balmainforever
Dibs
- Sep 4, 2003
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AFL 2023 - AFL Round 2
- Thread starter balmainforever
- Start date
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wha? What happened? - i had a 15minute power nap as nothing interesting was happening..
Yes!
1 goal nearly covers outlay, now i just need another for profit to start. but im not expecting anything more as wc has been way too dominant today..
ryan or jones junk goal please
An average week for me.
Saad kicked it off nicely but Bruhn, Maynard & Rayner were busts and feel like Cumming, Noble and Hopper were the right plays just unlucky as they were all pretty close to cashing.
Made it a bit easier with Langford and a few other tips from the degens helping. Onto next week!
Saad kicked it off nicely but Bruhn, Maynard & Rayner were busts and feel like Cumming, Noble and Hopper were the right plays just unlucky as they were all pretty close to cashing.
Made it a bit easier with Langford and a few other tips from the degens helping. Onto next week!
- Jun 16, 2018
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Round 2 review
Henry .5u each 4+ 5+ $21 $81 tab [kicked 2.1]
Motlop .5u each 3+ 4+ $23 $81 pb [1.0]
Multi Pedlar Chandler Adams 0.5u each all AGS $6, all 2+ $200, pb
Mills .5u each 2+ 3+, $14, $67, pb [2.0]
Warner .5u each 3+ 4+, $11, $38, ts [0.1]
Cunningham .5u each 2+, 3+, $4.25, $13, pb [0.0]
Switkowski .5u each 3+ 4+ $12 $34 pb [1.1]
Grundy .5u 3+ $18 ts [0.0]
Gawn .5u 3+ $9 tab [0.0]
Long .5u each Long 3+ 4+, $22 $81, ts [0.0]
Rowston .5u each Rowston 2+ 3+, $10 $26, tab [0.1]
Waterman .5u each 4+ 5+, $26 $81, ts [4.2]
Draper .5u each 2+ 3+ ($4.25 $13 pb) [0.2]
Perkins .5u each 3+ 4+ 5+ ($6.50 $15 $51 pb) [1.0]
Jye Menzie .5u each 4+ 5+ ($34 $81 ts) [2.0]
Sam Flanders .5u each 2+ 3+ 4+ ($6.75 $26 $81 ts) [0.0]
Ben Ainsworth .5u each 3+ 4+ ($11 $34, ts) [1.2]
Daniels .5u each 2+ 3+ 4+ ($5.20 $20 $67 ts) [1.0]
---
Outlay: 19u | Return: 20u | Net: +1u
Winners: Waterman, Mills
Losers: Everybody else
Just one more goal to Waterman would have made up for last week's losses (20u) and given me some house money for next week.
He kicked 4.2 from 9 touches inside 50. Nine touches inside 50, crazy stuff, but only 4.2, farken
Mills only had two touches inside 50 for two goals so can't really complain there.
One more goal would have meant another 33 units in the kitty, though.
The Gawn injury derailed my Gawn / Grundy bets, still think those made sense at the time. Not to be.
I missed the Langford train because when I did my analysis I thought he would play defense, I wasn't home when Weideman was pulled from the game.
This is the same reason I missed the Ziebell train vs Sydney last year, I wasn't at the station when the train was leaving.
I like to think that one day I will be able to spend the entire day watching the punting board and Fox Footy, Thursday to Sunday.
At least for rounds 1 and 2.
Speaking of Rds 1 and 2, this is traditionally when there is money to be made on goal trains.
In my experience it gets more and more difficult from Rd3 onwards.
After going -20u in Rd1 and basically breakeven Rd2, it looks like 2023 will not be my year on the footy punt.
All I can say is thank **** for bankroll management, a concept I learned on this board a few years ago.
Congrats to the winners on the Langford train, the best train of 2023 so far.
See you all next week
(And by next week I mean tomorrow in the Rd 3 thread, a degen's work is never over)
Henry .5u each 4+ 5+ $21 $81 tab [kicked 2.1]
Motlop .5u each 3+ 4+ $23 $81 pb [1.0]
Multi Pedlar Chandler Adams 0.5u each all AGS $6, all 2+ $200, pb
Mills .5u each 2+ 3+, $14, $67, pb [2.0]
Warner .5u each 3+ 4+, $11, $38, ts [0.1]
Cunningham .5u each 2+, 3+, $4.25, $13, pb [0.0]
Switkowski .5u each 3+ 4+ $12 $34 pb [1.1]
Grundy .5u 3+ $18 ts [0.0]
Gawn .5u 3+ $9 tab [0.0]
Long .5u each Long 3+ 4+, $22 $81, ts [0.0]
Rowston .5u each Rowston 2+ 3+, $10 $26, tab [0.1]
Waterman .5u each 4+ 5+, $26 $81, ts [4.2]
Draper .5u each 2+ 3+ ($4.25 $13 pb) [0.2]
Perkins .5u each 3+ 4+ 5+ ($6.50 $15 $51 pb) [1.0]
Jye Menzie .5u each 4+ 5+ ($34 $81 ts) [2.0]
Sam Flanders .5u each 2+ 3+ 4+ ($6.75 $26 $81 ts) [0.0]
Ben Ainsworth .5u each 3+ 4+ ($11 $34, ts) [1.2]
Daniels .5u each 2+ 3+ 4+ ($5.20 $20 $67 ts) [1.0]
---
Outlay: 19u | Return: 20u | Net: +1u
Winners: Waterman, Mills
Losers: Everybody else
Just one more goal to Waterman would have made up for last week's losses (20u) and given me some house money for next week.
He kicked 4.2 from 9 touches inside 50. Nine touches inside 50, crazy stuff, but only 4.2, farken
Mills only had two touches inside 50 for two goals so can't really complain there.
One more goal would have meant another 33 units in the kitty, though.
The Gawn injury derailed my Gawn / Grundy bets, still think those made sense at the time. Not to be.
I missed the Langford train because when I did my analysis I thought he would play defense, I wasn't home when Weideman was pulled from the game.
This is the same reason I missed the Ziebell train vs Sydney last year, I wasn't at the station when the train was leaving.
I like to think that one day I will be able to spend the entire day watching the punting board and Fox Footy, Thursday to Sunday.
At least for rounds 1 and 2.
Speaking of Rds 1 and 2, this is traditionally when there is money to be made on goal trains.
In my experience it gets more and more difficult from Rd3 onwards.
After going -20u in Rd1 and basically breakeven Rd2, it looks like 2023 will not be my year on the footy punt.
All I can say is thank **** for bankroll management, a concept I learned on this board a few years ago.
Congrats to the winners on the Langford train, the best train of 2023 so far.
See you all next week
(And by next week I mean tomorrow in the Rd 3 thread, a degen's work is never over)
mozz23
Team Captain
- Jul 6, 2021
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heck me boys what a day.
Been on a bender all weekend and just catching up. Well done to the couple of others that beat me to this post.
Was chatting with a mate at the game and saw langers having shots at goal which made me post this.
Hope a few had good collects on langgod
- Oct 6, 2011
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Thats the biggest lesson I have learnt from the BigFooty Punting Board. Some posters on here use that system and mention it on here pretty clearly. Maybe 5 years ago, I was not thinking about it but its important because you want to leave yourself with a bankroll for further bets and in case your bets do go downhill. Hence, I like to use a unit system 1.0 unit, 0.20 units, 0.15 units etc .Round 2 review
All I can say is thank **** for bankroll management, a concept I learned on this board a few years ago.
Congrats to the winners on the Langford train, the best train of 2023 so far.
See you all next week
(And by next week I mean tomorrow in the Rd 3 thread, a degen's work is never over)
Thinking about bet365 pricing algorithm of pricing Goalscorer odds, had he been $67 there for 3+ goals (which I didnt see because I never use their site/have been banned), he would have been alot higher for 4+, 5+ etc goals. Feeling a bit of envy to the guys who have access to it.
Also the first 10 games of the AFL season, all my bets were losses....so a rebound is nice. But Im expecting the worst if things come bad. I can take a whack if I have a run of 5-6 rounds where it all goes pear shaped. As the saying goes 'your next loss is just around the corner'.
Also , on a slightly different point in commentary today, Kelli Underwood asked the question 'what was considered a bag these days?'. Healy (or the guy commentating with her ) said '6 is considered a bag these days', which was a pretty interesting response. Maybe Gerard Healy is reading these threads? In the 80's and 90s, kicking a bag of 10-12 was considered a day out.
The amount will vary for everyone but generally 1u should be about 1% of your bankroll.
I don't think Gerard Healy is reading the BigFooty Punting board
