AFL 2023 - AFL Round 4

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Ben Brown out.

Surely good news for the Petty train.
 
Ben Brown out.

Surely good news for the Petty train.

christoph waltz nod GIF
 

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PointsBet Stat Multiplier , looked at data in the last 3 years. Stat Multiplier= Goals x Kicks x Handballs spreads.

Some reasoning behind the tips tonight, using $1 staking system.


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Neale OVER 76, last season his line was around the 212-248 range, so IM happy to take him here given he scored a goal last week.

Zac Bailey OVER 79, like Neale last season, he was a much higher line last season around the 139-163 range. I have him pencilled in for maybe a goal or two tonight.

Ashcroft OVER 73, the issue with him isnt possession, just weather he can convert his chances, which he should maybe get a look or 2 in front of goal.

McCluggage OVER 53, like Neale and Bailey, line last season was around the 129-151 mark before games. Its a low line to play, given his average is around 108 or so.

Hipwood OVER 41, with no proper ruck for Collingwood tonight, I sense the talls from Brisbane to get their hands on a bit more. Its a play against the averages but Im happy to go the over here.

McCarthy OVER 40, I can see him chipping in with his 2 goals tonight and doing his usually possession collection.

Tom Mitchell OVER 82, the highest of all lines here . There might be better value backing him around $3 or so for anytime goalscorer .

Adams UNDER 70, this seems a tad given he has only gone above 70 , 5 times in his past 35 matches.

The rest are NO PLAYS, although I got the feeling De Goey can score his 2 goals or so tonight, so avoided the UNDER on him despite the averages saying he is around the 112 mark.

I also sense Nick Daicos and Josh Daicos both have a goal or two combined in them tonight, so ignored that one.
 

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