AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

[balmainforever]

 

[footyfan35]

Most 3 vote games?

Did a count on one of the Predictors for most 3 vote games and it ended like this.
Bont 7
Steele 7
Parish 7
Walsh 7
Oliver 6
Wines 6

I'm guessing the dead heat rule will apply if it's a tie, but there might be some value there.

 

[footyfan35]

Libba or Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

for most votes at the Dogs without Bont or Macrae? Like Libba, but Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

maybe stands out a bit more with run and carry and a mullet lol

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

$1.90 at first, moved into $1.80 then back out

It opened at $2.50

 

[Billionaire Panda]

thinking someone like Parish @9 might be value
this market might get shafted by dead heat rules I think....betfair predictor has top 5 all getting 4-5 BOGs, Bont with 6 potentially

He actually opened at $41 for most 3 vote games on Pointsbet Took him with Bont @ 3.50 and then they brought both of them in straight away

 

[5 Bucks]

I've got Bont with 8 three vote games, one clear of the next best. Boak a sneaky chance to poll 7 and Bont might get a 2 behind Macrae in one match.

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Yeah Boak worth a stab at $101

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

Macrae to finish outside the top 10 @1.85 love it. Anyone know what this opened at?

1.80 then crunched into 1.85

 

[RobbyRoy]

The best model for determining 3 votes is just watching the game from start to finish.

In theory sure. But it's a lot different watching the game as an observer to being out there amongst it while also trying to do your own job. I don't personally like it, but the umps having the vote makes things interesting and there certainly are key areas they focus on.

I struggle to give out certain 3 vote games, and I'm sure every one of here has been burnt by them many times in the past.

 

[benji21]

AFLCA 10 votes predicts 3 Brownlow votes less than 70% of the time (based on 2016-2019)...

View attachment 1222752

Would be interesting to see the percentage if you take into account only 10s that midfielders get.

 

[5 Bucks]

20+, 25+ votes markets up on PB and you CAN multi them

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

20+, 25+ votes markets up on PB and you CAN multi them

Old news mate

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

Someone pointed to Wines getting top coaches votes as another factor of why he gets 3 v Carlton in the match a reviewed a while back. He topped the coaches votes with 8, which is ~25% chance of getting the 3 according to the data. Interesting stuff!

I guess 8 votes could be clear second best behind the clear 10 votes though, which is a clear 2 brownlow votes. Would be interesting to see how often 8 coaches votes equates to 3 brownlow votes if 8 is the highest that the coaches award in that particular match.

Based on 2019:

198 games total
Exclude 30 due to CV ties (e.g. 2 players on 9 votes)

Remaining 168:

 

[Islanda22]

Top 5:

1. Oliver - 30.5
2. Wines - 30
3. Bont - 29.8
4. Steele 29.6
5. Petracca - 25.6

 

[invisible_]

Wines $3 to poll in most games and dogs most team votes at $15 both good value on TAB

 

[invisible_]

Talked to SB and they are starting to put up BYO requests today/tomorrow. Need to livechat message them with the market (not twitter as hashtag suggests).

Surely you degens have some interesting ones to propose

 

[BigInsideMid]

Talked to SB and they are starting to put up BYO requests today/tomorrow. Need to livechat message them with the market (not twitter as hashtag suggests).

Surely you degens have some interesting ones to propose

Strange, this is what they said to me.

 

[NonPhixion]

Looks like SB has adopted the PB tactics with these BYO's. Odds are tight as fk

 

[Frinkle]

Looks like SB has adopted the PB tactics with these BYO's. Odds are tight as fk

It’s like those arseholes don’t actually want us to win money or something

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Who is suggesting these bets anyway? Trolls?
Fyfe, Martin, Allir to combine for more than 37 votes?

 

[Tigers04]

Can anyone remember when the h2h markets get released, usually TAB have good ones and you can multi them also

 

[FootyStar#1]

Who is suggesting these bets anyway? Trolls?
Fyfe, Martin, Allir to combine for more than 37 votes?

They're ****ing woeful aren't they

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Surprising Guthrie and Gawn to combine for 35+ votes has come into $4.50 from $7

 

[bugnuck]

Surprising Guthrie and Gawn to combine for 35+ votes has come into $4.50 from $7

Opened at $8

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Sean Darcy

4

Sean Darcy

Age

26

Ht

203cm

Wt

111kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.1

3star

K

3.4

1star

HB

6.6

4star

CL

2.4

4star

HO

28.8

5star

D

6.8

1star

K

2.0

1star

HB

4.8

3star

CL

1.8

4star

HO

20.3

5star

D

11.4

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

6.8

5star

CL

2.6

5star

HO

32.0

5star

a chance @ $3 to get votes in 5 games?

Top coaches votes in 3 games and in 8 games in total

 

[DT_35]

I meant Brouch most team votes without laird. Only threat is Tex and maybe Seedsman
Edit: without steele*

What in the f*** LOL