balmainforever
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- Sep 4, 2003
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AFL 2022 Brownlow Medal
- Thread starter TheJanuaryMan
- Start date
- Tagged users None
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- Oct 6, 2011
- 34,714
- 10,562
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- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
Went back and looked in closer into Round 11 Melbourne v Fremantle, as its the first time I had a look at that game.
This is the reason I guess I dont like using 113% margins. It inflates the odds on the favourite, and you are unlikely to get these odds on the top 5-6 selected players offered by : TopSport, PointsBet , Sportsbet on their Game by Game markets. Last year the best price for Best on Ground for all games was under $3 Im pretty sure.
I quickly had a scan of this thread to look for your guys votes but didnt see much feedback.
I decided to go 3 Schultz 2 Luke Ryan 1 Lobb
Oliver was great in the 1st half and he was clear best on ground. However, Aish with the tag nullified him in the 2nd half. The best player who had the most influence was Aish but taggers have a terrible record for polling top votes. Brayshaw had a comparable game to Will Brodie. You could make a strong case for Will Brodie having a better game than Brayshaw here. In a tight , low scoring game I think Schulz with his 4 goals, albeit a couple were in junk time makes him favourite here.
Brayshaw may poll a vote here if he gets a strong run in the opening few rounds. Im happy to side with Lobb/Schultz for votes , combined 7 goals together , which was the same number of goals Melbourne got throughout the match. Lobbs contested marks stood out and playing against a Steven May less team during the 2nd half, he asserted his dominance.
You wont get odds above $3.00 for the favourite to poll 3 votes in a match. So Id imagine Schultz, if favourite would start under $3, which means the value lies with the other players and I will be looking to those other players to poll the 3.
This game is a genuine lottery to see who can poll the 3 for me. Got the nagging feeling Oliver/Brayshaw could snag the 1 vote from nowhere here. Although Im leaning towards both players not polling.
This is the reason I guess I dont like using 113% margins. It inflates the odds on the favourite, and you are unlikely to get these odds on the top 5-6 selected players offered by : TopSport, PointsBet , Sportsbet on their Game by Game markets. Last year the best price for Best on Ground for all games was under $3 Im pretty sure.
I quickly had a scan of this thread to look for your guys votes but didnt see much feedback.
I decided to go 3 Schultz 2 Luke Ryan 1 Lobb
Oliver was great in the 1st half and he was clear best on ground. However, Aish with the tag nullified him in the 2nd half. The best player who had the most influence was Aish but taggers have a terrible record for polling top votes. Brayshaw had a comparable game to Will Brodie. You could make a strong case for Will Brodie having a better game than Brayshaw here. In a tight , low scoring game I think Schulz with his 4 goals, albeit a couple were in junk time makes him favourite here.
Brayshaw may poll a vote here if he gets a strong run in the opening few rounds. Im happy to side with Lobb/Schultz for votes , combined 7 goals together , which was the same number of goals Melbourne got throughout the match. Lobbs contested marks stood out and playing against a Steven May less team during the 2nd half, he asserted his dominance.
You wont get odds above $3.00 for the favourite to poll 3 votes in a match. So Id imagine Schultz, if favourite would start under $3, which means the value lies with the other players and I will be looking to those other players to poll the 3.
This game is a genuine lottery to see who can poll the 3 for me. Got the nagging feeling Oliver/Brayshaw could snag the 1 vote from nowhere here. Although Im leaning towards both players not polling.
The Brownlow Guru
Debutant
- May 7, 2019
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Think you have to ask yourself how many defenders have exceeded expectations in recent years?
I realise Sinclair played some midfield early on but lurking around the backline unmanned hasn't been a great recipe for doing well on brownlow night.
FWIW I have Sinclair on 6 votes, so at his price not the worst stab in the dark I guess.
Noah Anderson opened $34 (Now $21) I like more and have thrown into a couple of multis. Gold coast have a soft draw home outside of Geelong and I have him with 9 votes currently.
Top 20 is usually reserved for proven vote getters. Anderson and Sinclair history? Two GC players in the top 20? One guy had 3 Saints in the top 20 a few pages back….
- Moderator
- #479
Oh for sure. I don’t expect him to finish top 20 honestly, but could do worse than a fiver on him at those odds.
footyfan35
Rookie
- May 3, 2021
- 27
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Does anybody like Tom Mitchell this year, or does he struggle to crack the top 20? Have not seen him ranked too high anywhere
I have got him on 14
BigInsideMid
Debutant
- Mar 15, 2021
- 63
- 75
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
What rounds have you got him polling? I have him on 6 votes;
R1 - 1
R5 - 1
R6 - 1
R10 - 2
R19 - 1
I have him on 6 as well
- Moderator
- #486
I’ve got him on 7.
Round 2: 0.5
Round 5: 1.5
Round 6: 0.5
Round 10: 2.5
Round 16: 0.5
Round 18: 0.5
Round 19: 1
Round 2: 0.5
Round 5: 1.5
Round 6: 0.5
Round 10: 2.5
Round 16: 0.5
Round 18: 0.5
Round 19: 1
- Moderator
- #487
Laird has been absolutely flogged in.
Top 20: $1.90 > $1.17
Top 10: $11 > $3.10
Top 20: $1.90 > $1.17
Top 10: $11 > $3.10
TheGamblor
Rookie
- Oct 16, 2020
- 36
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I only have T Mitchell on 3 votes....
Round 10 - 2 votes
Round 19 - 1 vote
Round 10 - 2 votes
Round 19 - 1 vote
Titch is the most intriguing Top 20 pick at the moment. Opened at $8.50, currently priced at $4.33 - he's either well off the mark or one big game away. Brownlow medalist, doesn't get missed in many and his main threat for votes is a second year player in Newcombe.
T Mitchell - 12
R1: 1
R2: 2
R5: 2.5
R6: 0.5
R10: 2.5
R16: 1.5
R18: 1
R19: 1
T Mitchell - 12
R1: 1
R2: 2
R5: 2.5
R6: 0.5
R10: 2.5
R16: 1.5
R18: 1
R19: 1
- Oct 6, 2011
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i think this is the year T Mitch slides, like Fyfe did last year.
Think he has time in the sun and the younger generation of the Hawks have taken over eg Newcombe, Dylan Moore.
You can take my opinion with a pinch of salt though, Ive only seen the Hawks play 4 times this season. (from 19 games)
Think he has time in the sun and the younger generation of the Hawks have taken over eg Newcombe, Dylan Moore.
You can take my opinion with a pinch of salt though, Ive only seen the Hawks play 4 times this season. (from 19 games)
Analysis Paralysis
Senior List
- Jul 25, 2018
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- Feb 25, 2013
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I have Mitchell on 7 but have underpolled him in recent years
R1 - 1
R5 - 3
R10 - 1
R16 - 1
R19 - 1
R1 - 1
R5 - 3
R10 - 1
R16 - 1
R19 - 1
offthebusgus
Debutant
- Oct 9, 2019
- 85
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- Carlton
I got Tom Mitchell on 8 and Seamus Mitchell on 0
botswana42
Debutant
- Apr 29, 2021
- 142
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the markets look pretty correct right now, but having a multi T20: Steele, CWarner, TStewart and McCluggage $9.
also Stewart $26 and Warner $7 for T10. 11.6 and 12 votes on my count respectively. Stewart playing a few teams that just whack it wildly into the f50 upcoming should feast, and decent base. CWarner taking over Sydney, bit flashy, good kick, gets snags.
Also think LNeale is a net at $4+ which is widely available purely based on fixture, and the likelihood of him being very high if not top already of the leaderboard. We have also seen him pull a few 3's out of his ass in the past, so if polling history is anything to go by, he's the one i want to be on at the current prices.
also Stewart $26 and Warner $7 for T10. 11.6 and 12 votes on my count respectively. Stewart playing a few teams that just whack it wildly into the f50 upcoming should feast, and decent base. CWarner taking over Sydney, bit flashy, good kick, gets snags.
Also think LNeale is a net at $4+ which is widely available purely based on fixture, and the likelihood of him being very high if not top already of the leaderboard. We have also seen him pull a few 3's out of his ass in the past, so if polling history is anything to go by, he's the one i want to be on at the current prices.
BIGBELLBOY
Draftee
- Sep 6, 2021
- 4
- 3
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
I’m a massive Hawks supporter who attends most games / or watches on TV. I love Titch however, I don’t believe he has shown like he has in the past. Under’s for mine. Also have him on 6 votes.
Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
Anyone heard from MRose25
- Sep 17, 2014
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Busy sellin monorails
- Status
