just better off putting on whatever you are willing to lose and put it on him for anytime goal scorer at 3.50.

 

[BuddysBuddy23]

Thoughts on Keays today. Will he do a tagging role on Higgins/Simpkin or run free like last week? Collected 21 disposals last week and averaging 14 for the year. Keen to back Keays,Hall,Anderson for 15+ @ $2.16 with Lads promo

 

[squeaky1000]

SGM Crouch 20+, Anderson Laird Smith and Keays 15+ $2.25
L Murphy ags $1.95 bet365

 

[burge13]

Value bet
Rowan Marshall AGS $3 - Pointsbet

Had 2 last week. $1.57 at SB

Good find with RM. Into 1.80 now

 

[Notorious_29]

Steele to Parker?

Under 22.5 @ 1.92

 

[Distinctive_]

Where are you seeing this?
Been $1.80 all week on the AGS page.

J. Battle AGS $2.15 Lads
J. Battle FGS $41 TAB (seems to have gone up in price)
Membrey 2+ $2.40 PB

Checked odds late last night. Odds jumped back to $1.80 not long after I posted

 

[NonPhixion]

Lynch AGS, Murphy AGS, Zurhaar 2+ $8.20 - SB

 

[tangolikelama]

Walker out

 

[Johanpetro]

Josh Battle Team FGS @ 26.00 (TAB)
Josh Battle FGS Place @ 13.00 (TAB)

Into $7 and $5.50 respectively. He’s also $17 FGS now from $41. Cheers and fingers crossed