AFL 2022 AFL Round 19

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Johanpetro said:
View attachment 1453032

Anyone game enough for this 🤮. I’d probably need 100-1 odds to think about it
Click to expand...

dontlimitme said:
that should be like 500000000 to 1
Click to expand...
its-a-trap-star-wars.gif
 
AFL Record 2022
P/L: +40.69 units
ROI: 102.2%

Finally updated the tracking for the season and it’s been a bit of an eye opener. This season so far has been one of the toughest seasons I’ve had since really tracking my AFL bets closely. Still up for the season by way off where I actually expect myself to be. Has given me some time to look into different bet types and work out what needs adjusting to ensure a strong finish to 2022.

Anyways, firing off some action for this round now. Some strong spots in play.

Richmond vs Fremantle
2u - Fremantle +1.5 - $2 - Ladbrokes
Freo have rightfully been backed into favouritism for this one. At Marvel this season have had a loss to Carlton and wins vs Essendon and the Saints and other than Lobb are full strength for this one. They regain Pearce for this one who has been mentioned during the week as their most important player who is crucial for their defensive structure and the obvious match up for Riewoldt. We get Serong and Brayshaw off the back of their most quiet performances of the year against a side that doesn’t tag and we can expect a big rebound from these two. Also expecting a hungry performance from Fyfe who was also quiet and will be edging for a finals like game. Richmond on the other hand probably view this one as a bit of an away game too with Hardwick famously stating that his players dislike the travel earlier in the year. Flicking back through games their record isn’t nearly as good at this ground as the MCG. They’re missing a serious of key players Lynch, Dusty, Lambert. Soldo was listed as 1-2 weeks but was rushed back? As a result of lack of personnel last week, players were moved from their best positions resulting in a lesser performance from these players. Freo heading in the better direction heading into this one and happy to be on.

2u - Fyfe 20+ disposals - $1.85 - PointsBet
Load has slowly been increasing for Fyfe with him up to 45% of CBAs on the weekend. Had a quiet game only amassing 15 disposals against a tough Sydney side. Will be looking to bounce back from that one with a strong performance tonight. Showed evidence of his rank building two weeks ago with a 16 disposal second half against the Saints at the same venue as tonight.

2u - Schultz 2+ goals - $2.20 - TopSport
0.5u - Schultz 3+ goals - $4.70 - TopSport
With Grimes, Tarrant and Miller in the lineup for Richmond, this means Taberner is going to likely be well held tonight. I think this means Richmond’s defence is going to be a bit tall at points tonight and that Freo’s second highest average goals per game player is going to have to get to work. Has managed 2+ goals in 9/16 games this season and 3+ in 3/16.

2.5u - Edwards AGS - $1.80 - 365
Has been playing forward as evidenced by at least one goal in 6 of his last 8 games and almost no CBAs.

North Melbourne vs Hawthorn
2.75u - Moore over 97.5 fantasy - $1.87 - PointsBet
1.75u - Moore 110+ fantasy - $2.80 - Dabble/PointsBet
0.5u - Moore 120+ fantasy - $4.75 - PointsBet
Has gone to the third most CBAs of any Hawks player in the last two weeks. This has resulted in scores of 129 and 112. Now comes up against North who have given up the most fantasy points over the course of the season and we could see a big score coming for Moore.

Sydney vs Adelaide
2.5u - Lloyd over 24.5 disposals - $2.15 - TopSport
Lloyd has a ridiculous strike rate at the SCG having cleared this number 5/8 this year with those three losses being 24, last year he cleared in 8/8 games there. Should be a decent match up with Adelaide being slack on the defensive accumulators in recent weeks.

Brisbane vs Gold Coast
3u - Robinson AGS - $2.15 - 365
1u - Robinson 2+ goals - $6.50 - PointsBet
0.5u - Robinson 3+ goals - $22 - TopSport
With Zorko, Berry, Mathieson, McCluggage, Neale, Bailey, Lyons and Rayner all now in the side Robinson should head back into the forward line into a spot that saw him kicking 5 goals from 3 games, including 2 bags of 2. Definitely doesn’t shy away from having a shot at goal, and with Brisbane almost back at full strength we could be in for another high scoring Q clash.

2.5u - Farrar 15+ disposals - $2.30 - 365
Odds are a bit skewed due to including 2 injury affected games. Excluding those he’s 4/7 for the season. In another one of those losses conditions were wet, and not suited to him coming off half back. Although I expect Lukosius to take most of the kick ins, during the year when players have missed, Farrar has gotten involved in the kick ins. In what looks to be a high scoring game, we can expect him to pick up a few. Expecting him to get on some extra ball use with Markov and Bowes both getting dropped and the long list of other half backers also absent for the Suns.

Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne
3u - Ben Brown 2+ goals - $1.79 - TopSport
1.25u - Ben Brown 3+ goals - $3.40 - TopSport
0.5u - Ben Brown 4+ goals - $7.50 - TopSport
0.25u - Ben Brown 5+ goals - $20 - TopSport
Has been a bit of an up and down year for Brown where he has battled for form in patches. Has looked to regain some form with a run of 8.8 in his last five games. I’m super keen on this match up though, as we often see the key forwards go well on the Dogs. Since 2021 these sides have met 3 times, in these games Brown has kicked 2.2, 3.2, and 3.3. Will take some confidence into this one knowing that’s he’s managed multiples on them in each of these recent match ups. Love the fact that this one is at Marvel.

Carlton vs GWS
2u - Carlton -30.5 - $2 - Ladbrokes
Big line but crucial that Carlton get the win here. GWS a bit bruised and battered missing a bunch of their big names players whilst Carlton nearing back to full strength, regaining McGovern is massive for structure and I think his absence has been massively over sighted.

4u - Cerra 25+ disposals - $2 - Dabble
1u - Cerra 30+ disposals - $6 - TAB
Have to play the Dabble bet as a SGM. This season when one of the midfield has missed for Carlton Cerra has taken the opportunity to rack it up. He has collected 30, 32, 32, 26, 27. The last two being in games with Hewett missing as he is this weekend.

West Coast vs St Kilda
2.5u - Marshall 110+ fantasy - $2.10 - PointsBet
1.5u - Marshall 120+ fantasy - $3.50 - PointsBet
1u - Marshall 130+ fantasy - $6 - PointsBet
Marshall averages 78 in 2021 with Ryder and 99.8 (5 games) without him. In 2021 he went at 77 with and 103 (6 games) without. Although these totals don’t look amazing compared to his averages, Marshall has a Natanui-less West Coast to feast on, when Natanui has been out the side solo rucks (at least 2 thirds of CBAs) have smashed their season averages: Reeves +24, English +26, Stanley +7, Flynn +39, Hayes +21, Ladhams +44. O’Brien who’s the exception was dropped for poor form the week after playing West Coast. Expecting to see Marshall see upward of 80% of CBAs and spend large amounts of time around the ball.
 
Ohh Ok said:
AFL Record 2022
P/L: +40.69 units
ROI: 102.2%

Finally updated the tracking for the season and it’s been a bit of an eye opener. This season so far has been one of the toughest seasons I’ve had since really tracking my AFL bets closely. Still up for the season by way off where I actually expect myself to be. Has given me some time to look into different bet types and work out what needs adjusting to ensure a strong finish to 2022.

Anyways, firing off some action for this round now. Some strong spots in play.

Richmond vs Fremantle
2u - Fremantle +1.5 - $2 - Ladbrokes
Freo have rightfully been backed into favouritism for this one. At Marvel this season have had a loss to Carlton and wins vs Essendon and the Saints and other than Lobb are full strength for this one. They regain Pearce for this one who has been mentioned during the week as their most important player who is crucial for their defensive structure and the obvious match up for Riewoldt. We get Serong and Brayshaw off the back of their most quiet performances of the year against a side that doesn’t tag and we can expect a big rebound from these two. Also expecting a hungry performance from Fyfe who was also quiet and will be edging for a finals like game. Richmond on the other hand probably view this one as a bit of an away game too with Hardwick famously stating that his players dislike the travel earlier in the year. Flicking back through games their record isn’t nearly as good at this ground as the MCG. They’re missing a serious of key players Lynch, Dusty, Lambert. Soldo was listed as 1-2 weeks but was rushed back? As a result of lack of personnel last week, players were moved from their best positions resulting in a lesser performance from these players. Freo heading in the better direction heading into this one and happy to be on.

2u - Fyfe 20+ disposals - $1.85 - PointsBet
Load has slowly been increasing for Fyfe with him up to 45% of CBAs on the weekend. Had a quiet game only amassing 15 disposals against a tough Sydney side. Will be looking to bounce back from that one with a strong performance tonight. Showed evidence of his rank building two weeks ago with a 16 disposal second half against the Saints at the same venue as tonight.

2u - Schultz 2+ goals - $2.20 - TopSport
0.5u - Schultz 3+ goals - $4.70 - TopSport
With Grimes, Tarrant and Miller in the lineup for Richmond, this means Taberner is going to likely be well held tonight. I think this means Richmond’s defence is going to be a bit tall at points tonight and that Freo’s second highest average goals per game player is going to have to get to work. Has managed 2+ goals in 9/16 games this season and 3+ in 3/16.

2.5u - Edwards AGS - $1.80 - 365
Has been playing forward as evidenced by at least one goal in 6 of his last 8 games and almost no CBAs.

North Melbourne vs Hawthorn
2.75u - Moore over 97.5 fantasy - $1.87 - PointsBet
1.75u - Moore 110+ fantasy - $2.80 - Dabble/PointsBet
0.5u - Moore 120+ fantasy - $4.75 - PointsBet
Has gone to the third most CBAs of any Hawks player in the last two weeks. This has resulted in scores of 129 and 112. Now comes up against North who have given up the most fantasy points over the course of the season and we could see a big score coming for Moore.

Sydney vs Adelaide
2.5u - Lloyd over 24.5 disposals - $2.15 - TopSport
Lloyd has a ridiculous strike rate at the SCG having cleared this number 5/8 this year with those three losses being 24, last year he cleared in 8/8 games there. Should be a decent match up with Adelaide being slack on the defensive accumulators in recent weeks.

Brisbane vs Gold Coast
3u - Robinson AGS - $2.15 - 365
1u - Robinson 2+ goals - $6.50 - PointsBet
0.5u - Robinson 3+ goals - $22 - TopSport
With Zorko, Berry, Mathieson, McCluggage, Neale, Bailey, Lyons and Rayner all now in the side Robinson should head back into the forward line into a spot that saw him kicking 5 goals from 3 games, including 2 bags of 2. Definitely doesn’t shy away from having a shot at goal, and with Brisbane almost back at full strength we could be in for another high scoring Q clash.

2.5u - Farrar 15+ disposals - $2.30 - 365
Odds are a bit skewed due to including 2 injury affected games. Excluding those he’s 4/7 for the season. In another one of those losses conditions were wet, and not suited to him coming off half back. Although I expect Lukosius to take most of the kick ins, during the year when players have missed, Farrar has gotten involved in the kick ins. In what looks to be a high scoring game, we can expect him to pick up a few. Expecting him to get on some extra ball use with Markov and Bowes both getting dropped and the long list of other half backers also absent for the Suns.

Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne
3u - Ben Brown 2+ goals - $1.79 - TopSport
1.25u - Ben Brown 3+ goals - $3.40 - TopSport
0.5u - Ben Brown 4+ goals - $7.50 - TopSport
0.25u - Ben Brown 5+ goals - $20 - TopSport
Has been a bit of an up and down year for Brown where he has battled for form in patches. Has looked to regain some form with a run of 8.8 in his last five games. I’m super keen on this match up though, as we often see the key forwards go well on the Dogs. Since 2021 these sides have met 3 times, in these games Brown has kicked 2.2, 3.2, and 3.3. Will take some confidence into this one knowing that’s he’s managed multiples on them in each of these recent match ups. Love the fact that this one is at Marvel.

Carlton vs GWS
2u - Carlton -30.5 - $2 - Ladbrokes
Big line but crucial that Carlton get the win here. GWS a bit bruised and battered missing a bunch of their big names players whilst Carlton nearing back to full strength, regaining McGovern is massive for structure and I think his absence has been massively over sighted.

4u - Cerra 25+ disposals - $2 - Dabble
1u - Cerra 30+ disposals - $6 - TAB
Have to play the Dabble bet as a SGM. This season when one of the midfield has missed for Carlton Cerra has taken the opportunity to rack it up. He has collected 30, 32, 32, 26, 27. The last two being in games with Hewett missing as he is this weekend.

West Coast vs St Kilda
2.5u - Marshall 110+ fantasy - $2.10 - PointsBet
1.5u - Marshall 120+ fantasy - $3.50 - PointsBet
1u - Marshall 130+ fantasy - $6 - PointsBet
Marshall averages 78 in 2021 with Ryder and 99.8 (5 games) without him. In 2021 he went at 77 with and 103 (6 games) without. Although these totals don’t look amazing compared to his averages, Marshall has a Natanui-less West Coast to feast on, when Natanui has been out the side solo rucks (at least 2 thirds of CBAs) have smashed their season averages: Reeves +24, English +26, Stanley +7, Flynn +39, Hayes +21, Ladhams +44. O’Brien who’s the exception was dropped for poor form the week after playing West Coast. Expecting to see Marshall see upward of 80% of CBAs and spend large amounts of time around the ball.
Click to expand...
AFL record 2022
P/L -500 units
Edwards 4+ @67
 

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2u - Freemantle Win @ $2.05
2u - Over 164.5 @ $1.90
2u - Schultz, Fred, Banfield AGS @ $3.01 (PB)
1u - Taberner, Schultz, Fred combine for 1 each qtr @ $3.60 (SB BYO)

Then a couple little bonus bets on each:
0.25u - Riewoldt, Bolton, Taberner, Schultz to kick 1st or 2nd each qtr @ $10
0.25u - Schultz 2+, Fred 2+, Banfield, Henry @ $12.75
0.25u - Banfield 3+ @ $9.50
0.25u - Banfield Top Goal Scorer @ $17
 
Taberner 4,5 @6.36, 16.71

2u Cumberland 2+ @2.10

Baker 2+ @4.75

Logue 2+ @3.50

Banfield 2+ @3.25

Edwards 2+ @5
 
Johanpetro said:
Nank the Tank train. Named FP and Saldo in ruck

1 goal $2.85
2 goals $14
3 goals $91 Bet365

Someone’s gotta be a target down there for the tigers. Hopefully Balta plays down back where he belongs
Click to expand...
Was just about to post this also, Dimma just said on Fox that Soldo will be playing more ruck and Nank alot down Forward

On SM-S908E using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
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