AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

[balmainforever]

 

[bugnuck]

Guthrie seems to be great value at $2.15. Most counts have him on 12-14 votes, needing a further 3 at most to be safe based off previous years polling. He was very slow to get into form coming back from injury, but looks the goods now. Geelong have a favourable schedule with Richmond, North, GWS, Saints and Melbourne on the run home. If you are looking for a bit of juice to add to Guthrie, Merrett or titch seem to be the under priced juicers this week. Titchs 3 on the weekend and Merretts incredible month all but guarantee there spot in the top 20 with counts having both of them between 15-18

Also like BigInsideMids call of mills at $4. I know he has this week off as well but counts have him between 11-14. This gives him 4 weeks to accumulate between 2-5 votes based off the stated vote margin. Mills also has a favourable run home with Essendon, saints, north and GC. He still requires votes in his last 4 matches which has him far from a certainty but at his price is definitely value.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Better than bank interest

 

[salaterra]

Guthrie seems to be great value at $2.15. Most counts have him on 12-14 votes, needing a further 3 at most to be safe based off previous years polling. He was very slow to get into form coming back from injury, but looks the goods now. Geelong have a favourable schedule with Richmond, North, GWS, Saints and Melbourne on the run home. If you are looking for a bit of juice to add to Guthrie, Merrett or titch seem to be the under priced juicers this week. Titchs 3 on the weekend and Merretts incredible month all but guarantee there spot in the top 20 with counts having both of them between 15-18

Also like BigInsideMids call of mills at $4. I know he has this week off as well but counts have him between 11-14. This gives him 4 weeks to accumulate between 2-5 votes based off the stated vote margin. Mills also has a favourable run home with Essendon, saints, north and GC. He still requires votes in his last 4 matches which has him far from a certainty but at his price is definitely value.

I agree with your call on gutherie, top 4 side, and certainly showing last week back to full fitness.

I have to disagree on mills though, at $4 does he present value with his run home? absolutely. But as an unproven poller, and with only a maximum of 4 games based on my count to pol 3.5 votes, it is a stretch, especially with parker and buddy finding so much form.

 

[salaterra]

Managed to get 50$ on, all I could do

are your bets being limited by SB as well?

 

[salaterra]

Dusty ain't polling in round 11.

I said he's a very slight chance, you have to take into account that players like Lachie Neale polled 3 votes with 21 touches last year, Dangerfield, 2 votes with 19 touches, Dusty was big in round 11, despite what the stats show, and tigers will receive all 6 of the votes.

 

[dontlimitme]

are your bets being limited by SB as well?

not in general, was just the max i could put on that market, same as my friend who could only get 50 on

 

[EFL Boy]

I said he's a very slight chance, you have to take into account that players like Lachie Neale polled 3 votes with 21 touches last year, Dangerfield, 2 votes with 19 touches, Dusty was big in round 11, despite what the stats show, and tigers will receive all 6 of the votes.

You said he's a slight chance for Round 4 & 13.

"round 1, 2, 5, 11, and 12 all polling games. Round 4 and 13 a slight sniff as well, very slight."

I get your point RE others polling. There were just many others who were better on the day and he's not polling imo.

 

[EFL Boy]

Round 19 wish list

PA vs Coll
3 - Adams
2 - Boak
1 - De Goey

Carl vs NM
3 - Walsh
2 - Cunnington
1 - Hall

BL vs GC
3 - Lyons
2 - Miller
1 - McCluggage

WC vs STK
3 - T. Kelly
2 - Steele
1 - Gaff

MEL vs WB
3 - Gawn
2 - Oliver
1 - Macrae

ADEL vs HAW
3 - Laird
2 - Mitchell
1 - Walker

SYD vs FRE
3 - Brayshaw
2 - Mundy
1 - Parker

GEEL vs RICH
3 - Dangerfield
2 - Guthrie
1 - Hawkins

ESS vs GWS
3 - J. Kelly
2 - Merrett
1 - Hopper

 

[Tigers04]

What are peoples thoughts on mills and mcluggage? I have mills on 13 and clug on 16.
Decent odds for top 20 for the both of them

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

I've got McCluggage on 13 (15th position)

Mills 11 (18th)

 

[salaterra]

What are peoples thoughts on mills and mcluggage? I have mills on 13 and clug on 16.
Decent odds for top 20 for the both of them

Mills presents value at $4 however, I have him outside the 20 at this stage, and he is going to miss another game, I wouldn't touch him this week, his odds shouldn't change, as he isn't playing, and you will be able to gauge what the other players do around him

 

[salaterra]

Round 19 wish list

PA vs Coll
3 - Adams
2 - Boak
1 - De Goey

Carl vs NM
3 - Walsh
2 - Cunnington
1 - Hall

BL vs GC
3 - Lyons
2 - Miller
1 - McCluggage

WC vs STK
3 - T. Kelly
2 - Steele
1 - Gaff

MEL vs WB
3 - Gawn
2 - Oliver
1 - Macrae

ADEL vs HAW
3 - Laird
2 - Mitchell
1 - Walker

SYD vs FRE
3 - Brayshaw
2 - Mundy
1 - Parker

GEEL vs RICH
3 - Dangerfield
2 - Guthrie
1 - Hawkins

ESS vs GWS
3 - J. Kelly
2 - Merrett
1 - Hopper

Again very similar wish list to me, however, personally, I don't want any freo players polling, and certainly not Gaff or cunnington for my bets haha. The rest is pretty much identical, to what I would want. Gawn, Tim Kelly, Lyons, Boak especially

 

[salaterra]

You said he's a slight chance for Round 4 & 13.

"round 1, 2, 5, 11, and 12 all polling games. Round 4 and 13 a slight sniff as well, very slight."

I get your point RE others polling. There were just many others who were better on the day and he's not polling imo.

Oh wow, I confused myself with the rounds, yeah you're right, much more unlikely than I expected there, but don't be surprised if in rounds 4, 11 and 13, he pulls a vote or two.

 

[Crownlow]

Dustin martin possible votes:

Round	SN	BYB	Betfair	ESPN	Average	Min	Max
1​	3​	3​	3​	3​	3​	3​	3​
2​	3​	3​	2.5​	3​	2.875​	2​	3​
3​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​
4​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​
5​	0​	2.5​	1.5​	0.5​	1.125​	0​	3​
6​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​
8​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​
9​	3​	2.5​	3​	3​	2.875​	2​	3​
10​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​
11​	0​	0​	0.5​	0​	0.125​	0​	1​
12​	2​	2​	1.5​	2.5​	2​	1​	3​
13​	0​	0​	0.5​	0.5​	0.25​	0​	1​
15​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​
16​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​
17​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​
18​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​
	11​	13​	12.5​	12.5​	12.25​	8​	17​

 

[salaterra]

Dustin martin possible votes:

Round	SN	BYB	Betfair	ESPN	Average	Min	Max
1​	3​	3​	3​	3​	3​	3​	3​
2​	3​	3​	2.5​	3​	2.875​	2​	3​
3​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​
4​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​
5​	0​	2.5​	1.5​	0.5​	1.125​	0​	3​
6​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​
8​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​
9​	3​	2.5​	3​	3​	2.875​	2​	3​
10​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​
11​	0​	0​	0.5​	0​	0.125​	0​	1​
12​	2​	2​	1.5​	2.5​	2​	1​	3​
13​	0​	0​	0.5​	0.5​	0.25​	0​	1​
15​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​
16​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​
17​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​
18​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​
	11​	13​	12.5​	12.5​	12.25​	8​	17​

I love it, if he hits 14, he very well could finish 19-20th

 

[burge13]

Dustin martin possible votes:

Round	SN	BYB	Betfair	ESPN	Average	Min	Max
1​	3​	3​	3​	3​	3​	3​	3​
2​	3​	3​	2.5​	3​	2.875​	2​	3​
3​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​
4​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​
5​	0​	2.5​	1.5​	0.5​	1.125​	0​	3​
6​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​
8​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​
9​	3​	2.5​	3​	3​	2.875​	2​	3​
10​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​
11​	0​	0​	0.5​	0​	0.125​	0​	1​
12​	2​	2​	1.5​	2.5​	2​	1​	3​
13​	0​	0​	0.5​	0.5​	0.25​	0​	1​
15​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​
16​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​
17​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​
18​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​	0​
	11​	13​	12.5​	12.5​	12.25​	8​	17​

Got the same thing for Hopper by chance?

 

[BigInsideMid]

Earlier in the thread there was discussion on Taylor Adams

3

Taylor Adams

Age

31

Ht

181cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

24.9

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

11.4

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

4.8

5star

CL

5.0

5star

D

20.4

5star

K

12.4

5star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

5.9

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

18.2

5star

K

11.0

4star

HB

7.2

5star

M

4.4

4star

T

3.0

5star

CL

2.2

4star

at $15 to win Collingwood's votes. I've been riding it but noticing DeGoey to start getting a little too far ahead for my liking. Thinking of getting on JDG also, which will guarantee a handy profit regardless of the result. I can't see Grundy interfering with this. Did anyone else get on this?

 

[Crownlow]

Got the same thing for Hopper by chance?

Year

Player

Team

Opponent

Game

Round

Margin

SN

BYB

Betfair

ESPN

Average

Min

Max

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

ST Kilda

8​

1​

L

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

Fremantle

17​

2​

L

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

Melbourne

26​

3​

L

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

Collingwood

33​

4​

W

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

Sydney

39​

5​

W

1​

1​

1.5​

1.5​

1.25​

1​

2​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

Western Bulldogs

46​

6​

L

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

Adelaide

56​

7​

W

0​

0​

1​

0​

0.25​

0​

1​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

Essendon

66​

8​

W

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

Richmond

78​

9​

L

1​

1​

2​

2​

1.5​

1​

2​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

West Coast

88​

10​

L

0​

0​

0.5​

1​

0.375​

0​

1​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

Brisbane

93​

11​

L

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

North Melbourne

110​

13​

D

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

Carlton

116​

14​

W

2​

0.5​

1.5​

2​

1.5​

0​

2​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

Hawthorn

124​

15​

L

0​

0​

0​

1​

0.25​

0​

1​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

Melbourne

129​

16​

W

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

Gold Coast

141​

17​

L

2​

1​

0.5​

1.5​

1.25​

0​

2​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

Sydney

153​

18​

L

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

6​

3.5​

7​

9​

6.375​

2​

11​

 

[burge13]

Year

Player

Team

Opponent

Game

Round

Margin

SN

BYB

Betfair

ESPN

Average

Min

Max

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

ST Kilda

8​

1​

L

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

Fremantle

17​

2​

L

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

Melbourne

26​

3​

L

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

Collingwood

33​

4​

W

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

Sydney

39​

5​

W

1​

1​

1.5​

1.5​

1.25​

1​

2​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

Western Bulldogs

46​

6​

L

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

Adelaide

56​

7​

W

0​

0​

1​

0​

0.25​

0​

1​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

Essendon

66​

8​

W

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

Richmond

78​

9​

L

1​

1​

2​

2​

1.5​

1​

2​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

West Coast

88​

10​

L

0​

0​

0.5​

1​

0.375​

0​

1​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

Brisbane

93​

11​

L

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

North Melbourne

110​

13​

D

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

Carlton

116​

14​

W

2​

0.5​

1.5​

2​

1.5​

0​

2​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

Hawthorn

124​

15​

L

0​

0​

0​

1​

0.25​

0​

1​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

Melbourne

129​

16​

W

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

Gold Coast

141​

17​

L

2​

1​

0.5​

1.5​

1.25​

0​

2​

2021​

Hopper, Jacob

GWS

Sydney

153​

18​

L

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

6​

3.5​

7​

9​

6.375​

2​

11​

Gonna need him to lift NonPhixion

 

[TurbosTeam]

Earlier in the thread there was discussion on Taylor Adams at $15 to win Collingwood's votes. I've been riding it but noticing DeGoey to start getting a little too far ahead for my liking. Thinking of getting on JDG also, which will guarantee a handy profit regardless of the result. I can't see Grundy interfering with this. Did anyone else get on this?

Yeah I got on Adams at $15 a while back. De Goey has a great role plus much higher goal chance week to week which is making me nervous. Might have to dabble a little something on him as you mentioned.

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

My absurdly over-analysed simulated leaderboard. As at the end of round 18.

Rank	Team	Player	Average Votes
1​	Melbourne	Oliver, Clayton	23.7​
2​	Port Adelaide	Wines, Ollie	23.4​
3​	St Kilda	Steele, Jack	22.1​
4​	Melbourne	Petracca, Christian	21.3​
5​	Western Bulldogs	Bontempelli, Marcus	21.2​
6​	Carlton	Walsh, Sam	21.2​
7​	Essendon	Parish, Darcy	18.8​
8​	Hawthorn	Mitchell, Tom	17.6​
9​	Gold Coast	Miller, Touk	17.0​
10​	Essendon	Merrett, Zach	16.9​
11​	Western Bulldogs	Macrae, Jack	16.5​
12​	Geelong	Guthrie, Cameron	14.8​
13​	Port Adelaide	Boak, Travis	14.1​
14​	Adelaide	Laird, Rory	13.9​
15​	Brisbane Lions	McCluggage, Hugh	13.8​
16​	North Melbourne	Cunnington, Ben	12.9​
17​	Brisbane Lions	Lyons, Jarryd	12.8​
18​	Richmond	Martin, Dustin	12.3​
19​	Fremantle	Mundy, David	11.7​
20​	Sydney	Mills, Callum	10.6​
21​	Collingwood	de Goey, Jordan	10.5​
22​	Sydney	Parker, Luke	10.2​
23​	Brisbane Lions	Zorko, Dayne	10.0​
24​	Greater Western Sydney	Kelly, Josh	9.9​
25​	Melbourne	Gawn, Max	9.8​
26​	Greater Western Sydney	Greene, Toby	9.7​
27​	Adelaide	Walker, Taylor	9.3​
28​	Western Bulldogs	Liberatore, Tom	8.7​
29​	Greater Western Sydney	Taranto, Tim	8.5​
30​	West Coast	Gaff, Andrew	8.3​

 

[Johanpetro]

My absurdly over-analysed simulated leaderboard. As at the end of round 18.

Rank	Team	Player	Average Votes
1​	Melbourne	Oliver, Clayton	23.7​
2​	Port Adelaide	Wines, Ollie	23.4​
3​	St Kilda	Steele, Jack	22.1​
4​	Melbourne	Petracca, Christian	21.3​
5​	Western Bulldogs	Bontempelli, Marcus	21.2​
6​	Carlton	Walsh, Sam	21.2​
7​	Essendon	Parish, Darcy	18.8​
8​	Hawthorn	Mitchell, Tom	17.6​
9​	Gold Coast	Miller, Touk	17.0​
10​	Essendon	Merrett, Zach	16.9​
11​	Western Bulldogs	Macrae, Jack	16.5​
12​	Geelong	Guthrie, Cameron	14.8​
13​	Port Adelaide	Boak, Travis	14.1​
14​	Adelaide	Laird, Rory	13.9​
15​	Brisbane Lions	McCluggage, Hugh	13.8​
16​	North Melbourne	Cunnington, Ben	12.9​
17​	Brisbane Lions	Lyons, Jarryd	12.8​
18​	Richmond	Martin, Dustin	12.3​
19​	Fremantle	Mundy, David	11.7​
20​	Sydney	Mills, Callum	10.6​
21​	Collingwood	de Goey, Jordan	10.5​
22​	Sydney	Parker, Luke	10.2​
23​	Brisbane Lions	Zorko, Dayne	10.0​
24​	Greater Western Sydney	Kelly, Josh	9.9​
25​	Melbourne	Gawn, Max	9.8​
26​	Greater Western Sydney	Greene, Toby	9.7​
27​	Adelaide	Walker, Taylor	9.3​
28​	Western Bulldogs	Liberatore, Tom	8.7​
29​	Greater Western Sydney	Taranto, Tim	8.5​
30​	West Coast	Gaff, Andrew	8.3​

I’d stand to win a hefty amount if that’s the final standings

 

[footyfan35]

Thoughts on Luke Parker

26

Luke Parker

Age

32

Ht

183cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

24.2

5star

K

12.6

5star

HB

11.6

5star

M

3.8

4star

T

5.6

5star

CL

5.8

5star

D

22.1

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

9.9

5star

M

3.9

4star

T

5.0

5star

CL

5.5

5star

D

21.2

5star

K

11.4

4star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

8.0

5star

CL

5.2

5star

for a top 20 finish? Normally polls pretty well and is playing some good footy

 

[squeaky1000]

Big fan on Cam Guthrie most Geelong votes at $1.75 sb

Should have at minimum a 2-3 vote lead currently and could quite conceivably be as much as 5 or so votes. Selwood likely the closest on a maximum of about 8, Dangerfield probably the only other realistic chance and he would need to go on a massive polling spree over the next 5 weeks. Price seems overs for me

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Big fan on Cam Guthrie most Geelong votes at $1.75 sb

Should have at minimum a 2-3 vote lead currently and could quite conceivably be as much as 5 or so votes. Selwood likely the closest on a maximum of about 8, Dangerfield probably the only other realistic chance and he would need to go on a massive polling spree over the next 5 weeks. Price seems overs for me

Apparently Danger gets 3 votes against Freo so not unrealistic.