AFL 2022 AFL Round 23

[NYRB]

I wouldn't be touching the blues/pies game yet.
If Hawks beat dogs basically turns into a dead rubber for Carlton.
AFL will be hoping like hell that the dogs get up.

Its a good point that you make.

The Dogs v Hawks game with a 2 hour head start, the Blues may know their fate before the start of half time. If the Dogs do lose, one senses the Blues might take their foot off the gas a bit.

Its highly unlikely the Saints will win by whatever margin to overtake the Blues on percentage.

 

[NYRB]

And I hope for the Saints supporters and if the Saints are given a lifeline, Brett Ratten

Brett Ratten

Age

53

Ht

184cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.4

5star

K

12.1

4star

HB

10.3

5star

M

2.9

3star

T

3.0

5star

No current season stats available

D

26.4

5star

K

13.8

5star

HB

12.6

5star

M

3.4

4star

T

1.6

4star

for once decides to throw the kitchen sink in order to chase percentage. I highly doubt it , as the Saints haven't really shown much dare in chasing games over the last month so. Been pretty cagey, when the task was to rack up a win, when trailing during games. (Hence we have some really low scoring games involving them at the Dome)

 

[GROTTO]

Its a good point that you make.

The Dogs v Hawks game with a 2 hour head start, the Blues may know their fate before the start of half time. If the Dogs do lose, one senses the Blues might take their foot off the gas a bit.

Its highly unlikely the Saints will win by whatever margin to overtake the Blues on percentage.

Blues will rest players, nothing can be more surer. You would expect late changes.

 

[X_box_X]

Blues will rest players, nothing can be more surer. You would expect late changes.

Hawks lead by eight goals at HT.

Carlton make late changes to rest a few stars.

Dogs come back and roll the Hawks.

Imagine the outrage.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Edwards is not retiring this week.

Can see Bombers putting in a better effort too, Tigers have nothing to play for.

 

[dontlimitme]

Edwards is not retiring this week.

Can see Bombers putting in a better effort too, Tigers have nothing to play for.

FAKE RETIREMENTS DONT COUNT PEOPLE

 

[mac23]

Final round ‘teams with something to play for vs teams without’ multi…

Freo/Suns*/Tiges/Dogs/Swans
$5.28 SB Boosted

*Norf being the team in this match with something to play for which is retaining the first pick.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Shane Edwards just announced his retirement and while this week won't be his last game, it is against the rabble that is Essendon and he's at massive odds on PB again.

2+ $12
3+ $51

Those are mad odds even without the retirement. Well done.

Spewing I missed it because I checked PB earlier and they hadn't released goal odds yet.

 

[X_box_X]

For the Bulldogs to make finals, not only do they have to win and rely on Collingwood beating Carlton, but they also have to make up a total of 15 points to catch Carlton on percentage. I.e. a combined margin differential of +14 points in favour of the Bulldogs won't be enough.

I've laid the Bulldogs at $2.94 to make the top eight on BF. That's very good value.




The current lay odds of $3.15 are also good.

Why?

Bulldogs -13.5 pts is paying $1.76 on Topsport. Multiply those odds by Collingwood -0.5 pts at $2 and it gives you combined odds of $3.52.
If both of those legs clear by exactly one point (Bulldogs by 14 and Collingwood by 1), then the Bulldogs make the finals.

Bulldogs -12.5 pts is paying $1.72. Multiply those odds by Collingwood -0.5 pts and you get combined odds of $3.44.
If both of those legs clear by exactly one point (Bulldogs by 13 and Collingwood by 1), then Carlton make the finals.

I can use other examples of combined margins that won't be enough for the Bulldogs to finish in the top eight (I.e. Bulldogs -6.5 into Collingwood -6.5 at combined odds of $3.47) to illustrate this further, but so far the odds in this market are only reflecting the odds of both Collingwood and the Bulldogs winning. It isn't factoring in the Bulldogs also being required to make up a combined total of 15 points to pass Carlton on percentage.

The lay odds for the Bulldogs in this market should be around $3.50 - $3.60, and if you can lay for anything under that, currently that's +EV.

 

[dontlimitme]

For the Bulldogs to make finals, not only do they have to win and rely on Collingwood beating Carlton, but they also have to make up a total of 15 points to catch Carlton on percentage. I.e. a combined margin differential of +14 points in favour of the Bulldogs won't be enough.

I've laid the Bulldogs at $2.94 to make the top eight on BF. That's very good value.

View attachment 1480024


The current lay odds of $3.15 are also good.

Why?

Bulldogs -13.5 pts is paying $1.76 on Topsport. Multiply those odds by Collingwood -0.5 pts at $2 and it gives you combined odds of $3.52.
If both of those legs clear by exactly one point (Bulldogs by 14 and Collingwood by 1), then the Bulldogs make the finals.

Bulldogs -12.5 pts is paying $1.72. Multiply those odds by Collingwood -0.5 pts and you get combined odds of $3.44.
If both of those legs clear by exactly one point (Bulldogs by 13 and Collingwood by 1), then Carlton make the finals.

I can use other examples of combined margins that won't be enough for the Bulldogs to finish in the top eight (I.e. Bulldogs -6.5 into Collingwood -6.5 at combined odds of $3.47) to illustrate this further, but so far the odds in this market are only reflecting the odds of both Collingwood and the Bulldogs winning. It isn't factoring in the Bulldogs also being required to make up a combined total of 15 points to pass Carlton on percentage.

The lay odds for the Bulldogs in this market should be around $3.50 - $3.60, and if you can lay for anything under that, currently that's +EV.

 

[GROTTO]

Degens should aspire to know this much insight into betting and management of units.

 

[dontlimitme]

Degens should aspire to know this much insight into betting and management of units.

i'll kill myself before i ever start betting like that

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Anyone watch Bombers last weekend, how’d Stringer get to 22?

Paying $6.25 20+, $31 25+ @ SB

 

[GROTTO]

i'll kill myself before i ever start betting like that

Thats normal, most degens feel that way.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

For the Bulldogs to make finals, not only do they have to win and rely on Collingwood beating Carlton, but they also have to make up a total of 15 points to catch Carlton on percentage. I.e. a combined margin differential of +14 points in favour of the Bulldogs won't be enough.

I've laid the Bulldogs at $2.94 to make the top eight on BF. That's very good value.

View attachment 1480024


The current lay odds of $3.15 are also good.

Why?

Bulldogs -13.5 pts is paying $1.76 on Topsport. Multiply those odds by Collingwood -0.5 pts at $2 and it gives you combined odds of $3.52.
If both of those legs clear by exactly one point (Bulldogs by 14 and Collingwood by 1), then the Bulldogs make the finals.

Bulldogs -12.5 pts is paying $1.72. Multiply those odds by Collingwood -0.5 pts and you get combined odds of $3.44.
If both of those legs clear by exactly one point (Bulldogs by 13 and Collingwood by 1), then Carlton make the finals.

I can use other examples of combined margins that won't be enough for the Bulldogs to finish in the top eight (I.e. Bulldogs -6.5 into Collingwood -6.5 at combined odds of $3.47) to illustrate this further, but so far the odds in this market are only reflecting the odds of both Collingwood and the Bulldogs winning. It isn't factoring in the Bulldogs also being required to make up a combined total of 15 points to pass Carlton on percentage.

The lay odds for the Bulldogs in this market should be around $3.50 - $3.60, and if you can lay for anything under that, currently that's +EV.

Credit to you for the analysis and explanation, and also for the bet size.

Risking $660 for a $320 profit is a level above most of us here I would imagine, myself included.

 

[X_box_X]

I'm not a nerd, I'm highly skilled. If you think any differently, then you're a fool.

 

[dontlimitme]

I'm not a nerd, I'm highly skilled. If you think any differently, then you're a fool.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

With Lobb and Taberner out, pounding Griffin Logue

19

Griffin Logue

Age

26

Ht

193cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.8

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

5.4

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

1.0

3star

MG

115.4

2star

D

9.8

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

5.4

3star

M

2.4

3star

T

1.0

2star

MG

115.4

2star

D

9.8

3star

K

4.4

2star

HB

5.4

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

1.0

3star

MG

115.4

2star

on SB. Good odds 2-4.

 

[bulletride]

Anyone watch Bombers last weekend, how’d Stringer get to 22?

Paying $6.25 20+, $31 25+ @ SB

He definitely had a slightly different role, CBAs were well down (6% vs season avg 39%) and got most of his ball pushing up to a wing/HFF. Considering how ****ing awful we were we'll probably try something different this week but worth a go at those odds.

 

[The Brownlow Guru]

With Lobb and Taberner out, pounding Griffin Logue on SB. Good odds 2-4.

Lobb hasn't been ruled out yet.

 

[kicksome]

Any geelong fan think that with jeremy cameron

5

Jeremy Cameron

Age

31

Ht

196cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.5

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

2.6

5star

D

10.0

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

2.9

2star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.2

3star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.4

4star

G

2.0

5star

out that they might put dangerfield down forward a bit? considering its his 300th game as well.
2/3/4
$3.10/$9/$30

 

[fpm84]

Any geelong fan think that with jeremy cameron out that they might put dangerfield down forward a bit? considering its his 300th game as well.
2/3/4
$3.10/$9/$30

Dangerfield paying $81 for 5 at PB.

 

[kicksome]

Dangerfield paying $81 for 5 at PB.

$125 for 5 at bet365

 

[NYRB]

For the Bulldogs to make finals, not only do they have to win and rely on Collingwood beating Carlton, but they also have to make up a total of 15 points to catch Carlton on percentage. I.e. a combined margin differential of +14 points in favour of the Bulldogs won't be enough.

I've laid the Bulldogs at $2.94 to make the top eight on BF. That's very good value.

View attachment 1480024


The current lay odds of $3.15 are also good.

Why?

Bulldogs -13.5 pts is paying $1.76 on Topsport. Multiply those odds by Collingwood -0.5 pts at $2 and it gives you combined odds of $3.52.
If both of those legs clear by exactly one point (Bulldogs by 14 and Collingwood by 1), then the Bulldogs make the finals.

Bulldogs -12.5 pts is paying $1.72. Multiply those odds by Collingwood -0.5 pts and you get combined odds of $3.44.
If both of those legs clear by exactly one point (Bulldogs by 13 and Collingwood by 1), then Carlton make the finals.

I can use other examples of combined margins that won't be enough for the Bulldogs to finish in the top eight (I.e. Bulldogs -6.5 into Collingwood -6.5 at combined odds of $3.47) to illustrate this further, but so far the odds in this market are only reflecting the odds of both Collingwood and the Bulldogs winning. It isn't factoring in the Bulldogs also being required to make up a combined total of 15 points to pass Carlton on percentage.

The lay odds for the Bulldogs in this market should be around $3.50 - $3.60, and if you can lay for anything under that, currently that's +EV.

I Was just playing with some things on my calculator, which are possible I think going into the final day. I personally think Collingwood will beat Carlton but its a 50:50 game. There could be a hypothetical scenario where Carlton lose by 1 point, and Dogs win by 13, combined differential of 14 pts , which would allow Bulldogs to qualify. (refer to image below)


Was playing around with R Studio and Chose a fixed score on Hawthorn scoring exactly 82 points (as thats what their averaging around there this season) and Exactly 63 points , as thats the lowest score at Launceston in 2022.


The Bulldogs v Hawks game is a game earlier in the week I was thinking there would be plenty of goals but as the week goes on, can see it a being a game where Hawthorn may want to slow down the game and play a role as spoiler.

To be honest , I can actually see a scenario where the Bulldogs get a narrow win, Carlton looking to play 'damage limitation' football in order to protect their percentage during the game- if they hear the result of the earlier game. Carlton look to be a bit nervous in the last 5 minutes of the game at the MCG last Saturday night, and there is no reason why they wouldn't or couldn't be nervous again on Sunday with the season on the line. The Blues have more to lose than the Pies do and maybe the scoreboard pressure might get to them.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Any geelong fan think that with jeremy cameron out that they might put dangerfield down forward a bit? considering its his 300th game as well.
2/3/4
$3.10/$9/$30

Last match of the season, down at the Cattery, Eagles have nothing to gain, Cats nothing to lose...

...and it is Dangerfield's 300th?

3+ @ $11, 4+ @ $21, 5+ @ $81, all pb