AFL 2023 - AFL Round 14

[balmainforever]

 

[jikost]

Yeah pretty sure DBJ stays forward this week. As bulletride pointed out he's had 10+ defensive forward tackles twice in the last few weeks so he's playing his role brilliantly and can't see why they would move him back now given their form of late.

Burton 6+ marks @ $2.9 tab - Looking at his stats over the last couple of years he's basically a 50% chance of clearing 6+ marks when playing down back so this looks slightly overs to me.

8+ @ $7

 

[NYRB]

Cross Sport Multi

Golf and AFL Round 14

Isaac Heeney

5

Isaac Heeney

Age

28

Ht

185cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.2

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

7.7

5star

M

4.9

5star

T

4.1

5star

CL

2.2

4star

D

14.3

3star

K

8.8

4star

HB

5.5

3star

M

4.8

4star

T

2.5

3star

CL

0.8

3star

D

10.4

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.4

4star

CL

0.8

3star

2+ Goals v Brisbane

Sam Burns Top 30 Finish at the US Open golf Major

Odds: $10.40

 

[Long Shot Louie]

Bit of a degen one here, involving a forward line switcheroo that the international boffins at B365 are not awake to, possibly because he didn’t trouble the scorers last week, but Lachie Keefe was playing forward/Ruck last week and given the likely inclusions in defence for the giants this week I reckon that’s where he’ll stay. A few on the Giants board reckon he could be dropped but I think he’s likely to stay in given his role as a backup ruckman and the stated desire of the coach to keep Himmelberg in defence.

Keefe is a big spud and it’s B365, so beer money only, but good odds for anyone playing mostly key forward.

Keefe atg@$4.25
Keefe 2+$61

 

[NonPhixion]

Bit of a degen one here, involving a forward line switcheroo that the international boffins at B365 are not awake to, possibly because he didn’t trouble the scorers last week, but Lachie Keefe was playing forward/Ruck last week and given the likely inclusions in defence for the giants this week I reckon that’s where he’ll stay. A few on the Giants board reckon he could be dropped but I think he’s likely to stay in given his role as a backup ruckman and the stated desire of the coach to keep Himmelberg in defence.

Keefe is a big spud and it’s B365, so beer money only, but good odds for anyone playing mostly key forward.

Keefe atg@$4.25
Keefe 2+$61

tailed the great man

 

[ferrisb]

Bit of a degen one here, involving a forward line switcheroo that the international boffins at B365 are not awake to, possibly because he didn’t trouble the scorers last week, but Lachie Keefe was playing forward/Ruck last week and given the likely inclusions in defence for the giants this week I reckon that’s where he’ll stay. A few on the Giants board reckon he could be dropped but I think he’s likely to stay in given his role as a backup ruckman and the stated desire of the coach to keep Himmelberg in defence.

Keefe is a big spud and it’s B365, so beer money only, but good odds for anyone playing mostly key forward.

Keefe atg@$4.25
Keefe 2+$61

I LOVE the thinking, but am worried about the execution.

This feels like one of those situations where you find a brilliant opportunity, you outsmart the bookies and Keefe indeed lines up in the fwd line. 3/3 and you're a genius! Only for Keefe to get 4 touches, kick 0.2 and be subbed out at HT.

 

[PAFC18]

Port are undefeated since DBJ went forward, I can't see any reason they would be looking to change things up now.

Personally I'm looking at his tackle market for a bit of value. He's been a bit all or nothing but in the past month he's gone 10, 0, 1 & 12 tackles. The 10 and 12 came in games against the Dogs and Melbourne while the 0 and 1 came against Hawthorn and Richmond. This suggests to me he relishes the high pressure contest against quality opposition which tonight's game should be. Taking $8/$21 for 8+/10+ tackles at TAB.

That's a bit of a simplistic view, the two games he got 0 and 1 were dry games and the high numbers were wet games so unless the ground is wet tonight, I doubt he is getting close to 10+.

edit: Got this wrong, was thinking about the earlier match. Forgot we played WB twice. Carry on

 

[sohohoho]

That's a bit of a simplistic view, the two games he got 0 and 1 were dry games and the high numbers were wet games so unless the ground is wet tonight, I doubt he is getting close to 10+.

real wet under the roof last week

 

[NYRB]

And I reckon Geelong can keep it close tonight


Cross sport multi

Cameron Smith to Finish Top 5 at the US Open golf major
Geelong +10.5 handicap v Port Adelaide

Odds: $12.35

 

[Long Shot Louie]

I LOVE the thinking, but am worried about the execution.

This feels like one of those situations where you find a brilliant opportunity, you outsmart the bookies and Keefe indeed lines up in the fwd line. 3/3 and you're a genius! Only for Keefe to get 4 touches, kick 0.2 and be subbed out at HT.

This contingency has definitely played out on several of the 61 planets of which I have visualised this game being played.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Cross Sport Multi

Golf and AFL Round 14

Isaac Heeney 2+ Goals v Brisbane

Sam Burns Top 30 Finish at the US Open golf Major

Odds: $10.40

Heeney is playing mid, tread carefully

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Jack Buller likely debut for Sydney...now I'm temped kicked 5 in the reserves last week

 

[ferrisb]

Jack Buller likely debut for Sydney...now I'm temped kicked 5 in the reserves last week

Even more impressive given Syd reserves are trash this year?

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Even more impressive given Syd reserves are trash this year?

Yep. Looks like we may (touch wood) have found someone in the MCD. Apparently have extended his contract already. Can't be worse than the Cadman disaster lol

 

[ferrisb]

This contingency has definitely played out on several of the 61 planets of which I have visualised this game being played.

OK, I too have visualised hundreds of planets and saw some whacky stuff on some of them...

It might be the imaginary interplanetary jet-lag talking, but my tips are GC -79.5 @ $101 and GC -97.5 @ $501 on SB

Carlton is broken. There is a chance the coach has lost the players. If ever there was a playing list that would throw their coach under the bus in grandiose fashion.... this is it.

Teague's 2nd last match, the Blues lost by 95 points.
The Blues lost the last two games of Bolton's final (full season) by 100+
Malthouse lost his last two matches by 77 and 78
Ratten didn't have any massive losses, but in his 2nd last match Carlton lost to GC.... in 2012. GC's 2nd season, when they only won two other matches all year. This 12-point loss sealed Ratten's fate that year.

I have had some terrible false alarms on this over the years. Just in the last few years, it looked like WBD, Coll and Port were all lost causes before bouncing back strongly. But Carlton is different. Carlton is.....worse. In Bolton's final days, Cripps played dead for three weeks in a row. And once Bolton got sacked he immediately bounced back with a 38D/4G match. #Judas

Carlton might pull out a win this week. The odds say they should. But if this match was being played on 501 planets (the equivalent of GC playing THIS Blues side every week for 23 seasons), it seems pretty unlikely IMO that none of them will deliver a 100+ point win for the Suns.

As a safeguard, I have put money on -79.5 and -97.5 in bet return multis with two short legs. So I have a decent chance of getting my money back and a small chance of hitting it big.

It's crazy. It won't happen. But it just might.

 

[kirim]

Wines 20+
Rozzee 25+
Boak 20+
Dixon 2+
Cameron 2+
Stengle ats

 

[kirim]

Wines 20+
Rozzee 25+
Boak 20+
Dixon 2+
Cameron 2+
Stengle ats

This goes very close!

 

[kirim]

Hawkins 3,4,5
Marshall 3,4,5
Stengle 2,3

 

[Selim]

Marshall 2-5 @2, 4.10, 11, 31

Hawkins 3-6 @2.90, 6.25, 15, 46

Stengle 2-4 @2.52, 5.90, 18

Rioli 2-4 @2.69, 6.50, 20

 

[maxcoll34]

Ryan Burton

3

Ryan Burton

Age

27

Ht

191cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.5

5star

K

12.1

4star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.1

4star

MG

277.3

4star

D

16.8

4star

K

12.3

5star

HB

4.5

3star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.0

2star

MG

277.3

4star

D

13.4

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

4.4

4star

M

4.8

5star

T

2.2

4star

25+ TAB $17 seems too big, should go back tonight, hit 25 multiple times last year when playing in the backline. Most other bookies in the $6-$8 range, good luck if you follow


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Stengle is on my sack file so congrats fellas

 

[X_box_X]

Yeah pretty sure DBJ stays forward this week. As bulletride pointed out he's had 10+ defensive forward tackles twice in the last few weeks so he's playing his role brilliantly and can't see why they would move him back now given their form of late.

Burton 6+ marks @ $2.9 tab - Looking at his stats over the last couple of years he's basically a 50% chance of clearing 6+ marks when playing down back so this looks slightly overs to me.

8+ @ $7

If DBJ is playing fwd, then $1.85 for him to kick a goal w TAB is good value. I doubt you'll find better odds than that - I've looked.

$4.50 for 2+ goals and $17 for 3+ goals could also be worth a crack.

Since his move to the forward line in round five (I'm not counting round four because he came on as a sub), he has returned totals of 2, 2, 0, 2, 0, 1, 1, 0. In total, he has kicked 8 goals 7 behinds in those eight matches.

 

[fpm84]

Rioli is a late out so DBJ will surely stay forward.

 

[HTPunter]

DBJ 8 tackles
Bruhn 6 tackles
Danger 4 tackles
$46 with multiplier on TAB

 

[jikost]

If DBJ is playing fwd, then $1.85 for him to kick a goal w TAB is good value. I doubt you'll find better odds than that - I've looked.

$4.50 for 2+ goals and $17 for 3+ goals could also be worth a crack.

Since his move to the forward line in round five (I'm not counting round four because he came on as a sub), he has returned totals of 2, 2, 0, 2, 0, 1, 1, 0. In total, he has kicked 8 goals 7 behinds in those eight matches.

Yep, those are good odds for DBJ

The other one I like is JHF. He has kicked a goal in his last 5 matches and had 2 scoring shots in his last 3. Narkle as the late in might even steal some of his midfield minutes and push him forward for longer spells.

JHF AGS $2.03 TS

2+ @ $6.75

 

[Atavistic]

Buller named on the bench. What chances B365 put him at long odds?