iluvparis
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You realise Port are playing Richmond this week right?
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AFLW 2024 - Round 9 - Indigenous Round - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
AFL 2021 AFL Round 4
- Thread starter balmainforever
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You realise Port are playing Richmond this week right?
- Sep 17, 2014
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Port will win. It's round 3, not a final
kyiv
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Feel like Port will belt Richmond - they always lose heavily interstate at least once a year and Port will want to atone for last week in front of home fans. Wouldn't surprise me if they put them to the sword, although I want better odds than $5 for +40. Maybe will wait for Richmond to shorten or just take the Port line.
Jumped on the Collingwood line during the last quarter of the GWS game, and managed to get Collingwood -20.5 before it drifted to -24.5.
Dees look okay for $2.15, though maybe that's just my subconscious wishing to see Geelong's slow garbage get punished.
Jumped on the Collingwood line during the last quarter of the GWS game, and managed to get Collingwood -20.5 before it drifted to -24.5.
Dees look okay for $2.15, though maybe that's just my subconscious wishing to see Geelong's slow garbage get punished.
- Jun 16, 2018
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McKay is a good defender.
I'm not sure wtf was going on with Bruce last weekend.
At times it seemed like Ziebell was minding him
If I knew North were going to put Ziebell on Tex, I'd take $3.50 for six goals.
Not even joking.
AFL Round 3 Record
W/L: 29-34
P/L: +6.14 units
AFL 2021 Record
W/L: 76-80
P/L: +35.315 units
Already Posted
5u - Adelaide -15.5 - $1.90
Port Adelaide vs Richmond 
3u - Port Adelaide -6.5 - $2 - Ladbrokes
Both teams coming into this one off of losses. Richmond come into this one with Prestia, Vlaustin, McIntosh all to be ruled out, whilst even though Richmond are confident he’ll play there are question marks over Cotchins fitness. Mentality of these two teams are slightly different, Richmond know that they don’t have to win every regular season match to win the flag which is highlighted by their third place finish in each of their 3 flag years and come September time the tigers will be at their best. This young power side will have that win every game mentality coming into each game, and especially in a prime time Friday night game in front of the home crowd. In the last four years Richmond have only lost 23 of a possible 95 games so backing against them after a lost, but digging deeper, of those 23 losses 17 have been away from home where one team has had a home ground advantage (eg. In 2020 I excluded neutral grounds) for only a 51% win record. Port on the flip side are extremely strong at home and will be looking for revenge in front of the home fans for their loss in the Prelim final, they’ve done some solid work in the offseason bolstering their side with Aliir Aliir and Fantasia and come into this one at basically fall strength. Port smashed Richmond during the regular season last year by 21 points in a game which they dominated stats all over the ground. In the prelim they actually won a lot of the key stats also; +32 disposals, +6 contested possessions, +15 inside 50s. Unfortunately this was Port’s most inefficient game in terms of entering the forward 50 by a massive drop off of 17%. Port will be confident they have the blueprint to beat Richmond after doing it once last year. Port deserved favourites here and going to grab this one early.
Collingwood vs GWS 
3u - Collingwood -24.5 - $1.91 - 365
Starting to creep out to a 25 and probably stretching further once the injury news rolls in more. Giants look to be without some of their leaders/experienced heads with now Coniglio, Davis and De Boer likely to join Whitfield on the sidelines injured meaning 4/6 of the giants leadership squad are injured. Collingwood will be looking to put in a commanding performance after being unable to seal out the win vs Brisbane after leading all game until after the siren. Like Gawn was vs the Giants on the weekend, Grundy will be massive playing against the inexperienced Flynn. Grundy should run him off the park much like he did to the Brisbane rucks and will be key for the pies success. The Collingwood backline will match up well on GWS and will make in extremely difficult for them to hit up targets due to their slow uninspiring ball use. Whilst we may see top GWS scorer Greene thrown into the midfield to help inspire the team which will result in a weaker/less diverse forward line. Probably Collingwood’s “easiest” game of the season “on paper” and Saturday night at the MCG is the sort of place for a big stand up performance.
W/L: 29-34
P/L: +6.14 units
AFL 2021 Record
W/L: 76-80
P/L: +35.315 units
Already Posted5u - Adelaide -15.5 - $1.90
Port Adelaide vs Richmond 3u - Port Adelaide -6.5 - $2 - Ladbrokes
Both teams coming into this one off of losses. Richmond come into this one with Prestia, Vlaustin, McIntosh all to be ruled out, whilst even though Richmond are confident he’ll play there are question marks over Cotchins fitness. Mentality of these two teams are slightly different, Richmond know that they don’t have to win every regular season match to win the flag which is highlighted by their third place finish in each of their 3 flag years and come September time the tigers will be at their best. This young power side will have that win every game mentality coming into each game, and especially in a prime time Friday night game in front of the home crowd. In the last four years Richmond have only lost 23 of a possible 95 games so backing against them after a lost, but digging deeper, of those 23 losses 17 have been away from home where one team has had a home ground advantage (eg. In 2020 I excluded neutral grounds) for only a 51% win record. Port on the flip side are extremely strong at home and will be looking for revenge in front of the home fans for their loss in the Prelim final, they’ve done some solid work in the offseason bolstering their side with Aliir Aliir and Fantasia and come into this one at basically fall strength. Port smashed Richmond during the regular season last year by 21 points in a game which they dominated stats all over the ground. In the prelim they actually won a lot of the key stats also; +32 disposals, +6 contested possessions, +15 inside 50s. Unfortunately this was Port’s most inefficient game in terms of entering the forward 50 by a massive drop off of 17%. Port will be confident they have the blueprint to beat Richmond after doing it once last year. Port deserved favourites here and going to grab this one early.
Collingwood vs GWS 3u - Collingwood -24.5 - $1.91 - 365
Starting to creep out to a 25 and probably stretching further once the injury news rolls in more. Giants look to be without some of their leaders/experienced heads with now Coniglio, Davis and De Boer likely to join Whitfield on the sidelines injured meaning 4/6 of the giants leadership squad are injured. Collingwood will be looking to put in a commanding performance after being unable to seal out the win vs Brisbane after leading all game until after the siren. Like Gawn was vs the Giants on the weekend, Grundy will be massive playing against the inexperienced Flynn. Grundy should run him off the park much like he did to the Brisbane rucks and will be key for the pies success. The Collingwood backline will match up well on GWS and will make in extremely difficult for them to hit up targets due to their slow uninspiring ball use. Whilst we may see top GWS scorer Greene thrown into the midfield to help inspire the team which will result in a weaker/less diverse forward line. Probably Collingwood’s “easiest” game of the season “on paper” and Saturday night at the MCG is the sort of place for a big stand up performance.
I'm taking Collingwood 60+ @ 5.70. Giants had 13 scoring shots on the weekend and 7 of them were from Toby Greene. Pies backline to shut him down and this one could get messy.
chrisdon16
@AFLsystembet
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5u - Adelaide -15.5 - $1.90
3u - Collingwood -24.5 - $1.91 - 365
Starting to creep out to a 25 and probably stretching further once the injury news rolls in more. Giants look to be without some of their leaders/experienced heads with now Coniglio, Davis and De Boer likely to join Whitfield on the sidelines injured meaning 4/6 of the giants leadership squad are injured. Collingwood will be looking to put in a commanding performance after being unable to seal out the win vs Brisbane after leading all game until after the siren. Like Gawn was vs the Giants on the weekend, Grundy will be massive playing against the inexperienced Flynn. Grundy should run him off the park much like he did to the Brisbane rucks and will be key for the pies success. The Collingwood backline will match up well on GWS and will make in extremely difficult for them to hit up targets due to their slow uninspiring ball use. Whilst we may see top GWS scorer Greene thrown into the midfield to help inspire the team which will result in a weaker/less diverse forward line. Probably Collingwood’s “easiest” game of the season “on paper” and Saturday night at the MCG is the sort of place for a big stand up performance.
GWS for me played as well as they could, despite their injuries mounting during and before the game. GWS draw now seems a bit of a nightmare with : Collingwood, Sydney and the Bulldogs in the upcoming weeks. They will do well to be competitive in at least 1 , let alone win one of those matches. The Giants are $3.40 to Make the Top 8, which is a joke price. I think a realistic price for them to make the 8 from here should be at least $8.00 or more.
The other game I will be keeping a close eye on is Gold Coast v Carlton. With Jarrod Witts going down in Round 3, I will be interested to see how their backup ruckman goes against Pittonet. (Carlton's ruckman)
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
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Looks like money is coming in for the Power.
Tigers out to +7.5 and 2.30
Tigers out to +7.5 and 2.30
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Taken Port at the line
Think they bounce back strongly and Tigers not at their best early on + key injuries.
Think they bounce back strongly and Tigers not at their best early on + key injuries.
AFL YTD:
15/29 won, a respectable +1.65% ROI so far haha
I'm actually pretty happy with that, usually I don't start the year well as it takes atleast a month to catch up on the form guide.
15/29 won, a respectable +1.65% ROI so far haha
I'm actually pretty happy with that, usually I don't start the year well as it takes atleast a month to catch up on the form guide.
Their backup ruckman Zac Smith is also injured. Sam Day who pinch hits while playing key forward is injured too. They're screwed.
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
If it gets out to $2.50 I'm not going to let the Tigers go around at that price.
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Can Carlton be trusted yet that's the issue? Yeah they beat Freo...but I'm not sold on them yet.
Very keen Cats $1.70
Do not rate the Dees, they beat Freo (yuck) Saints (that formline not looking great right now) and GWS (only got on top once Davis, De Boer and Coniglio were one for the game).
Cats form has been questionable too but i'm willing to back in the experienced outfit.
Not sure if any margin bets are the play but I'm feeling a reality check for the Dees this week and very confident H2H.
Do not rate the Dees, they beat Freo (yuck) Saints (that formline not looking great right now) and GWS (only got on top once Davis, De Boer and Coniglio were one for the game).
Cats form has been questionable too but i'm willing to back in the experienced outfit.
Not sure if any margin bets are the play but I'm feeling a reality check for the Dees this week and very confident H2H.
I'm not huge on Carlton this year, but they do have some advantages in this game. Jones + Weitering should dominate King with Day out. Pittonet should dominate the stand in ruckman and midfield should get on top with no Witts and Rowell.
Walker kicked a bag last week so good indications for McKay.
Without Budarick, Day, Witts and Rowell they lose structure and talent wise they are starting to look quite ordinary. If Blues can't get within a couple of points here when they have finals aspirations then it's season over.
It's helpful that Cripps hit form because there were concerns he was carrying an injury.
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Look I'll be tipping Carlton but it's not a game I'm going near betting on. They have been prone to be the ultimate tease in the last two years.
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
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Carlton are a punters nightmare, really good at winning games they should lose and losing games that they should win.
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Yep tend to avoid them. Maybe look at the points totals but apart from that it's a no bet
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
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That's why he said 'winning' not 'covering the line'
