AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

[balmainforever]

 

[offthebusgus]

VALUE - TOP 5, 10 & 20

It's hard to find good value for this year's Brownlow, but the Downlow team has found two players from each of these markets that's worth a dabble.

www.downlowonthebrownlow.com.au

So called 'value' tips from the MROSE gang (I have 0 affiliation with these guys don't roast me )

Poor blokes trying to find 'value' in markets that offered loads of value for 20+ weeks prior to when they're trying to find it.

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Poor blokes trying to find 'value' in markets that offered loads of value for 20+ weeks prior to when they're trying to find it.

We were getting on Tom Mitchell for top 10 at $3+ when our predictors had him hitting the 21 vote mark..... These guys are trying to squeeze him in for a top 5 spot at $3.50.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Group C. Confident buddy or fyfe win this. Fyfe 8.50 and bud 2.60. I know they were higher but fyfe crazy odds

 

[LIONS15v]

I'm staying away (for now) but are steele and walsh locks for top 5/10 respectively?

Just hesitant of them being on teams with losing records.. and walsh isnt a proven poller

How many of their wins do we think they each will poll a 3?

 

[Billionaire Panda]

I'm staying away (for now) but are steele and walsh locks for top 5/10 respectively?

Just hesitant of them being on teams with losing records.. and walsh isnt a proven poller

How many of their wins do we think they each will poll a 3?

For Steele, I've got him around 22 votes in Saints wins. Then 4 games they lost by under 3 goals where he was very good (R2, 11, 12, 18). Chance for a minor in 3 others.

 

[Prochard123]

$7 is a great price.............

Group C. Confident buddy or fyfe win this. Fyfe 8.50 and bud 2.60. I know they were higher but fyfe crazy odds

What do you guys have Fyfe on?

I have him on 9, tied with Heeney on 9, followed by Buddy on 8.

 

[botswana42]

What do you guys have Fyfe on?

I have him on 9, tied with Heeney on 9, followed by Buddy on 8.

Franklin 10
Heeney 9
Fyfe 8
v happy with my 15s. also backed fyfe

 

[Billionaire Panda]

What do you guys have Fyfe on?

I have him on 9, tied with Heeney on 9, followed by Buddy on 8.

Have him in the 10-12 range so slightly overpolling. Thought his Round 4 - Round 10 was really good but people kept gravitating toward Mundy coz Fyfe couldn't hit a barn door with a banana. (2 goals 14 behinds in that period)

 

[Crownlow]

Hey guys
Thinking of smacking a few 3 vote getters bets. Please let me know some guarantees with value. Happy to take $2 you can multi these on PointsBet apparently ??

Geez you had me excited! Unfortunately doesn't let you multi them yet

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Geez you had me excited! Unfortunately doesn't let you multi them yet

Really? Seemed to be working

 

[Sausage Legs]

What do you guys have Fyfe on?

I have him on 9, tied with Heeney on 9, followed by Buddy on 8.

10

 

[NYRB]

What do you guys have Fyfe on?

I have him on 9, tied with Heeney on 9, followed by Buddy on 8.

my count has Fyfe higher than a lot of others, just feel like he has a knack of picking up votes and catching the umps eye and is a proven poll gettor.

 

[Tigers04]

Geez you had me excited! Unfortunately doesn't let you multi them yet

I’d be surprised if they let you multi them tbh

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

What do you guys have Fyfe on?

I have him on 9, tied with Heeney on 9, followed by Buddy on 8.

Heeney 13 Fyfe 11 Buddy 7

 

[The_Steadier]

Just an observation.

I'm very surprised that given the amount of blood sweat and tears that goes into so many counts and statistical models I've never come across any that attempt to account for (what appears to me) a pretty crucial and obvious variable- the umps of each game.

 

[botswana42]

Just an observation.

I'm very surprised that given the amount of blood sweat and tears that goes into so many counts and statistical models I've never come across any that attempt to account for (what appears to me) a pretty crucial and obvious variable- the umps of each game.

100%, always thought this... would be utterly fascinating, we can't forget it's human decision making behind it all

 

[EFL Boy]

100%, always thought this... would be utterly fascinating, we can't forget it's human decision making behind it all

Fairly sure NYRB did some data-crunching on umps giving votes to certain players last year? Could be wrong on who it was, but fairly certain it was him.

 

[NonPhixion]

Just an observation.

I'm very surprised that given the amount of blood sweat and tears that goes into so many counts and statistical models I've never come across any that attempt to account for (what appears to me) a pretty crucial and obvious variable- the umps of each game.

NYRB did this last year - were some really interesting results

good point you raise

 

[Prochard123]

NYRB did this last year - were some really interesting results

good point you raise

Do you have a link by any chance?

 

[Michael Scarn]

That sort of analysis, from memory, is always skewed because of the amount of games that Margetts etc do in WA.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Rd 15 bris geelong. Zorks was solid but,
Daniher on pbet kicked 4 @34s
Lyons on 365 a snag and leading contested possessions @51s
Odds too high, someone do something about it for me

 

[EFL Boy]

Do you have a link by any chance?

It's in the Brownlow thread from last year, you'll have to go digging.

 

[Prochard123]

Just finished all the Port games.

Actively marked all of Wines games harshly and didn't attribute votes unless I felt he absolutely deserved it. Probably was just slightly on the lenient side for Boak, but I ended with:

Wines - 28
Boak - 20

I felt that BYB and to a lesser extent Betfair were way too optimistic with both of Wines and Boak's polling, for a detailed breakdown:

	Opponent	3​	2​	1​		Wines Total	Boak Total
Round 1	North Melbourne	Boak	Fantasia	Stephenson		0​	3​
Round 2	Essendon	Butters	Wines	Houston		2​	3​
Round 3	West Coast	Shuey	Gaff	Naitanui		2​	3​
Round 4	Richmond	Lambert	Boak	Wines		3​	5​
Round 5	Cartlon	Amon	Wines	Walsh		5​	5​
Round 6	St Kilda	Wines	Amon	Houston		8​	5​
Round 7	Brisbane	Mccluggage	Cameron	Wines		9​	5​
Round 8	Adelaide	Boak	Amon	Laird		9​	8​
Round 9	Western Bulldogs	Liberatore	Bontempelli	Naughton		9​	8​
Round 10	Port Adelaide	Grundy	Moore	Adams		9​	8​
Round 11	Fremantle	Wines	Amon	Boak		12​	9​
Round 12
Round 13	Geelong	Cameron	Hawkins	Rozee		12​	9​
Round 14	Gold Coast	Wines	Amon	Drew		15​	9​
Round 15	Sydney	Dixon	Boak	Parker		15​	11​
Round 16	Hawthorn	Wines	Boak	Amon		18​	13​
Round 17	Melbourne	Petracca	Oliver	Mcdonald		18​	13​
Round 18	St Kilda	Wines	Steele	Amon		21​	13​
Round 19	Collingwood	Drew	Wines	Boak		23​	14​
Round 20	GWS	Amon	Wines	Dixon		25​	14​
Round 21	Adelaide	Allir Allir	Drew	Wines		26​	14​
Round 22	Carlton	Boak	Allir Allir	Amon		26​	17​
Round 23	Western Bulldogs	Boak	Wines	Gray		28​	20​

 

[NYRB]

Just finished all the Port games.

Actively marked all of Wines harshly and didn't attribute votes unless I felt he absolutely deserved it. Probably was just slightly on the lenient side for Boak, but I ended with:

Wines - 28
Boak - 20

Boak has 6 games from Sportsbet where he is odds on favourite to poll 3 votes. That is close to 18 votes there for him from my side. (for 6 games) rounds 1,4,8,15,22,23

Think he goes a bit past 20 ......

 

[Prochard123]

Boak has 6 games from Sportsbet where he is odds on favourite to poll 3 votes. That is close to 18 votes there for him from my side. (for 6 games) rounds 1,4,8,15,22,23

Think he goes a bit past 20 ......

I have him to poll 3 votes in 1, 8, 22, 23. And in the other 2 games I gave him 2 votes each.

I think Lambert in round 4 and Dixon in round 15 were highly impactful in moments that mattered, and a lot of their contribution in crucial periods weren't accurately reflected by the stat sheet.

He's probably expected to poll in 8-10 games, to give him 3 votes in close to 75% (6 games) of the matches I don't think is realistic.