AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

[balmainforever]

 

[5 Bucks]

Boxed first 4 of
Wines, oliver, Bont and Steele
$4.
Cant see anyone else finishing top 4.

I've got Walsh as the joint winner

 

[Prochard123]

Top 5: Bont, Wines, Oliver, Steele

Top 10: Petracca, Walsh

Top 20: Merrett, Boak

$4.20 odds ish, reasonably happy with most of them.

Most uncomfortable item is actually Wines, which is also the shortest leg ($1.12, maybe I should reconsider for future bets)

 

[Prochard123]

Can I also ask what was the biggest surprise last year when it came to top 5/10/20? Was it just Menegola that ruined those multis?

 

[FootyStar#1]

My final count

Final count
1. J. Steele 29
2. C. Oliver 28
3. M. Bontempelli 27
4. O. Wines 26
5. S. Walsh 25
6. Z. Merrett, C. Petracca 23
8. T. Mitchell 22
9. T. Miller 20
10. T. Boak, J. Macrae 19

Main things that concern me are Walsh seems overpolled, and I have Oliver polling in an extraordinary amount of games - if he has a good polling year he could go 33+, if he argued with the umps too much he will be around 22-23!

It's not all that whack to have 8 players over 20 - 2019 and 2016 were similar years. Plus this year has seen a fair amount of mids consistently churn out huge numbers week in week out, so I fully expect the standouts to poll well in wins and scab a few in losses.
I did see someone discussing the top heaviness of their top 20 - discussed 36% being a common number for previous years. I had 35.3%.

Really hope I'm close to the mark, not just for betting but makes Brownlow night interesting, goes into round 23 with Bont 27, Steele 26, Oliver, Walsh 25, Wines 24 - just a few here and there and it's a 3 or 4 way tie..

Interesting count mate. Could I ask what you have Parish finishing on? So Merrett is at least 4 votes in front of him?

I also reckon there will be a large number of players polling over 20 this year, possible 10-12 players. We can always look at history for trends however you can only take each game on its merit and this year that's how it has seemed to pan out with a large group of consistent dominant midfielders.

 

[FootyStar#1]

Can I also ask what was the biggest surprise last year when it came to top 5/10/20? Was it just Menegola that ruined those multis?

Menegola was definitely the biggest outlier. Also I agree with you, I'd take out wines from the top 5 leg. Although I do think he will finish top 5, his range of votes is too wide for me.

 

[Tigers04]

Menegola was definitely the biggest outlier. Also I agree with you, I'd take out wines from the top 5 leg. Although I do think he will finish top 5, his range of votes is too wide for me.

Couldn’t agree more with this, wines isn’t a proven poller. Has had a fantastic year and worthy of favouritism but can see him falling short also.
I think I speak on behalf of most people in here, menegola cost everyone a fair chunk of profit last year

 

[LongBombFromOutside50]

Couldn’t agree more with this, wines isn’t a proven poller. Has had a fantastic year and worthy of favouritism but can see him falling short also.
I think I speak on behalf of most people in here, menegola cost everyone a fair chunk of profit last year

Wines has had four seasons where he's polled double digits votes (including 18 votes in 2017). Prior to last year Menegola had never polled double digits in a season. Hardly think they're comparable. If Wines doesn't get up, it won't be because he isn't a proven poller.

 

[EFL Boy]

Couldn’t agree more with this, wines isn’t a proven poller. Has had a fantastic year and worthy of favouritism but can see him falling short also.

So here's his season:

RD 1: 30 disposals, W
RD 2: 38 disposals, W
RD 3: 26 disposals, L
RD 4: 27 disposals, W
RD 5: 32 disposals, W
RD 6: 36 disposals, W
RD 7: 37 disposals, L
RD 8: 24 disposals, W
RD 9: 32 disposals, L
RD 10: 27 disposals, W
RD 11: 35 disposals, W
RD 13: 29 disposals, L
RD 14: 43 disposals, W
RD 15: 29 disposals, W
RD 16: 43 disposals, W
RD 17: 33 disposals, L
RD 18: 36 disposals, W
RD 19: 30 disposals, W
RD 20: 28 disposals, W
RD 21: 26 disposals, W
RD 22: 31 disposals, W
RD 23: 34 disposals, W

So prior to this year, whenever Wines had 27+ disposals AND Port Adelaide won, Wines averaged 1.8 votes per game. 20/26 games in which he met these targets, he polled.

He reached this target 15 times this season. 15 x 1.8 = 27.

 

[Tigers04]

Wines has had four seasons where he's polled double digits votes (including 18 votes in 2017). Prior to last year Menegola had never polled double digits in a season. Hardly think they're comparable. If Wines doesn't get up, it won't be because he isn't a proven poller.

Yeah that’s fair enough, can’t say I’ve paid close attention to wines over the last few years and researched his Brownlow polling so happy to cop that one on the chin haha.

Just on last nights game how good was macrae and bailey smith, smith should beat libba, stands out a fair bit with his outside run and carry, some agencies can get approx $3 odds.

 

[Mrose45]

I love this time of the year!

Www.downlowonthebrownlow.com.au is back to give you an extensive look on how the Brownlow should shape up. We have 15 different counts and a whole bunch of data at the tip of your fingers.

This isn’t for everyone but there may be some people here who would like some extra insight. This is for those people.
Good luck to everyone punting. I hope we can take every dollar from the betting agencies

 

[AjsGuns]

Top 5: Bont, Wines, Oliver, Steele

Top 10: Petracca, Walsh

Top 20: Merrett, Boak

$4.20 odds ish, reasonably happy with most of them.

Most uncomfortable item is actually Wines, which is also the shortest leg ($1.12, maybe I should reconsider for future bets)

I like the top 20 and top 10, would be very surprised if those didn't hit. Top 5 is a little stacked IMO, all it takes is for one of them to underpoll, e.g. Oliver who has history of underpolling and all of a sudden a Walsh and Petracca poll more. Decent odds at $4.20 though.

I actually like Steele the best for top 5, who is the best odds.

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

I like the top 20 and top 10, would be very surprised if those didn't hit. Top 5 is a little stacked IMO, all it takes is for one of them to underpoll, e.g. Oliver who has history of underpolling and all of a sudden a Walsh and Petracca poll more. Decent odds at $4.20 though.

I actually like Steele the best for top 5, who is the best odds.

Oliver actually overpolled to expectations last year (had him on 10 votes and he polled 14 rounding out the top 10). I'd be shocked if Oliver misses the top 5 and I actually have him winning the whole thing.

Although agreed that the top 5 is stacked and there is a slight risk including 4 out of the 5 in a multi.

 

[AjsGuns]

Oliver actually overpolled to expectations last year (had him on 10 votes and he polled 14 rounding out the top 10). I'd be shocked if Oliver misses the top 5 and I actually have him winning the whole thing.

Although agreed that the top 5 is stacked and there is a slight risk including 4 out of the 5 in a multi.

I was only using him as an example as to why it isn't the best idea. As someone else noted you also don't get max value for your odds, as you are shrinking the field with each player you put in a top 5. I was also referring to 2018 were Oliver severely underpolled. He was 5-10 below many peoples count and constantly talks back to umpires. He cost me quiet a bit of $$$ in 2018. I managed to get Oliver at 34s this year, so would be great if he wins - missed the big odds on Wines, but managed to get Steele and Oliver at big odds.

 

[Tigers04]

Is anyone doing a round by round 3 vote roll over or has anyone been successful in previous years? Personally I think I got to round 12 last year when dom sheed played Carlton kicked 2 goals and had 25odd, was clearly best player on the ground and didn’t get a vote

 

[Mrose45]

Is anyone doing a round by round 3 vote roll over or has anyone been successful in previous years? Personally I think I got to round 12 last year when dom sheed played Carlton kicked 2 goals and had 25odd, was clearly best player on the ground and didn’t get a vote

we cover that in our Brownlow package mate.

 

[EFL Boy]

Is anyone doing a round by round 3 vote roll over or has anyone been successful in previous years? Personally I think I got to round 12 last year when dom sheed played Carlton kicked 2 goals and had 25odd, was clearly best player on the ground and didn’t get a vote

Yep, will be doing so this year. Thinking to maybe start it and bank it every 7ish rounds or so. Not sure yet.

 

[dontlimitme]

we cover that in our Brownlow package mate.

 

[Peterjv]

we cover that in our Brownlow package mate.

Correct me if I'm wrong, however wasn't it last year you were extremely confident that Fyfe was going to be in the Top 10 and was extremely good value? Furthermore the DownlowOnTheBrownlow supposedly backed up your claim, and you actively promoted people buying it (whilst dedicated punters are posting in here for free). Fyfe ended up finishing =20th for the record ...

 

[botswana42]

we cover that in our Brownlow package mate.

people in here post for free and help each other out with the same sort of of stuff your service provides. A quick check on your site and i can't find any results or tracking to prove that your service is profitable or in any way superior to the regular punters doing their counts or the many public predictions or models avaialble?

 

[dontlimitme]

people in here post for free and help each other out with the same sort of of stuff your service provides. A quick check on your site and i can't find any results or tracking to prove that your service is profitable or in any way superior to the regular punters doing their counts or the many public predictions or models avaialble?

the website looks like it was made by a child

 

[Mrose45]

Correct me if I'm wrong, however wasn't it last year you were extremely confident that Fyfe was going to be in the Top 10 and was extremely good value? Furthermore the DownlowOnTheBrownlow supposedly backed up your claim, and you actively promoted people buying it (whilst dedicated punters are posting in here for free). Fyfe ended up finishing =20th for the record ...

that was one of our tips, yes. But we also correctly picked the top 4. So it all depends what you want to focus on. A tip is a tip. We just go by what the data has given us over all the counts we have compiled together. Here is our top 20 count from last year

 

[Geeves Train]

I love this time of the year!

Www.downlowonthebrownlow.com.au is back to give you an extensive look on how the Brownlow should shape up. We have 15 different counts and a whole bunch of data at the tip of your fingers.

This isn’t for everyone but there may be some people here who would like some extra insight. This is for those people.
Good luck to everyone punting. I hope we can take every dollar from the betting agencies

At least this year you are owning it as opposed to 2020 when you led with “tHeSe GuYs SeEm PrEtTy GoOd” hahaha

 

[NonPhixion]

These BYOB markets on SB are a major disappointment.

Last year there were so many good bets on this market.
There is maybe 2 that are playable

 

[Mrose45]

At least this year you are owning it as opposed to 2020 when you led with “tHeSe GuYs SeEm PrEtTy GoOd” hahaha

They are pretty good though lel

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

They are pretty good though lel

Very impressed you lads picked the incredibly unpredictable top 4 last year! Great stuff, I’ve subscribed