AFL 2021 AFL Round 14

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Kelly sheep dogging every contest like an absolute gutless pissant

Seriously fu** off to North where u belong

2 touches since Half time for a campaigner on the ball is pathetic
Too be fair, did you catch a look at the size of the ball that came up around his ankle that was the result of rolling it in the first? Looks debilitating, but he played on!
 

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Jake Stringer 15+ @ $2.40 lads. Bombers midfield looks thin with no McGrath so thinking Jake will go back to attending more CB's like he was before he got injured. It's not like they're crying out for him up forward with Wright, Perkins, Jones and Hooker all providing targets.
 
5u - McKenzie 15+, Amon 20+, Wines 25+ disposals - $2.50

2.5u - Miller over 29.5 disposals - $1.87 - 365
Miller has been massive this year covering this in 7/11 games an 2/3 at Metricon. His aerobic capacity makes him extremely hard to shut down and the amount of ground he covers has been blowing me away. Super line.

1.5u - Neale over 27.5 disposals - $1.80 - TopSport
Should be fit and firing now. Ready to see the champ work this one back up into the 30s over the coming weeks.

2u - Greene 2+ goals - $1.67 - SB
1.5u - Greene 3+ goals - $3.10 - SB
1u - Greene 4+ goals - $6.50 - SB
0.5u - Greene 5+ goals - $15 - SB
Have had a fair bit of success backing the smalls against Carlton this year. Greene is in my opinion the best and most dangerous of any small in the comp. Has had a massive 50 scoring shots this year which equates to 5 a game! Is a bloke that never gives up and is the man that gets his team going. Expecting big things today.

Great day
 
Greater Western Sydney v Carlton Stats Multiplier from PointsBet (Goals x Kicks x Handballs):

IN 2021:OCCURRENCESOCCURRENCESOCCURRENCESSEASON AVERAGE MULTIPLIER
JOSH KELLYUNDER 166
4​
166-194
3​
OVER 194
5​
209.17​
TOBY GREENEUNDER 151
6​
151-177OVER 177
4​
137.40​
JACOB HOPPERUNDER 101
6​
101-119OVER 119
6​
101.08​
TIM TARANTOUNDER 64
8​
64-76OVER 76
4​
55.08​
HARRISON HIMMELBERGUNDER 42
6​
42-50
1​
OVER 50
5​
47.33​
LACHIE WHITFIELDUNDER 38
5​
38-46OVER 46
1​
34.67​
PATRICK CRIPPSUNDER 98
8​
98-116
1​
OVER 116
3​
117.25​
SAM WALSHUNDER 83
7​
83-97OVER 97
5​
96.92​
JACK MARTINUNDER 51
2​
51-61
1​
OVER 61
20.00​
ED CURNOWUNDER 50
8​
50-60OVER 60
4​
56.00​
EDDIE BETTSUNDER 42
7​
42-53OVER 53
3​
45.00​
HARRY MCKAYUNDER 42
7​
42-50
1​
OVER 50
4​
72.75​




My picks for the Spreads using $1 stakes:

UNDER 166 Josh Kelly
UNDER 151 Toby Greene
NO PLAY Hopper
OVER 76 Taranto
OVER 50 Himmelberg
NO PLAY Whitfield
UNDER 98 Cripps
OVER 97 Walsh
NO PLAY Martin
OVER 60 Curnow
NO PLAY Betts
NO PLAY Harry McKay

Results from last nights match:

UNDER 166 Josh Kelly = +$16 WIN
UNDER 151 Toby Greene = -$105 LOSS
NO PLAY Hopper
OVER 76 Taranto= -$76 LOSS
OVER 50 Himmelberg = +$72 PROFIT
NO PLAY Whitfield
UNDER 98 Cripps = +$98 PROFIT
OVER 97 Walsh= -$97 LOSS
NO PLAY Martin
OVER 60 Curnow= -$60 LOSS
NO PLAY Betts
NO PLAY Harry McKay

Net Result= -$55 LOSS

Record in 2021: 4 Wins & 8 Losses
 

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Hawthorn v Essendon PointsBet Stat Multiplier:

IN 2021OCCURRENCESOCCURRENCESOCCURRENCESSEASON AVERAGE MULTIPLIER
LUKE BREUSTUNDER 86
9​
86-100OVER 100
3​
68.92​
TOM MITCHELLUNDER 83
10​
83-97OVER 97
2​
52.00​
CHAD WINGARDUNDER 97
6​
97-113
1​
OVER 113
2​
63.44​
DYLAN MOOREUNDER 67
7​
67-79OVER 79
5​
82.67​
LIAM SHIELSUNDER 44
8​
44-52OVER 52
3​
30.63​
DARCY PARISHUNDER 97
9​
97-113OVER 113
3​
120.75​
ANTHONY MCDONALD-TIPUNGWUTIUNDER 68
7​
68-80OVER 80
5​
68.00​
ZACH MERRETTUNDER 56
11​
56-66OVER 66
1​
19.50​
DEVON SMITHUNDER 55
6​
55-65
1​
OVER 65
2​
40.56​
JAKE STRINGERUNDER 67
5​
67-79OVER 79
3​
64.75​


Will post up the bets about an hour before game time.
 
Not sure who is kicking goals for Hawthorn looking at that forward line

Anyway

Think Jai Newcombe’s odds aren’t too bad, had a shot last week and has kicked goals for Box Hill

$2.63 for 1
$13.50 boosted for 2 SB

SGM
Newcombe
Ham x 2
Koschitzke x 2
@ 33.50 boosted SB
 
3u - Ridley 20+ disposals - $1.72 - SB
Has cleared 7/10 this season, an elite user of the ball and not afraid to get it into his hands. Takes some kick outs. Line blown out a bit due to going under last two games.

3u - Heppell over 23.5 disposals - $1.85 - TopSport
6/10 on this. Soft match up today, should see plenty of the ball.

2u - Langford 25+ disposals - $2.20 - 365
Has moved into the midfield in recent weeks. CBAs and disposal counts have both risen.

2.5u - O’Meara over 25.5 disposals - $1.87 - Ladbrokes
Picks up some of the slack left behind with Worpel out. Has cleared 6/9 this year.

1.5u - Wingard 20+ disposals - $1.91 - SB
6/9. Mid/wing role improves with Worpel out.

5u - Hind 20+, Mitchell, Parish 25+ disposals - $1.95 - TAB

1.5u - Phillips 15+ disposals, Breust, McDonald 2+ goals - $3.30 - SB
Phillips 11/12, under being against Melbourne which is a tough match up. Bruest 8/12, their main goal threat, 1.2 on the earlier in the year. McDonald-Tippa 9/12, again ultra consistent, 2.1 on them earlier in the year.
 

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AFL 2021 AFL Round 14

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