AFL 2022 Brownlow Medal

[balmainforever]

anybody who posts bets after the count is over on Sunday without putting them up first WILL BE CARDED

 

[Nicktheguy]

Thanks heaps everyone! At $43 on pointsbet for Gresham gonna chuck sneaky $20 on it. I have a heap of Multis that end with Neale winning! Good luck to everyone!

Down to $26 already?!
Are your multis on Pointsbet? Can't seem to multi most team votes.

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Is it because he plays for Gold Coast and there’s no media hype around him? If he played for a relevant VIC team he’d be the favourite right now

Quite true.
Good time to finally get some hype too w/coaches vote lead, podcasts, betting moves etc..
Wines definitely got 3-4 extra votes in the last month last year from it

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Surely Umps visit afl.com.au during the week and get a feel for what’s happening

 

[Jugada]

Incredibly easy to see Touk winning. He is an elite midfielder playing in a team where he has very little competition for votes. Umpires definitely noticed him once he stepped up his game to that level too polling the 3 votes in the last 5 wins for Gold Coast last year

 

[NYRB]

Just a bit of a multi for fun

Clayton Oliver

13

Clayton Oliver

Age

27

Ht

189cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.8

5star

K

9.5

4star

HB

18.4

5star

M

3.2

3star

T

6.3

5star

CL

6.3

5star

D

25.1

5star

K

11.1

4star

HB

14.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

5.6

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

19.2

5star

K

4.6

2star

HB

14.6

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

4.4

5star

CL

3.8

5star

to win the Brownlow x Akeal Hosein to Top Score with the Bat for the West Indies in Game 3 of the T20 International cricket versus India @ $700 boosted

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Is it because he plays for Gold Coast and there’s no media hype around him? If he played for a relevant VIC team he’d be the favourite right now

It’s because he shafted all of us last year.

Hopefully Maginness goes to him this week because he has snuck up on me and I have nothing on him.

 

[Spooka]

Down to $26 already?!
Are your multis on Pointsbet? Can't seem to multi most team votes.

Nah Multis on sportsbet. My biggest one is Marcus smart @$51 DPOY into Neale $11 with a bonus bet $10. Haha

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

It’s because he shafted all of us last year.

Hopefully Maginness goes to him this week because he has snuck up on me and I have nothing on him.

It wasn’t much of a surprise that he underpolled last year - it was his break out year and the break out players typically underpoll as it takes the umps a while to catch on. He was missed early in the year last year but polled when expected during the later rounds as the umps caught on to him.

He won’t get missed this year that’s for sure and who is there to take votes off him besides the occasional big game from Anderson? Keep in mind he still polled 17 votes last year which is a great foundation for this year.

 

[botswana42]

Quite true.
Good time to finally get some hype too w/coaches vote lead, podcasts, betting moves etc..
Wines definitely got 3-4 extra votes in the last month last year from it

sorry but couldn't disagree more. the umpires decide who gets the votes purely bassd on how they watch the game and perhaps with a touch of using stats. i seriously doubt they are at all involved in checking the various media sources/betting odds. I just can't imagine the umps saying to each other 'oh yeah kane cornes talked about his 2 way running on 'the round so far' or footy show' and factoring that into who gets the votes

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

Some umps will be absolute footy tragics and others won't be. Some will be able to separate the outside noise from the game in front, others won't.

And then there is O'Gorman.

 

[Sausage Legs]

It wasn’t much of a surprise that he underpolled last year - it was his break out year and the break out players typically underpoll as it takes the umps a while to catch on. He was missed early in the year last year but polled when expected during the later rounds as the umps caught on to him.

He won’t get missed this year that’s for sure and who is there to take votes off him besides the occasional big game from Anderson? Keep in mind he still polled 17 votes last year which is a great foundation for this year.

Off topic question, but aren't u the bloke that tipped zeebs to kick 5 goals at 500-1 earlier in year. Seen nuthin like it

 

[Nuggetz]

Off topic question, but aren't u the bloke that tipped zeebs to kick 5 goals at 500-1 earlier in year. Seen nuthin like it

greatest punting day ever

 

[Sausage Legs]

greatest punting day ever

The first 14 seconds of the game was boring as he hadn't kicked a goal yet

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Off topic question, but aren't u the bloke that tipped zeebs to kick 5 goals at 500-1 earlier in year. Seen nuthin like it

It was 1000-1 but who's keeping track?

 

[Nuggetz]

Are there bookies offering team leading votes or something similar? I swear I saw it earlier in the season but can't see it now...

 

[NYRB]

Are there bookies offering team leading votes or something similar? I swear I saw it earlier in the season but can't see it now...

Usually TAB release them on the Thursday from memory, have seen it pop up 1-2 days before the start of each round.

TAB also allows multis.

 

[Billionaire Panda]

sorry but couldn't disagree more. the umpires decide who gets the votes purely bassd on how they watch the game and perhaps with a touch of using stats. i seriously doubt they are at all involved in checking the various media sources/betting odds. I just can't imagine the umps saying to each other 'oh yeah kane cornes talked about his 2 way running on 'the round so far' or footy show' and factoring that into who gets the votes

Perception and hype are hard things to measure. Must be pretty difficult to work in the footy world and be oblivious to the big talking points for umps.
If someone has the time to dig into it I'm sure there's a subtle bias into 'hyped' players.

Ablett 2012 - Polls 21 votes in losses, mostly huge losses. Yes they were insane games but any other player in any other year would never consistently pull in those votes. The reason: the whole footy world was talking about Ablett's Brownlow chances at Gold Coast.

Neale 2020 - Rounds 10, 12, 18. Average games overpolls massively on the back of a crazy first half of season that warranted a lot of hype.

Wines 2021 - Rounds 19,20,21,22 Polls 7 votes when all predictors had him at 3 votes at best. Right around the time he was getting noticed in the media.


Stands to reason too, umps want to 'get it right' and it's definitely a lot easier when you think 2 players are hard to split but you know the footy world is highly likely to validate your choice of one player. Of course there's always some based Umps like O'Gorman though.

 

[teamlenny]

you have chosen 3 random years from the last decade to base your argument on.

Touk is very much alive and has been lurking near the top 5 with zero interest for weeks, 5 best ons last year in a 7 win team, he most certainly can poll what will likely be a lower than usual amount of votes needed to win

 

[Billionaire Panda]

you have chosen 3 random years from the last decade to base your argument on.

Touk is very much alive and has been lurking near the top 5 with zero interest for weeks, 5 best ons last year in a 7 win team, he most certainly can poll what will likely be a lower than usual amount of votes needed to win

Haha yeah only 3 that stick in my mind, don't have time to research it properly but often notice subtle overpolling happening to hyped players.

Absolutely agree on Touk, he had his good year last year for umps to notice him and is primed to be polling well. Just think he could sneak and extra 1 or 2 that people might not expect in the next few weeks. Am personally riding him in from 60:1 so wouldn't mind him saluting

 

[NYRB]

Perception and hype are hard things to measure. Must be pretty difficult to work in the footy world and be oblivious to the big talking points for umps.
If someone has the time to dig into it I'm sure there's a subtle bias into 'hyped' players.

Ablett 2012 - Polls 21 votes in losses, mostly huge losses. Yes they were insane games but any other player in any other year would never consistently pull in those votes. The reason: the whole footy world was talking about Ablett's Brownlow chances at Gold Coast.

Neale 2020 - Rounds 10, 12, 18. Average games overpolls massively on the back of a crazy first half of season that warranted a lot of hype.

Wines 2021 - Rounds 19,20,21,22 Polls 7 votes when all predictors had him at 3 votes at best. Right around the time he was getting noticed in the media.


Stands to reason too, umps want to 'get it right' and it's definitely a lot easier when you think 2 players are hard to split but you know the footy world is highly likely to validate your choice of one player. Of course there's always some based Umps like O'Gorman though.

View attachment 1464626

This is a pretty interesting post. No doubt 'momentum' is an important thing . Getting the earlier round votes and media hype is very much a thing.

I dont have the time this year due to study, and work commitments but it might pay to do what you did and look at the umps that didnt look at previous trends.

From Round 14 onwards last year, there were only 5 favourites to poll the 3 votes (from around the 76 matches or so) that were greater than evens. ($2 or more , from Sportsbet)

I found a few years back that Nic Nat had a better polling history in WA, than he did in the East Coast. Different umpires based in different states might have some influence.

Psychology, mind are all part of the Brownlow voting process, I guess knowing the way different umps have polled in the past is worth looking into. And yeah Im always learning stuff about umpires as well- they seem like pretty interesting individuals away from the football ground.

 

[Billionaire Panda]

No doubt 'momentum' is an important thing . Getting the earlier round votes and media hype is very much a thing.

Yep. Definitely something to just be aware of when allocating votes.

I reckon Cripps and Brayshaw are 2 that could be benefiting from this a bit at some points this year

Cripps- Round 9 v GWS. Had just come off that ridiculous (likely) 6th BOG. Had a solid game, rucked for big patches in the 2nd qtr so disposals were a little down. Would personally be looking to tack on 0.5 from this match. Similar in round 13 and 14.

Brayshaw- after rounds 12 and 13 massive games he got a lot of media attention. Some predictors only have him polling in the Saints game since then. Wouldn't be surprised if he sneaked a few in round 16,19 or 20.

 

[Billionaire Panda]

One more post on this and I'm out soz

The Anchoring Bias and its Effect on Judges — The Law Project

Click here to read a PDF/printable version of this article. This is one of the strangest psychological phenomenon’s I’ve come across… In a classic study[1], participants watched a wheel of fortune spin and were then asked to estimate the number of African countries in the United Nations. The wh

www.thelawproject.com.au

^ anchoring biases on judges who also believe they can objectively come up with an outcome based purely on the case in front of them. Quite an interesting read.

Hype, talk and momentum would definitely influence perception of how well a player has played IMO. Just not sure exactly what factor weighting we need to be allocating to it and how to measure it.

 

[SirBont]

Also logically can Miller keeping playing well love the theory of his due, for quiet game

 

[Nuggetz]

Reckon there will be a bit of value for top 3/top 10 markets too

 

[BigInsideMid]

Thoughts on Bolton @ $6 for top 20? I've currently got him at 13 votes after giving him 2 votes on Friday night.

Moved into $1.22! Hope everyone cashed in last week!