AFL 2022 AFL Round 17

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Isaac Smith has scored a goal in 2 of his last 3 games… playing game 250 tomorrow night.

$2.25 AGS / $9.50 2+ at PB.
 

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Top sports first goal special again. Price back to 6. Seem to have a hard on for Rhylee West for some reason

 
Guthrie over 104.5 fantasy, has gone 126, 111, 121 past 3 and is tackling 6-10 times to boost his scores.. tough matchup vs Dees but should be in the action and high time on ground, Dangerfield and Selwood back doesn't really worry me
 
Also taking over 152.5, Geelong have surely learnt now their best way to win vs the elite teams is to back themselves in and not let May/Lever get set down there.... I expect a similar score to GEELONG/RICHMOND 89-86 maybe a tad lower due to possible dewy/cold night conditions as opposed to twilight, but both teams have such talent I feel this will go over the rather low 152.5 at pointsbet with the overnight rain not expected until 10-11pm at the earliest

Last year it went 81-77 in a night match but Geelong basically shut down in final qtr and look better attacking wise at this point compared to last year
 
1u Dangerfield 25+@$3.50 TAB
1u Dangerfield 30+@$11 B365

This is not based on any statistical data but rather a feeling that Danger should get up for this game and the price seems overs. Had an easy hit out first up against North last week and should be better for the run. No need for him to play forward for any meaningful amount of time in this current Cats setup.
 
Anyone have any thoughts on the totals? Do any totals look a bit low or high?

Geel v Melb 160.5
Syd v WB 158.5
Coll v NM 165.5
GC v Rich 166.5
St Kilda v Freo 158.5
Port v GWS 168.5
Bris v Ess 178.5 (opened 176.5)
Hawks v Adel 172.5 (opened 170.5)
West Coast v Carl 169.5 (opened 168.5)
Syd v Dogs ave 166/176 (Like the over)
Port v GWS ave 150/170 (Like the under)

On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
1u Dangerfield 25+@$3.50 TAB
1u Dangerfield 30+@$11 B365

This is not based on any statistical data but rather a feeling that Danger should get up for this game and the price seems overs. Had an easy hit out first up against North last week and should be better for the run. No need for him to play forward for any meaningful amount of time in this current Cats setup.
yeh his fantasy line is around 78 79 too.. could clear by 3/4 time if he plays decent midfield and gets a sniff, totals edging up now everywhere to 154.5... good signs I guess lol
 

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Jezza named in the centre and he's been prolific and taking alot of marks (18, 19, 16, 30 disposals respectively).

He's priced at $2.25 for 20+ and $6 for 25+.
 
Jezza named in the centre and he's been prolific and taking alot of marks (18, 19, 16, 30 disposals respectively).

He's priced at $2.25 for 20+ and $6 for 25+.
$2.25 for something he’s done 2/15 this year and 1/15 last year doesn’t seem like great value, especially against Melbourne. Would probably hold off myself unless I could be certain he was playing in the guts which I don’t see why he would for more than a brief cameo
 
Preempting Parish missing with his troublesome calf here but Caldwell 20+ @ $2.25 (SB) seems value. Cleared in 8/14 this year but his CBA's were well up when Parish last missed with 23 and 20 in those two games, plus had 23 twice earlier in the year in games Merrett missed.

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Zach Tuohy a good multi stuffer. 27 disposals last week came through for me. Without Tom Stewart again he’ll be a prime mover out of the backline
 
Am I missing something? I know Melbourne’s defence is strong and could possibly be showers but jezza 3/4 3.05/6.50 Tomahawk 3/4 3.30/7.25 And also got fritsch 3/4 2.93/5.90 TS
 
The punters have spoken for Geelong v Melbourne tonight 2,683 in the house for the 1st one on Sportsbet:

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Going to be a finals like game. See it being a high disposal game . Each leg there being roughly around $1.25 per leg. Which is the risky one there? Im going to have a say and reckon Jordon to get 20+ Disposals is no shoe-in

2nd one, I reckon Ben Brown is the risky leg there at around average of $1.63 per leg.


Very rarely do the 'popular SGM' come through.

Nathan Brown is on a hot streak of 2 SGM's in a row right. Tonight he has gone for:

Geelong Win, Petracca 25+ Disposals, Oliver 30+ Disposals, Close Anytime goalscorer @ $5.50, which for some reason I think has a chance of coming through.

Also for some reason, I can't seem to be able to load : R Studio Cloud, Ladbrokes website from my university computer, also cant logon to PointsBet at the same time. (Can access odds on my mobile phone at the moment, which isnt convenient )
 
Wowsers Logan McDonald omitted for this week. Might not be a bad loss for Swans, as he plays the SCG not that well
would that be a concern for Sydney like every time i see the man play at the SCG he is honestly in the worst 5 on the field but when he plays on the G or perth stadiums he usually does decent
 
would that be a concern for Sydney like every time i see the man play at the SCG he is honestly in the worst 5 on the field but when he plays on the G or perth stadiums he usually does decent
Likes space scg is too small for him especially with buddy in the team.
Once buddy goes he will like it more I reckon
 
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