AFL 2022 AFL Round 15

[balmainforever]

POSTING OF BETS AND RESULTS AFTER THE FACT WILL NOT BE TOLERATED ANYMORE!!
ANYONE WHO DOES IT WILL BE GIVEN A HOLIDAY.

CONSIDER THIS EVERYONE'S FINAL WARNING!!!!!!

 

[BloodRet]

i kind of agree with this. Wouldnt be too hard to get a mate or family member to set up an account and ask them to doing something a bit dodgy. There is a price to everything in life as the saying goes- no matter how well paid the AFL players are.

In cricket they call it 'spot-fixing' eg batting slowly in certain overs, bowlers decides to bowl pure filth in certain overs etc It would be pretty tough to catch out.

Yeah and that too. Players telling their mate/relative to get on them for x goals, possibly another teammate in the side who's aware of it too. Wouldn't be too many in the league who would risk all that though, but money can make people do crazy things. Corruption in Australian codes wouldn't happen nearly as much as some dodgy, less privileged countries.

 

[Jugada]

Definitely wouldn't be any cases of bookmakers in this country like Sportsbet paying off someone to not get 20 touches. The risk vs reward isn't even close to being there. As for Joey half back flank playing on a minimum contract (or an umpire) it's a lot more reasonable to think they could try to get a collect by themselves. But given the average IQ of a footy player I don't have a lot of confidence in any of them actually being able to pull something like that off without being caught

 

[Its not the coach]

Yeah and that too. Players telling their mate/relative to get on them for x goals, possibly another teammate in the side who's aware of it too. Wouldn't be too many in the league who would risk all that though, but money can make people do crazy things. Corruption in Australian codes wouldn't happen nearly as much as some dodgy, less privileged countries.

Players getting together and making sure someone getting so many goals or disposals would happen for sure, I've got no doubt about it.
In the past before player props got big it was more about margins and results.

 

[BloodRet]

Players getting together and making sure someone getting so many goals or disposals would happen for sure, I've got no doubt about it.
In the past before player props got big it was more about margins and results.

If we got the dude as well then that suits me

 

[Its not the coach]

Yeah and that too. Players telling their mate/relative to get on them for x goals, possibly another teammate in the side who's aware of it too. Wouldn't be too many in the league who would risk all that though, but money can make people do crazy things. Corruption in Australian codes wouldn't happen nearly as much as some dodgy, less privileged countries.

And more likely to happen in nothing matches, I mean miss matches, Dead rubbers.

 

[Its not the coach]

If we got the dude as well then that suits me

Hahaha

 

[Its not the coach]

If we got the dude as well then that suits me

Just don't wonna have the dude that gives off to the other campaigner in the goal square

 

[BloodRet]

Just don't wonna have the dude that gives off to the other campaigner in the goal square

LOL word

 

[NYRB]

And more likely to happen in nothing matches, I mean miss matches, Dead rubbers.

Would be definitely something to keep in mind for sure.

Players getting together and making sure someone getting so many goals or disposals would happen for sure, I've got no doubt about it.
In the past before player props got big it was more about margins and results.

Very easy for Player A - eg Under 22.5 Disposals multi with another sport , so what you said is correct. Even with 1 right leg at odds of $2.00, thats a 100% boost right there. And in sport or AFL its much more easier to underperform to move odds in your favour, rather than to overperform in matches. Agree with what you said about 'dead rubbers', seen it a fair bit in soccer , with not much on the line, motivation being a huge factor.

People sometimes underestimate how important 1 leg is to an accumulator. Huge difference in knowing that you have 1 leg in the bank, rather than 'hoping' you had 1 leg in the bank.

Someone mentioned on this forum earlier in the year, if bookies offered fractional odds on all Same Game Multis/Multis to alot of punters in Australia, most would go broke. (or something along the lines). Kind of understood where they were coming from. Some will just see "big odds" = must have some interest on it. i guess thats where breaking each leg down is important..........

 

[BloodRet]

OK sure how are they going to fix a 10 leg multi, to avoid a 300k payout you reckon? Gotta pay those 10 players a portion of what 250k, to make it worthwhile profit wise, so each player is getting 25k each...just accept you made a foolish statement to begin with, don't double down.

Nah you're right though would be pretty impossible to fix a 10 leg multi like that. That was a silly example upon reflection

 

[Gavin Excell]

Essendon

the gift that keeps on giving

Proving the age old football punting adage - never take a short price on a poor team

 

[FrankGrimes]

Nah you're right though would be pretty impossible to fix a 10 leg multi like that. That was a silly example upon reflection

Thanks god you’ve come to your senses blood, 10 players for example, 5 tell their mates cause their dumb afl players and it’s all over, we seems “mates” share the players doing coke

 

[ShaunWDT]

Rohan 2+ $3.30, think he can take advantage when they zone off to take care of Hawkins and Cameron.

 

[Hellboy101]

Hewitt under 28.5
Kennedy under 23.5
Fisher under 17.5
Brodie under 26.5
All @1.88 PB for 2 units each
Small play as a multi @12.6

Also Fyfe 20+, Taberner 2+, Freo win @3.75

 

[jikost]

Dylan Stephens

15

Dylan Stephens

Age

24

Ht

184cm

Wt

80kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.3

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

3.3

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.7

4star

CL

0.0

1star

D

10.3

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

3.3

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.7

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

10.3

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

3.3

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.7

4star

CL

0.0

1star

15+ @ $2.25 tab - Back in the team for the first time since round 3. Posting big numbers in the VFL since then including a 37 disposal game 3 weeks ago.

 

[EFL Boy]

All on TAB:

Menegola (2.1 last week in first game back)
AGS $2.20
2+ $8

Edwards (1.1, 0.1, 2.1, 1.1 in previous 4 games)
AGS $2.40
2+ $9

$4.90
Menegola/Edwards AGS

$41
Menegola 2+/Edwards 2+

 

[Ohh Ok]

Been a tricky start to round 15 so far. Some tidy spot for today that I’m pretty keen on. Big bounce back day coming

2.5u - Brodie under 26.5 disposals - $1.87 - 365
Plays quite a low % of TOG, with Fyfe inserted I’m back into the mix coupled with the Blues giving up the least disposals and second least contested disposals, it should be a tough day out for him. Has gone under in 7/13 this year so with a few things against him it stacks up well.

3u - Saad over 20.5 disposals - $1.83 - PointsBet
3u - Newman 20+ disposals - $1.75 - TAB/Dabble/SB
3u - Docherty over 27.5 disposals - $1.74 - TopSport
Saad is 8/13, Newman is 9/13, Docherty is 9/13. These three should be able to find extra ball today as Freo have been setting up behind the ball all year. All three players had success on this number in round 6 vs Freo.

2.5u - Vlaustin 20+ disposals - $1.70 - TAB/SB
Back to him again. Covered in 7/8 games now, another numbers play.

2.5u - Guthrie over 102.5 fantasy points - $1.85 - Ladbrokes
Disposal count hasn’t been ultra consistent this year so going at him for fantasy points as he has still been tackling a lot. Tigers a great fantasy match up and has hit some form with a last four of 114, 126, 98, 126. Had 117 and 139 on the Tigers last year.

3u - Seb Ross under 24.5 disposals - $1.88 - Ladbrokes
3u - Gresham under 24.5 disposals - $1.87 - 365
With Steele back into the side and Jones building fitness, both of these guys should be pushed out of the midfield and into roles either up forward or on the outside. The Swans have been ultra tough for opposition players to rack up the touches all year making this an ideal spot to take both players on the unders.

3u - Parker 25+ disposals - $2.03 - SB
Took a while to get going this year but since round 5 he’s gone over in 6/9 games. A line just set too low, was 17/23 last season including games of 27 and 30 vs the Saints

 

[NYRB]

Sportsbets Algorithm for Disposal Markets for Unders/Overs if looking to do Same game Multis today for Freo v Carlton:




Margin for that 5th leg is 52.29% margin

2 Legs in SGM 21.57% Margin
3 Legs in SGM 34.15% Margin
4 Legs in SGM 45.24% Margin
5 Legs in SGM 52.29% Margin

You have more chance of winning on Roulette (0-00 , zero double-zero) than winning a SGM at Sportsbet with 2+ legs or more. ( I manually entered all the combinations from Sportsbets by clicking each outcome)

In fact, you would have a better chance of winning in Roulette if there were three Green Zeroes eg 0, 00, 000 than winning a SGM at Sportsbet with 2+ legs or more. (for those lines on Disposals with Unders/Overs at Sportsbet margins)

And yes I love my Roulette!

Again Good luck to anyone doing those 50:50 line bets today especially in a SGM at Sportsbet.

 

[Its not the coach]

Bonus Bet multi
Durdin ATG
Schultz ATG

Close ATG
Martin ATG
Rohan ATG

Membrey 2+
Butler ATG @32.69 SB

Same gamer
McKay 2+G
Durdin ATG
Fisher ATG
Tabernar 2+
Schultz ATG
Newnes 15+d @10 SB

Same gamer
Membrey 2+
Butler ATG
McDonald ATG
Papley ATG
Crouch 25+d 9.25 SB

Rachele 2+
Curtis 2+
Thomas 20+d
Berry 20+d @63 SB

 

[natooo]

Freo line -5.5, under 163.5 points and saad 20+ $5.51 ts

 

[Fitzey]

Silvagni AGS
Frederick AGS
Lobb 2 +
Curnow 2+

$5 SB

 

[NYRB]

Less concentration about those 'lotto' 10+ legs and something that may have a chance:



216 and 211 punters are on these.

Multi 1 to come through needs too many variables to come through, probably need a high stoppage game and a game where forwards take alot of shot on goals for it to come a chance. Personally think : Walsh, Brayshaw and Cripps go the over on those lines.

Multi 2 has a chance of coming through today. Players will want to get on the board to mark the 1000th game at Docklands stadium. What better way then to get on the scoreboard?

 

[fpm84]

Silvagni AGS
Frederick AGS
Lobb 2 +
Curnow 2+

$5 SB

Isn’t JSOS playing down back today? Thought that was reported during the week.

 

[Fitzey]

Isn’t JSOS playing down back today? Thought that was reported during the week.

I must have missed that, Makes sense though. Thanks

 

[Areyoufireal]

J Honey listed fwd pocket, kicked 4 last week in VFL and last AFL season kicked 2 in 3/5 games.
2/3/4/5 @ 4.70/15/67/251