AFL 2022 Brownlow Medal

[balmainforever]

anybody who posts bets after the count is over on Sunday without putting them up first WILL BE CARDED

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Who is the Touk Miller

11

Touk Miller

Age

28

Ht

178cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.7

5star

K

9.5

4star

HB

12.3

5star

M

3.7

4star

T

5.4

5star

CL

4.2

5star

D

22.0

5star

K

11.4

4star

HB

10.6

5star

M

2.9

3star

T

4.8

5star

CL

4.1

5star

D

17.8

5star

K

5.8

3star

HB

12.0

5star

M

3.0

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

3.0

5star

this season?

Cameron or Brayshaw?

 

[NYRB]

can i ask why you are allocating margin to your own odds?
this should add to 100% if its your own otherwise it is useless

I had a copy of last years odds of the Sportsbet odds and what they offered was around an average 123% margin per match for around 8-12 players. That extra margin otherwise known as the “bookmakers margin” will never be set at 100%.

I could set it at 100% but I’ve also come to realise at times you have players outside the top 8 listed players that could poll the 3 votes.

 

[NYRB]

By setting a 100% margin to punters , you are offering more competitive odds to the punters. Betting exchanges for instance their margins are pretty much around the 102%-104% at the start of an AFL match .

By offering a higher margin such as 125%-130% , you are offering less lucrative odds to the punters. Sometimes as punters we have to accept $hittier odds to back a winner. But any odds better than our expectation, punters would take.

 

[NYRB]

Also another thing, markets with a higher turnover Eg ANZAC Medal winner, Norm Smith Medal where there is a pricing for best on ground , probably the best odds you will get on the Exchange . Even then your probably going to get around 108-110% margin at best.

Betting on best on Ground in a non-marquee AFL match , betting on the best on ground markets for Brownlow , I’ve seen tallies (Compiled by forum users) in percentages where they allocate the sum of percentages to 100% but how often do you see an outsider get up? Eg Sam Draper Round 1 last year . If you only factor into account 8-10 of the top players , bookmakers Will have a set margin in-play for the listed players whether it be 8,9,10,11 ,12 players etc
Imagine a scenario for Rd 1 Hawks v Essendon last year

Mitchell $4 (25%)
Merrett $4 (25%)
Parish $8 (12.5%)
McGrath $8 (12.5%)
Stringer $16 (6.25%)
OMeara $16 (6.25%)
Heppell $32 (3.125%)
Will Day

12

Will Day

Age

23

Ht

191cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.5

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

7.5

5star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.5

2star

D

17.5

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

7.5

4star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.0

2star

CL

0.5

3star

D

17.5

5star

K

10.0

4star

HB

7.5

5star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.5

3star

$32 (3.125%)
McEvoy $32 (3.125%)
Wingard $32 (3.125%)


For those listed 10 players , the margin is at 100% but it doesnt factor into account the missing players. As a bookmaker your offering a 100% margin for 10 players (Sportsbet don’t go about listing all 44 players Or very rarely so )

Bookmakers don’t do thing for “non runners”. At the end of the day these best on ground markets , the margins will never be set in favour to the punters . It’s about picking your expectation against theirs.

If your expectation is on Mitchell 80% poll 3 votes over the 25% (listed by the bookmaker) it should be a play in anyone’s books. Or even if there are a couple of players in the same match.

 

[teamlenny]

I had a copy of last years odds of the Sportsbet odds and what they offered was around an average 123% margin per match for around 8-12 players. That extra margin otherwise known as the “bookmakers margin” will never be set at 100%.

I could set it at 100% but I’ve also come to realise at times you have players outside the top 8 listed players that could poll the 3 votes.

well in theory you assign a % to every player in the match that adds to 100.

I am not sure why you have selected those 8 players, these markets aren't available yet.

Why what you have done is flawed...

You price up a coin toss market, if you copied sportsbet you would apply margin to each heads and tails, when they have a 50% each chance each.
Now you would never back <$2 on a heads or tails market even though your prices would be both less than it.

same applies here, your market should be 100% as that is what the likelihood someone gets 3 votes, it is not 125%.

It can even be under 100% which then forces you to have even greater value before betting

 

[teamlenny]

why are you writing all this garbage about margins that books use, you aren't one so you don't need to apply it to your prices you are coming up with, unless you are trying to predict what sportsbet are going to put up which makes no sense?

 

[NYRB]

why are you writing all this garbage about margins that books use, you aren't one so you don't need to apply it to your prices you are coming up with, unless you are trying to predict what sportsbet are going to put up which makes no sense?

Sorry I didn’t mean to offend you.

If what I say is “garbage”’you can ignore me. I’m not here for a fight .

 

[NYRB]

why are you writing all this garbage about margins that books use, you aren't one so you don't need to apply it to your prices you are coming up with, unless you are trying to predict what sportsbet are going to put up which makes no sense?

If you want Sportsbets odds for last years Brownlow votes is be happy to upload it for you.

 

[NYRB]

well in theory you assign a % to every player in the match that adds to 100.

Reading from your previous posts you seem like quite an astute punter. And your knowledge of margins . But what I think you missed as a “punter” I’m prepared to accept $hitter odds if a bookmaker sets out a 123% margin. For me also it would depend on what market expectation is as well for each “contract”.

When you have multiple outcomes in a sporting event , your more likely to get better odds backing something closer to 100% than 125%

 

[teamlenny]

If you want Sportsbets odds for last years Brownlow votes is be happy to upload it for you.

i don't want them.

I am simply wondering why when someone asked for votes from a game last week you provided odds from yourself which added up to over 100%.

 

[teamlenny]

Reading from your previous posts you seem like quite an astute punter. And your knowledge of margins . But what I think you missed as a “punter” I’m prepared to accept $hitter odds if a bookmaker sets out a 123% margin. For me also it would depend on what market expectation is as well for each “contract”.

When you have multiple outcomes in a sporting event , your more likely to get better odds backing something closer to 100% than 125%

this has nothing to do with with what margins a book has something set at, and the bigger the margin the less confident in the pricing and the more errors likely to be in there.

My point is if you are framing your own market up to use vs bookmakers you do not put margin into it.

 

[NYRB]

i don't want them.

I am simply wondering why when someone asked for votes from a game last week you provided odds from yourself which added up to over 100%.

Well my question is why do Sportbet set their margins at 123-130% per game last year ? I think also from memory remember them setting a margin at 145% last year .

Out of curiosity do you use Betfair or a betting exchange by any chance?

 

[NYRB]

To be honest I probably don’t have the acumen to sit down on a forum and explain the technicalities of margins to anonymous forum users online.

Think of it like this if you use an overround of 100% for betting odds , it gives you the true odds and true implications of what is going on. (Which you mentioned correctly) But bookies have to have some buffer zone to allow them to profit . (They will often undercut the odds) Sometimes as punters we can’t accept any odds given to us .

 

[teamlenny]

Well my question is why do Sportbet set their margins at 123-130% per game last year ? I think also from memory remember them setting a margin at 145% last year .

Out of curiosity do you use Betfair or a betting exchange by any chance?

it works out to be about 3% per player, group disposal markets are similar.
for something that is a head to head it'd be around 106%. On more efficient markets then the % per player or outcome is more like 2%/2.5%. AFL Head To Head for example will add to 104/105%. Even more efficient markets like US Sports moneylines/handicaps can get even closer to 100%.

the 3 vote markets are the easiest for punters to find an edge in usually so its likely the one that has the most margin applied.

 

[NYRB]

I only really learnt about “margins” about 15 years into the punting . If I come across as “confusing” I apologise.

I was never a teacher In punting despite doing tutoring in maths/stats.

 

[teamlenny]

To be honest I probably don’t have the acumen to sit down on a forum and explain the technicalities of margins to anonymous forum users online.

Think of it like this if you use an overround of 100% for betting odds , it gives you the true odds and true implications of what is going on. (Which you mentioned correctly) But bookies have to have some buffer zone to allow them to profit . (They will often undercut the odds) Sometimes as punters we can’t accept any odds given to us .

you keep missing the point, I know why bookies apply margins..
I am asking why you posted your own odds and applied them when you should be trying to find true odds which you then use to bet against bookies.

 

[NYRB]

it works out to be about 3% per player, group disposal markets are similar.
for something that is a head to head it'd be around 106%. On more efficient markets then the % per player or outcome is more like 2%/2.5%. AFL Head To Head for example will add to 104/105%. Even more efficient markets like US Sports moneylines/handicaps can get even closer to 100%.

the 3 vote markets are the easiest for punters to find an edge in usually so its likely the one that has the most margin applied.

You have said everything correctly there.

The odds for these markets to be (3 votes) are novelty type bets. Hence why their margins are relatively high. When you have 44 players I’d be surprised as to how many times a non-listed player actually polled the 3 votes given the 8th or last ranked players was at odds of $100 or 99/1.

 

[teamlenny]

You have said everything correctly there.

The odds for these markets to be (3 votes) are novelty type bets. Hence why their margins are relatively high. When you have 44 players I’d be surprised as to how many times a non-listed player actually polled the 3 votes given the 8th or last ranked players was at odds of $100 or 99/1.

This is why you assign a % to every player and not just the selected list from Sportsbet, what if another book has different players listed? you want a set price you can refer to of every player and then look at each bookie and you want your prices to add to 100%.

 

[NYRB]

you keep missing the point, I know why bookies apply margins..
I am asking why you posted your own odds and applied them when you should be trying to find true odds which you then use to bet against bookies.

Go back to the McCluggage example i posted


I reckon he is a 96.15% of polling the 3 votes.

If I saw $1.20 (which I probably wouldn’t back anyway due to it being short odds and I don’t like touching short odds anyway) , I’d back it in an ideal world. In the bookmakers world , it would probably be somewhere in between.

I can also understand where your coming from. I gather where your coming from is , to assign a player the best probability and backing that outcome if it outweighs what the Sportsbooks are offering. When backing any outcome I First of all make my own judgement and secondly I’d assign odds knowing that their margins will never be around 100%. For me anyway I don’t usually touch the short odds the $1.0X’s , im a long shot guy and take the long odds as much as possible , so that’s where I shop around for the best odds. And even for their 2nd favourites, 3rd favourites a lot of the times their odds are still pretty poor.

Anyway im not going to sit down all day and argue . IM happy to use percentages with an overround of 100% if it makes it easier for people.

 

[NYRB]

This is why you assign a % to every player and not just the selected list from Sportsbet, what if another book has different players listed? you want a set price you can refer to of every player and then look at each bookie and you want your prices to add to 100%.

Well you may have a good point .

In an ideal world if you had 8 players, would setting a margin of 110% be reasonable? Often the 9th best player is over $50 to be best on ground .

Heaps of variables to consider .
I’m starting to get where your coming from.

123% might be a bit too high for a set of 8 standout players .

 

[teamlenny]

Go back to the McCluggage example i posted


I reckon he is a 96.15% of polling the 3 votes.

If I saw $1.20 (which I probably wouldn’t back anyway due to it being short odds and I don’t like touching short odds anyway) , I’d back it in an ideal world. In the bookmakers world , it would probably be somewhere in between.

I can also understand where your coming from. I gather where your coming from is , to assign a player the best probability and backing that outcome if it outweighs what the Sportsbooks are offering. When backing any outcome I First of all make my own judgement and secondly I’d assign odds knowing that their margins will never be around 100%. For me anyway I don’t usually touch the short odds the $1.0X’s , im a long shot guy and take the long odds as much as possible , so that’s where I shop around for the best odds. And even for their 2nd favourites, 3rd favourites a lot of the times their odds are still pretty poor.

Anyway im not going to sit down all day and argue . IM happy to use percentages with an overround of 100% if it makes it easier for people.

if he 1.20 and you make it 96% chance then you should be betting it, he won't be though, likely to be $1.01, he is as close to a certainty as you can get, $1.15 or shorter went 61/62 last year for the 3, its usually a good guide in the end.

Anyway you keep failing to understand why your markets should be 100% so wont waste my time on this anymore, feel free to do whatever you like

 

[teamlenny]

In an ideal world if you had 8 players, would setting a margin of 110% be reasonable? Often the 9th best player is over $50 to be best on ground .


123% might be a bit too high for a set of 8 standout players .

yours should = 100%, there are no exceptions to this unless you want to go below 100%, this removes some error from your own pricing and would mean the only time your prices are less than a bookies price is when your edge (at least from your methods) are actually value.

you are likely going to have the top 15 or so on the field equal 99%, there is probably a 1% chance someone else gets 3 votes in a normal game.

 

[NYRB]

I’m maybe prepared to admit I learnt something from you today teamlenny .

So I thank you for your advice .

In punting you are always learning a few new tricks , Terminology here and there but I probably didn’t think of it from
Your perspective before.

 

[NYRB]

yours should = 100%, there are no exceptions to this unless you want to go below 100%, this removes some error from your own pricing and would mean the only time your prices are less than a bookies price is when your edge (at least from your methods) are actually value.

you are likely going to have the top 15 or so on the field equal 99%, there is probably a 1% chance someone else gets 3 votes in a normal game.

You didn’t happen to work for a bookmaker or sports betting company before did you?

 

[NYRB]

I should have better framed it when I released the odds for Bris v GWS Is :

“this is what I think we will Get fromThe bookies” rather than these are the “odds I would rather back”