AFL 2022 AFL Round 7

[NYRB]

which sites post fantasy lines on random players mainly???

PointsBet is the best bet. They do unders/overs, spreads for AFL Fantasy.

Betfair not enough liquidity to get a decent bet.

 

[NYRB]

Cross sport Multi:

Carlton v North Melbourne 28-30 Total Match Goals
Ayo Dosunmu 8+ Assists v Milwaukee Bucks in Game 5


Odds: $30

 

[Its not the coach]

Cross sport Multi:

Carlton v North Melbourne 28-30 Total Match Goals
Ayo Dosunmu 8+ Assists v Milwaukee Bucks in Game 5


Odds: $30

That Dosunmu 8+ Assists is a pretty big jump up from his average of 3.3, Im not a big NBA fan but is there any reason why you think he will get 8.

 

[NYRB]

That Dosunmu 8+ Assists is a pretty big jump up from his average of 3.3, Im not a big NBA fan but is there any reason why you think he will get 8.

probably no Zach Lavine, Caruso is doubtful as well. Lonzo Ball hasnt played all series.

And plus he will get minutes tonight.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

The bookies didnt adjust the 2+ goals etc for the higher totals to start the year. They were prices for 15x totals as per late last year... reason so many here cleaned up...

odds looked much more correct this week.... wont be betting as many 2+ etc now they have caught up... no point giving them action at poor odds.

This is the third year in a row where I have done well in Rds 1/2.

2020 I went full silly on the punt and blew all of the Rd 1/2 money and then some over the course of the rest of the season.

I ended the year down, well down. But my total turnover was through the roof.

I was betting like a mug and didn't even seem to care. It was a strange year in many ways.

That was my first year betting a lot.

Like many other people out there, I didn't have much else to do, being locked down and what have you.

Due to how much I was betting, I decided to use a spreadsheet and track things closely. It was eye-opening.

2021 I won a lot in Rds 1/2 and then lost most (but not all) of it over the rest of the season.

Still, it was overall a positive (profit) season.

And I learned some important lessons again (especially the importance of bankroll management).

I also began to accept that just because a person can win big early in the season, it doesn't mean they are a good punter.

It may just mean that there is value early in the season and not much thereafter.

2022, here we are, and I had a lovely Rd1/2 as expected. But I made sure I didn't go overboard from that point.

The last three weekends have all been red but not by anywhere near as much as Rds 1/2 were green.

I have now fully accepted that perhaps this is as good as it gets:

Clean up early and then either get out, or significantly reduce rd stakes.

My plan from now on is to spend the rest of this season punting here and there, not every match, maybe not even every round.

When I see what looks like a genuine outlier value market (e.g. Curtis goals this weekend), I'll bet a unit or three.

Occasionally I will also bet tiny amounts to make a game worth watching.

(Without the punt I wouldn't bother, I just don't care who wins or loses any more, even when North is playing)

And then next season, if I can do well in Rds 1/2 again, I will be very very confident that it is not just luck:

Rds 1/2 there really is value to be found.

Three years in a row is maybe coincidence, but four in a row, no, we are on to something here.

The bookies can't (or for whatever reason won't) keep track of player movements, practice matches, training reports, etc closely enough.

Value will slip through the cracks. There will be Racheles and Martins and Rosas every year, especially early.

We can pay close attention and spot these value markets.

As individuals and especially as a group. There's too many of us sharing tips.

I'm guessing that if I simply bet on Rds 1/2, cleaned up, and didn't give it back, year after year, eventually the books would ban me.

And I'm cool with that. They are (apparently) legally allowed to ban punters who keep winning.

The fact that sb and pb haven't banned me yet suggests to me that they still see me as a fish.

Well I guess we will find out in about 10 months when the circus rolls into town once again.

Because I'll be there, lurking in the shadows, watching the books closely, looking for the value goalkicker markets.

And when I find them, I will pounce, and then I will share my tips here with my friends on the large sherrin degen board.

When it's all said and done, maybe the real goal trains were the friends we made along the way

 

[langdon19]

Sydney Brisbane 161.5 (pbet, topsport/b365) looks a shade low.. Saturdays rain very unlikely to leak into late sunday for the twilight kickoff... conditions should be near perfect... its up to 164.5 tab, 163.5 neds.... thoughts??? Yes Brisbane and Sydney will heavily gameplan and they won't both probably be able to just go end to end all game through the centre like they try to do vs poor sides but still plenty of attacking weapons and skill to see this sail over... I Feel a lot would have to go wrong for this bet not to have a great chance of clearing eg real poor kicking at goal or a total high pressure contest in the vein of Dogs/Adelaide.. even that game still got to 125 in probably the worst game skill/attacking wise all season with adelaide scoring 8.15...I feel 161.5 is just too low with the floor of this bet being 145-150 if everything went wrong but the Ceiling being 190 to 200

Great summary, came here to post the same. Best total of the season I’d say. Have it capped at 175 and games seem to be either falling around my totals or flying over by 20 points. Look what briz did last week.

 

[The Brownlow Guru]

You can play 7/8th option, be in the right place at the right time and end up with a bag as you got less focus on you. If you’re getting 100 and 750 odds for 3, 4 you gotta take it. Ah Chee has played forward heaps in his career and with the heat maps of him playing forward once Lohmann went off, this definitely isn’t a shit tip.

Just feels so low percentage that you are probably donating your money. I mean those odds look about fair to me in all reality to kick 3 or 4. But hey good luck.

 

[Jonsyd1]

also do Neds still do the team vs team totals that you guys talked about early season eg Hawthorn to outscore Port or something like that?? I can't find it only found the highest/lowest scoring features

They have it on ladbrokes at the top of the afl section, you select teams from different games and it creates h2h markets

 

[kicksome]

Last time north played Carlton they won by 39 points and Nick Larkey kicked 7. Kicked 6 early on in the year. So it's time to have a nibble.
3+ $3.70
4+ $8.70
5+ $23

Perfect conditions under the roof

 

[anabac]

LOL neds have swans vs bris fav at 4.50 for lowest scoring match.. huh???? total is set at 163.5... ill def take some stk vs port at 6.00 given the weather, also do Neds still do the team vs team totals that you guys talked about early season eg Hawthorn to outscore Port or something like that?? I can't find it only found the highest/lowest scoring features

The weather in Cairns looks fine on Saturday??

 

[kicksome]

Hail Mary because he's playing West coast who are just awful.

Jack Graham. Has kicked 1 goal in each of his last 2 games, kicked 3 last year against the saints. Also has kicked 4 goals a couple times in his career. Just a smallish cup of coffee bet for me here.
2+ $11
3+ $51 (SGM trick)
4+ $251 (SGM trick)

 

[NYRB]

Hail Mary because he's playing West coast who are just awful.

Jack Graham. Has kicked 1 goal in each of his last 2 games, kicked 3 last year against the saints. Also has kicked 4 goals a couple times in his career. Just a smallish cup of coffee bet for me here.
2+ $11
3+ $51 (SGM trick)
4+ $251 (SGM trick)

Tailed

Dont forget he also kicked a Goal against Eagles last year

 

[demon_fanatic]

The weather in Cairns looks fine on Saturday??

yeh night match though... i'm sure it will get dewy

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Anyone else like someone like Short for a goal or two tomorrow night, WCE suck, but the Tigers suck as much. Just looking for a few outsiders that could kick a snag

 

[kicksome]

Hail Mary because he's playing West coast who are just awful.

Jack Graham. Has kicked 1 goal in each of his last 2 games, kicked 3 last year against the saints. Also has kicked 4 goals a couple times in his career. Just a smallish cup of coffee bet for me here.
2+ $11
3+ $51 (SGM trick)
4+ $251 (SGM trick)

Just looking for a few outsiders that could kick a snag

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Good enough for me.

Who decided to put this bludger of a game on Friday night...were they drunk?

 

[Its not the coach]

Anyone else like someone like Short for a goal or two tomorrow night, WCE suck, but the Tigers suck as much. Just looking for a few outsiders that could kick a snag

He did actually cross my mind, A bit like Brodie Smith, Known to cruise past and wack one from 60m out.

 

[Its not the coach]

Without doing any research, Was thinking the SCG being a short ground it should be good for midfielders getting a couple. Lachie Neill gets plenty of the ball and loves a goal.
1+2+3+@1.97,6.25,23 SB

 

[LukeParkerno1]

He did actually cross my mind, A bit like Brodie Smith, Known to cruise past and wack one from 60m out.

Yeah that’s my thoughts

 

[dontlimitme]

love wacking one from far out

 

[Its not the coach]

love wacking one from far out

Yep they sure do give it a whack haha

 

[Ohh Ok]

5u - West Coast +8.5 - $1.91 - 365
Line moving fast and in as much as -4.5 at some places. Will be likely hitting back at a middle on Ladbrokes with the $2 lines for a portion of this stake. West Coast getting a day extra break, good for some guys starting the season a little later, whilst most of this late starters are now 2-3 games into their season and really building into things now. It’s been announce that Cotchin and Tarrant won’t be making the trip to Perth which in my eyes is massive as they lose their captain and leader and also another tall pillar from the backline. With Grimes looking touch and go for selection and potentially missing, the defence is vulnerable with big men Kennedy and Darling posing a big threat to the Tigers back line. The tigers will be left with the decision to be vulnerable in defence or lose some of their offensive firepower moving swing man Balta into defence. McGovern and Gaff are both available for selection here and will be massive ins for the Eagles. With Ladbrokes offering the $2 lines and the money coming in for the Eagles, I’m happy to back at this line and feel safe about middling out at some point.

Sydney Brisbane 161.5 (pbet, topsport/b365) looks a shade low.. Saturdays rain very unlikely to leak into late sunday for the twilight kickoff... conditions should be near perfect... its up to 164.5 tab, 163.5 neds.... thoughts??? Yes Brisbane and Sydney will heavily gameplan and they won't both probably be able to just go end to end all game through the centre like they try to do vs poor sides but still plenty of attacking weapons and skill to see this sail over... I Feel a lot would have to go wrong for this bet not to have a great chance of clearing eg real poor kicking at goal or a total high pressure contest in the vein of Dogs/Adelaide.. even that game still got to 125 in probably the worst game skill/attacking wise all season with adelaide scoring 8.15...I feel 161.5 is just too low with the floor of this bet being 145-150 if everything went wrong but the Ceiling being 190 to 200

Great summary, came here to post the same. Best total of the season I’d say. Have it capped at 175 and games seem to be either falling around my totals or flying over by 20 points. Look what briz did last week.

Started looking at a few things and came up with this as a result of these posts.

4u - Both teams to score 70+ points - $1.88 - Ladbrokes
Both teams with elite forward lines and playing attacking footy. Totals were set for poor weather yet looks to now be clear come game time. Stats stack up well for this one. 4/4 teams have scored 70+ at the SCG in 2022. In 2021 18/22 teams scored 70+ at the SCG. Sydney averaging 99 pts for, Brisbane averaging 105 pts for, Sydney averaging 73 pts against, Brisbane averaging 74 pts against. Sydney 70+ in 5/6 in 2022 and 18/23 in 2021. Brisbane 70+ in 6/6 games and 20/24 in 2021. Sydney has conceded 70+ 4/6 in 2022 and 17/23 in 2021. Brisbane has conceded 70+ in 4/6 games in 2022 and 15/24 in 2021. Last year when these sides meant the score was Brisbane 94 vs Sydney 125

 

[IDIG]

I know everyone likes to do this with goal kickers but really liking it with possies for Witherden.

25/30/35 @ $2.05/$5/$19 (TAB)

Had 34 last week (23/27 before that) and comes up against Richmond who generally give up big numbers and they play at Optus which is even more kick to kick friendly.

He took 7 of 9 kick ins last week and played on from all 7. Hurn only took 2 so maybe he’s now preferred taker??

Richmond’s opponent’s numbers last 3

R6 - Brayshaw 25, Bowey 23, May 20 (Oliver 41, Langdon 30, ANB 27, Petracca 25)

R5 - Smith 28, Laird 26 (mostly in back half), Dawson 24 (Keays 31, Crouch 26)

R4 - Dale 31, Daniel 26 (Dunkley 37, Smith 36, Macrae 34, Bont 33)


Feels like 25+ is a very good chance and 30+ well well over the odds.

Is this a new type of train I can lose money on

 

[Ohh Ok]

5u - West Coast +8.5 - $1.91 - 365
Line moving fast and in as much as -4.5 at some places. Will be likely hitting back at a middle on Ladbrokes with the $2 lines for a portion of this stake. West Coast getting a day extra break, good for some guys starting the season a little later, whilst most of this late starters are now 2-3 games into their season and really building into things now. It’s been announce that Cotchin and Tarrant won’t be making the trip to Perth which in my eyes is massive as they lose their captain and leader and also another tall pillar from the backline. With Grimes looking touch and go for selection and potentially missing, the defence is vulnerable with big men Kennedy and Darling posing a big threat to the Tigers back line. The tigers will be left with the decision to be vulnerable in defence or lose some of their offensive firepower moving swing man Balta into defence. McGovern and Gaff are both available for selection here and will be massive ins for the Eagles. With Ladbrokes offering the $2 lines and the money coming in for the Eagles, I’m happy to back at this line and feel safe about middling out at some point.

3.5u - Richmond - 6.5 - $2 - Ladbrokes
Not the team announcements I was looking for. Still don’t mind the Eagles though, but just covering ourselves.

 

[jikost]

Sydney Stack

44

Sydney Stack

Age

24

Ht

179cm

Wt

75kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.5

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

8.7

5star

M

4.1

4star

T

3.0

5star

MG

202.0

3star

D

9.8

2star

K

3.4

1star

HB

6.4

4star

M

1.4

2star

T

2.8

4star

MG

133.0

2star

D

16.2

4star

K

7.2

3star

HB

9.0

5star

M

5.6

5star

T

3.0

5star

MG

227.4

4star

at FF.

2+ @ $10 b365
3+ @ $61
4+ @ $450