2023 Academy Awards Discussion

[phantom13]

The 94th Academy award nominations will be announced on Jan 24th US time and the awards are on March 12th.

Nominees for the majors below

BEST PICTURE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking

BEST DIRECTOR
Martin McDonagh, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Steven Spielberg, “The Fabelmans”
Todd Field, “Tár”
Ruben Ostlund, “Triangle of Sadness”

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, “Tár”
Ana de Armas, “Blonde”
Andrea Riseborough, “To Leslie”
Michelle Williams, “The Fabelmans”
Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

BEST ACTOR
Austin Butler, “Elvis”
Colin Farrell, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Brendan Fraser, “The Whale”
Paul Mescal, “Aftersun”
Bill Nighy, “Living”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Hong Chau, “The Whale”
Kerry Condon, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Stephanie Hsu, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brendan Gleeson, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Brian Tyree Henry, “Causeway”
Judd Hirsch, “The Fabelmans”
Barry Keoghan, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

CINEMATOGRAPHY
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”
“Elvis”
“Empire of Light”
“Tár”

EDITING
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“Elvis”
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
“Tár”
“Top Gun: Maverick”

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
“Living”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
“Women Talking”

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
“The Fabelmans”
“Tár”
“Triangle of Sadness”

 

[Kong]

As I do every year, I've been recording my own "best ofs" for 2022 films. I suspect about 70% of them will align with the Oscar nominations, but there will be some clear differences as there always are.

One off the top of my head is Danielle Deadwyler in Till. I assume she'll be nominated, but I found too many scenes in the film where I could see her acting, and as such I have a heap of other actresses ahead of her.

I still want to see 4 other films before I finalise my noms, but I'll post them in here when I've done that.

 

[phantom13]

Ill pop the nominee lists in here for the big awards tomorrow after they are announced.

 

[phantom13]

As I do every year, I've been recording my own "best ofs" for 2022 films. I suspect about 70% of them will align with the Oscar nominations, but there will be some clear differences as there always are.

One off the top of my head is Danielle Deadwyler in Till. I assume she'll be nominated, but I found too many scenes in the film where I could see her acting, and as such I have a heap of other actresses ahead of her.

I still want to see 4 other films before I finalise my noms, but I'll post them in here when I've done that.

Id be curious if you have a 10 in your head?

For me i think the 10 will be.

Everything Everywhere all at Once
Banshees of Inisherin
Top Gun: Maverick
The Fabelmans
Elvis
Avatar: The Way of Water
Tar
Babylon
All Quiet on the Western Front

And these two would be pushing it

Women Talking
The Whale
Triangle of Sandess
Aftersun
The Woman King

Beyond that i have no ****ing clue. Spielberg will be nommed for director, Blanchett and Yeoh will be nommed for Actress and Austin Butler will be nommed for Actor.

 

[Roobs321]

nominee likelihood to me:

certain
EEAAO
Banshees
Fabelmans
TG Maverick

almost certain
Tar
Elvis

likely
Avatar 2
Women Talking

just
AQOTWF
The Whale

possible
Black Panther 2
Babylon
Glass Onion
Aftersun
RRR
Triangle of Sadness
The Woman King

I still think Avatar 2 & Women Talking are a tad vulnerable but I'll back them in. Tar & Elvis would be shock snubs at this point. AQOTWF is a wildcard like Coda last year as whilst I'm not convinced it gets in (I think some have got carried away with the BAFTAs performance), if it does it might perform well on the preferential ballot. I've gone with The Whale for the last spot, just have a hunch there, but Babylon & BP2 are chances. Not convinced of Glass Onion, feel like the buzz has faded quickly since it hit streaming, but surely 1 of those 2 Netflix films gets in so if not AQOTWF then maybe Glass Onion. Aftersun, RRR, Triangle of Sadness and The Woman King might need to crash director in order to make the Picture cut, a tough ask and a bold prediction, their campaigns might focus on other categories. I'd be shocked if anything outside these 17 got in.

I'm probably most interested in seeing who gets that 5th slot in Best Actor and International Feature also feels very competitive, a lot could sneak a nomination there.

 

[Kong]

Id be curious if you have a 10 in your head?

For me i think the 10 will be.

Everything Everywhere all at Once
Banshees of Inisherin
Top Gun: Maverick
The Fabelmans
Elvis
Avatar: The Way of Water
Tar
Babylon
All Quiet on the Western Front

And these two would be pushing it

Women Talking
The Whale
Triangle of Sandess
Aftersun
The Woman King

Beyond that i have no ******* clue. Spielberg will be nommed for director, Blanchett and Yeoh will be nommed for Actress and Austin Butler will be nommed for Actor.

Do you mean who I think will be nominated? If so, my guess is very similar:

Banshees
Tar
Fabelmans
AQOTWF
Top Gun 2
Avatar 2
EEAAO
Babylon
Women Talking
Elvis

Black Panther 2 is highly possible as well. I think they’ll go individual nominations for The Whale and Aftersun, rather than best film.

 

[GROTTO]

Id be curious if you have a 10 in your head?

For me i think the 10 will be.

Top Gun: Maverick

Is 36 years between sequels one of the longest ever, especially been two movies that was very highly rated?

Could 'Top Gun: Maverick' Actually Win a Best Picture Oscar?

Shouldn’t the rare movie that’s loved by both audiences and critics get a shot at the big prize?

www.military.com

 

[Frank Bunn]

My list of best movies for a year often doesn't correspond well to the Oscars Best Picture list. For example, this was my list from last year. I doubt this year will be different.

1 Drive My Car
2 The Map Of Tiny Perfect Things
3 Old Henry
4 Free Guy
5 Cherry
6 The Card Counter
7 Zack Snyder's Justice League
8 Nobody
9 Titane
10 Pig

Honourable mentions

Wrath Of Man
A Quiet Place Part II
Dune
Old
No Time To Die
Shang Chi And The Legend Of The Ten Rings
Belfast

 

[Trucker Tiger]

Id be curious if you have a 10 in your head?

For me i think the 10 will be.

Everything Everywhere all at Once
Banshees of Inisherin
Top Gun: Maverick
The Fabelmans
Elvis
Avatar: The Way of Water
Tar
Babylon
All Quiet on the Western Front

Exactly the same from me. RRR might sneak in but I don't see what it knocks out.

 

[phantom13]

My tips to win:

BP: The Fabelmans. Because the Academy loves films about films.
Everything Everywhere All at Once will be the threat. Because it was incredibly popular and diverse.

Best Actor: Brendan Fraser. Because big transformations catch the Academy's eye.

Best Actress: Kate Blanchette. Although putting s**t on awards during her Golden Globe acceptance speech may cost her votes.

Best supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan. Simply because he's got the shortest odds of all the favourites at $1:18

Best Supporting Actress: Angela Bassett. Also very short at $1:40.

Btw I haven't seen any of these films.

Personally think best picture is a race in two between EEAAO and Banshees. The rest are making up numbers.

If Hollywood wants to give Spielberg something he’ll get best director.

 

[crafty_bernardo]

Best Picture: The Banshees of Inisherin (Although would love to see Top Gun Maverick win)
Best Actor: Paul Mescal
Best Supporting Actor: Brian Tyree Henry in Causeway
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett
Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin
Cinematography: All Quiet on the Western Front
Directing: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
Original Screenplay: The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Adapted Screenplay: Top Gun Maverick (Can't believe Aftersun got snubbed)

 

[phantom13]

Id be curious if you have a 10 in your head?

For me i think the 10 will be.

Everything Everywhere all at Once
Banshees of Inisherin
Top Gun: Maverick
The Fabelmans
Elvis
Avatar: The Way of Water
Tar
Babylon
All Quiet on the Western Front

And these two would be pushing it

Women Talking
The Whale
Triangle of Sandess
Aftersun
The Woman King

Beyond that i have no ******* clue. Spielberg will be nommed for director, Blanchett and Yeoh will be nommed for Actress and Austin Butler will be nommed for Actor.

Swing and a miss on Babylon (which im suprised by) but still think its a race in two for best picture. My tips below

BEST PICTURE
The Banshees of Inisherin
from
Everything Everywhere All at Once


BEST DIRECTOR
Steven Spielberg, “The Fabelmans”
Semi make up Oscar for the film not winning best picture IMO

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, “Tár”
from
Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

BEST ACTOR
Brendan Fraser, “The Whale”
This is with no confidence, any of them except Butler i think can win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Two for EEAAO probably cancel each other out and career achievement award

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
The Hollywood moment we all want, tightest lock of the night IMO

CINEMATOGRAPHY
“All Quiet on the Western Front”

EDITING
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“All Quiet on the Western Front”

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“The Banshees of Inisherin”

 

[Sketi]

No major surprises. Would have liked to see Mia Goth nominated for Pearl but that was more of a pipedream than anything.

Babylon misses out but maybe cut your movie run time down a bit and people will actually want to watch it.

 

[phantom13]

No major surprises. Would have liked to see Mia Goth nominated for Pearl but that was more of a pipedream than anything.

Babylon misses out but maybe cut your movie run time down a bit and people will actually want to watch it.

Yeh Goth was absolutely deserving but Horror is toxic waste to the academy (it was a relaly good year for horror too).

I suspect Babylon was too late, would assume a bunch of Academy members havent seen it yet.

 

[Roobs321]

nominee likelihood to me:

certain
EEAAO
Banshees
Fabelmans
TG Maverick

almost certain
Tar
Elvis

likely
Avatar 2
Women Talking

just
AQOTWF
The Whale

possible
Black Panther 2
Babylon
Glass Onion
Aftersun
RRR
Triangle of Sadness
The Woman King

I still think Avatar 2 & Women Talking are a tad vulnerable but I'll back them in. Tar & Elvis would be shock snubs at this point. AQOTWF is a wildcard like Coda last year as whilst I'm not convinced it gets in (I think some have got carried away with the BAFTAs performance), if it does it might perform well on the preferential ballot. I've gone with The Whale for the last spot, just have a hunch there, but Babylon & BP2 are chances. Not convinced of Glass Onion, feel like the buzz has faded quickly since it hit streaming, but surely 1 of those 2 Netflix films gets in so if not AQOTWF then maybe Glass Onion. Aftersun, RRR, Triangle of Sadness and The Woman King might need to crash director in order to make the Picture cut, a tough ask and a bold prediction, their campaigns might focus on other categories. I'd be shocked if anything outside these 17 got in.

I'm probably most interested in seeing who gets that 5th slot in Best Actor and International Feature also feels very competitive, a lot could sneak a nomination there.

9/10 but predicted Triangle would need to hit Director to get in (not exactly a fact, but we'll run with it). I'd been feeling Ostlund in director for a while now, but was less confident in the film making Picture.

The Whale got Hong Chau and makeup, but that almost entire lack of heat all awards season for Aronofsky in director probably killed it in the end, no one was predicting him for what feels like months now. Still, watching live there was a great bit of alphabetical BP tension in the end, as after announcing their 9th nomination Triangle of Sadness you knew that Women Talking would have to fend off Whale & Woman King.

So happy that Glass Onion only got adapted (which is ghetto this year anyway)

I was over the moon with Mescal, Henry, Riseborough and especially Ana de Armas (which meant a great deal to me).

 

[Warsaw]

Seems pretty chalk. Some random thoughts:

• The Riseborough campaign, led exclusively by her actor friends in the last couple of weeks, for a film no one's seen is super amusing.
• Really liked Triangle of Sadness, but Dolly De Leon not getting a nom when she was so clearly the best part about the film is kinda wild, especially in a relatively weak category.
• Decision to Leave not in the best International Feature...surprising as all hell and I would have backed Park Chan-Wook for a directing nom too.
• Keep coming back to Nope and how I think it's pretty special. Five years from now it might end up being my favourite of the year. A complete shutout is a bummer, especially in Cinematography - don't think there was anything better.
• Babylon is now firmly in the 'how did this get made' camp (even if I loved it). A disaster commercially, critically divided and no main Oscar noms where it might have got people to check it out. Oh well...Justin Hurwitz is probably a lock and that will be deserved, the score absolutely slays.

 

[Roobs321]

Seems pretty chalk. Some random thoughts:

• Decision to Leave not in the best International Feature...surprising as all hell and I would have backed Park Chan-Wook for a directing nom too.

I predicted this. The Quiet Girl & EO were right up the Oscars alley, and the other three AQOTWF, Argentina 1985 and Close were almost certain to make it. Along with RRR and in some ways Triangle, there was just a bit more heat in the International space this year than usual.

 

[Warsaw]

I predicted this. The Quiet Girl & EO were right up the Oscars alley, and the other three AQOTWF, Argentina 1985 and Close were almost certain to make it. Along with RRR and in some ways Triangle, there was just a bit more heat in the International space this year than usual.

Definitley competitive, but thought Park Chan-wook's profile and the fact that he's never been nominated before might have got him across the line. Think RRR wasn't even nominated by India to be their film...

 

[Kong]

Judd Hirsch being nominated is hilarious.

Hilarious, predictable and wrong.

 

[phantom13]

Seems pretty chalk. Some random thoughts:

• The Riseborough campaign, led exclusively by her actor friends in the last couple of weeks, for a film no one's seen is super amusing.
• Really liked Triangle of Sadness, but Dolly De Leon not getting a nom when she was so clearly the best part about the film is kinda wild, especially in a relatively weak category.
• Decision to Leave not in the best International Feature...surprising as all hell and I would have backed Park Chan-Wook for a directing nom too.
• Keep coming back to Nope and how I think it's pretty special. Five years from now it might end up being my favourite of the year. A complete shutout is a bummer, especially in Cinematography - don't think there was anything better.
• Babylon is now firmly in the 'how did this get made' camp (even if I loved it). A disaster commercially, critically divided and no main Oscar noms where it might have got people to check it out. Oh well...Justin Hurwitz is probably a lock and that will be deserved, the score absolutely slays.

The Riseborough thing is so ****ing funny.

This happened a few years back with The Wife but at least that was Glenn Close and a few people had seen it.

 

[Kong]

Also, sound nomination for Elvis

The worst sound mixing I’ve seen in a film all year. Reminds me of Bohemian Rhapsody cleaning up a few years ago.

 

[phantom13]

Also, sound nomination for Elvis

The worst sound mixing I’ve seen in a film all year. Reminds me of Bohemian Rhapsody cleaning up a few years ago.

I think its mixed that way for a reason but i get your point.

It being nommed for editing is truly bizarre although i think BR was too and that was an abomination, there were that many errors in changed shots it was staggering.

 

[Sketi]

Seems pretty chalk. Some random thoughts:

• The Riseborough campaign, led exclusively by her actor friends in the last couple of weeks, for a film no one's seen is super amusing.
• Really liked Triangle of Sadness, but Dolly De Leon not getting a nom when she was so clearly the best part about the film is kinda wild, especially in a relatively weak category.
• Decision to Leave not in the best International Feature...surprising as all hell and I would have backed Park Chan-Wook for a directing nom too.
• Keep coming back to Nope and how I think it's pretty special. Five years from now it might end up being my favourite of the year. A complete shutout is a bummer, especially in Cinematography - don't think there was anything better.
• Babylon is now firmly in the 'how did this get made' camp (even if I loved it). A disaster commercially, critically divided and no main Oscar noms where it might have got people to check it out. Oh well...Justin Hurwitz is probably a lock and that will be deserved, the score absolutely slays.

Good points about Nope for cinematography and Decision to Leave, have to agree there.

 

[Roobs321]

Think RRR wasn't even nominated by India to be their film...

Exactly, feels like there is a case like this every year or so, although I'm sure these submission choices seem more sensible and representative internally than it might appear externally. Different perspectives and all. But in terms of awards season it was fun to have these ineligible wildcards creating chaos and crowding out the noise a bit.

 

[offtherails9]

Nope stiffed to be completely shut out. Babylon probably too.