AFL 2023 - AFL Round 3

[balmainforever]

 

[mouncey2franklin]

How did we not see the JUH train from a mile away, given the recent racism stuff and the fact he plays for Free Kick Bulldogs?

That free for a 'late hit' was soft as butter, even Daisy called it out live on the air, something commentators generally refrain from.

At least the Baker brought home the AGS, don't think we will see $2.60 for AGS for him again next week.

I like Leeroy Brown's thinking regarding Sheezel, there's no way I'm going to risk missing this year's Ziebell vs Sydney train.

Does anybody know where one might be able to sell the clothes off one's back? Asking for a friend...

 

[demon_fanatic]

How did we not see the JUH train from a mile away, given the recent racism stuff and the fact he plays for Free Kick Bulldogs?

That free for a 'late hit' was soft as butter, even Daisy called it out live on the air, something commentators generally refrain from.

At least the Baker brought home the AGS, don't think we will see $2.60 for AGS for him again next week.

I like Leeroy Brown's thinking regarding Sheezel, there's no way I'm going to risk missing this year's Ziebell vs Sydney train.

Does anybody know where one might be able to sell the clothes off one's back? Asking for a friend...

Surely mcguiness goes LDU but as hes probably going to to try stop the drive from the source... N n thats LDU..mcguiness is pretty successful yeh at keeping guys under 20 disp when doing a tag?? Sicily fantasy line 0 vs Ldu at pointsbet could be nice if LDU cops tag and sicily breaks down norths attacks... Whos taking hawks kick ins? I noticed swans kicked 16 behinds last week but sicily kicks total wasnt huge

 

[Robo87]

How did we not see the JUH train from a mile away, given the recent racism stuff and the fact he plays for Free Kick Bulldogs?

That free for a 'late hit' was soft as butter, even Daisy called it out live on the air, something commentators generally refrain from.

At least the Baker brought home the AGS, don't think we will see $2.60 for AGS for him again next week.

I like Leeroy Brown's thinking regarding Sheezel, there's no way I'm going to risk missing this year's Ziebell vs Sydney train.

im disappointed i didnt see JUH coming either.
ive tailed Sheezel 1-3g and brockman 1-3g too, for 'just incase' reasons.
I think maybe brockman might have more chances for goals against NM than a disappointing Daniels could get vs a stronger WC team last week too.
having said that im still on the Larky 3-6g train also.

Does anybody know where one might be able to sell the clothes off one's back? Asking for a friend...

also i heard if you collect 10 cans & recycle them they give you a $1 back in South Australia.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Slapping a bonus bet for Brockman's return, 2 & 3 Goals (6.25, 23.00 SB)

Very nice, tailed.

Brockman .5u each 2+ 3+ $6, $23

Also a multi Brockman 2 LDU 2 @ $30.

LDU kicked 2.0 against this mob last year and has gone 1.1 and 1.1 to start this season.

 

[ferrisb]

Slapping a bonus bet for Brockman's return, 2 & 3 Goals (6.25, 23.00 SB)

Paying $29 for 1st goal on SB

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Ash Johnson is listed as ruck but will likely spend more time forward.

He replaces Cox who only spent about 1/3 of the game in the ruck in Rds 1 and 2, Cameron taking about two thirds.

Johnson kicked four goals in the VFL last week.

Cox 2 Johnson =

Johnson .5u each 4+ 5+ $21 $61 topsport

 

[ferrisb]

Zeibell 2+, 3+ paying $41 and $301 on bet365

I get that's he's not a forward any more, but North love swinging him fwd every now and then.

Kicked 3 against the Hawks in Tassie last year. Just sayin...

 

[ferrisb]

Ash Johnson is listed as ruck but will likely spend more time forward.

He replaces Cox who only spent about 1/3 of the game in the ruck in Rds 1 and 2, Cameron taking about two thirds.

Johnson kicked four goals in the VFL last week.

Cox 2 Johnson =

Johnson .5u each 4+ 5+ $21 $61 topsport

Collingwood replaced a giant Cox with a red hot Johnson....?

 

[BloodRet]

TAILED THE SHEEZ AND BROCK LESNAR

 

[NYRB]

Western Bulldogs struggled in defence against the likes of: Caminiti, Mitch Owens and Philipou last week. So who knows what Brisbane could dish up tonight with a much better forward line. Saints looked dangerous when they moved the ball fast into the 50 forward line.

I reckon the ball will live in the Bulldogs forward line a bit in this game. Feel a bit worried more about the Brisbane margin more so than Keath disposals.

So Ill go,

Brisbane by 1-39 pts winning margin
Neale 25+ Disposals
Dunkley 25+ Disposals
Alex Keath 15+ Disposals
@ $14.25 Sportsbet Free Hit . Gone down from $16 eariier this morning. Same bet at Pointsbet pays a paltry $9.85/ Ladbrokes $12.21/TAB has it at $19.55, which ive topped up a bit more on.


Also doing a straight up on Keath 15+ Disposals @ $4.10


Think it will be a high marks game, TAB have Josh Bruce and Crozier for 8+ Marks at $1.90, Keath and Liam Jones for 8+ Marks at $2.15. At those prices Il stay away from. Western Bulldogs v Saints had a combined 235 marks last week.

Did a bit of a regression analysis in R, this week to see if there was indeed a correlation between Marks and High scoring at the venue, and I guess is supports my view.

View attachment 1644170


I think we will see another 'high mark ' game. I got a linear regression line of:

Total Match points =-0.5942 (Total Marks Combined) +285.92


With the total Points line being sat 173.5 by the bookies, they are predicting a marks line of around 189 or so.

I think we will see a similar game to last week, where the Dogs like to chip it around the back to collect their marks. So 189 marks is a very low number in my opinion.

Correlation coefficients for 2020 and 2021 a the Docklands has seen no relationship, only in the last year have we seen it. 2020 correlation coefficient was +0.099 and for 2021 it was -0.1034. There was virtually no relationship between marks and points scored in those years.

1 winner and 1 bet refund to start the round

Keath ended up with 23 disposals.

The total game had 194 marks.

 

[freo_leo29]

Slapping a bonus bet for Brockman's return, 2 & 3 Goals (6.25, 23.00 SB)

Love this one

 

[GROTTO]

I like Leeroy Brown's thinking regarding Sheezel, there's no way I'm going to risk missing this year's Ziebell vs Sydney train.

I read the tea leaves this morning, the z in Sheezel, is to remind us of the Ziebell train last year, all aboard.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Worst forward line in the league by a country mile. Surely they have someone else to bring into the side…

 

[HTPunter]

Charlie Dixon

22

Charlie Dixon

Age

34

Ht

200cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.7

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

4.7

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.6

5star

D

10.5

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

3.5

2star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.5

2star

G

2.5

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

3.8

3star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.8

4star

G

0.8

4star

looks the fittest he’s been in a long time, probably 2020 where he had his best run of form ever, he’s a mountain of a man and the Crows have an undersized defence - the only player close to his size is Butts and they didn’t trust Butts against Lynch last week - regardless if he gets Butts or Murray it’s a good match up for a train.

Kicked 3.3 & 3.1 this year so getting amongst it against better defences and defenders than the Crows

$2.60 3+
$5.50 4+
$13 5+
$34 6+
$18 Showdown Medal

Sportsbet

 

[Fizza]

Rankine AGS
Rachele AGS
Gollant AGS
Rioli AGS
@ 4.75 Bet365

Only @ 3.20 SB so some better value there at 365

 

[snags_44]

Will Ash Johnson ruck or mostly play forward? Any Pies fans here?

I actually don't think he'll play any ruck. Cameron main and McStay doing 1/3. Johnson mostly FWD

 

[GROTTO]

I actually don't think he'll play any ruck. Cameron main and McStay doing 1/3. Johnson mostly FWD

 

[NYRB]

Pies and Richmond prefer to play a faster style of footy. They are ranked 12th and 14th last season per average for AFL Fantasy per game. Going into this game ranked 6th and 11th per game for 2023. Think acquring Mitchell and Taranto has increased their Fantasy ranks as a team this season. I feel more confident in a game with goals tonight rather than disposals. Both teams dont seem to care about racking up stats as much.


Ill use my free hit on Sportsbet (which I havent won yet ) on

Tom Lynch 3+ Goals
Jack Riewoldt 2+ Goals

@ $4.50


Also a bit more of a speculative play:

Tom Lynch Anytime Goalscorer 1st Qtr
Tom Lynch Anytime Goalscorer 2nd Qtr
Beau McCreery 2+ Goals
Samson Ryan 2+ Goals
@ $51

Samson played well last week and provided a good option as a tall for Richmond. Beau McCreery shot 1.4 last year against Richmond, I sense he will get his chances a matter of converting. Lynch kicked 6 goals last year against the same team , so playing that faster pace I think he prefers. (Last year Lynch kicked 1,4,0,1 against Collingwood qtr by qtr). Maybe a bit of value on Lynch to kick a goal in 1st, 2nd and 4th quarter at $10.30? I feel confident he can start the game OK.



Cross Sport multi for the weekend

Brandon Grace To Win the LIV Golf Tournament in Orlando & Riewoldt 2+ Goals @ 57.68

Leishman to Win the LIV Golf Tournament in Orlando & Tom Lynch 3+ Goals @ 105.77

 

[kicksome]

sportsbet gave me a power play price for beau mcreery for 3 goals at $16, so i couldnt resist. Also had a nibble at him for 4+ at $41

 

[targett]

Will Ash Johnson ruck or mostly play forward? Any Pies fans here?

Mcstay will pinch hit in ruck Johnson fwd

 

[targett]

brisbane are the biggest downhill home town skiers that ever ******* existed ******* ******s

But they beat Collingwood next week

 

[Veer Right]

Rioli 20+
Baker 20+
Vlaustin 20+
Lynch 3+
Hill AGS
Pies +16.5

13.00

No Short or Broad helps the defenders.

 

[Johanpetro]

Mcstay 15 touches at $6.50 on 365. More ruck time more disposals? Had 23 touches against the tigers last year when he spent more time rucking

 

[kicksome]

wild throw at the stumps

Jack graham

34

Jack Graham

Age

26

Ht

181cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.7

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

6.8

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

6.3

5star

CL

1.8

4star

D

11.8

3star

K

5.3

2star

HB

6.5

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

4.2

5star

CL

1.2

4star

D

14.0

4star

K

6.0

3star

HB

8.0

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

7.0

5star

CL

3.2

5star

, plays his 100th game tonight and is named in the forward line. Has kicked 4 goals before and even kicked 3 in the tiges grand final win over adelaide.

AGS $2,75
2+ $14
3+ $67

all at pointsbet

 

[HTPunter]

wild throw at the stumps

Jack graham, plays his 100th game tonight and is named in the forward line. Has kicked 4 goals before and even kicked 3 in the tiges grand final win over adelaide.

AGS $2,75
2+ $14
3+ $67

all at pointsbet

Also don’t mind this if he goes to Daicos, as he will look to make him work both ways