AFL 2023 - AFL Round 5 part 2

[balmainforever]

 

[GROTTO]

SB BYO: Mihocek, Elliott & Ginnivan to combine for 1+ goals in every quarter - 1u @ $3.90

tailed thats an awesome bet.

 

[fpm84]

Congrats to anyone who got the Cameron x4 Hawkins x4 Close x4 Allen x4 Waterman x4 multi

 

[_ASP3X]

Sidebottom
Elliott
Mihocek
1u @ $7.94

Sidebottom 2+ - 0.5u @ $23

 

[GROTTO]

Congrats to anyone who got the Cameron x4 Hawkins x4 Close x4 Allen x4 Waterman x4 multi

Thats a retirement bet.

 

[NYRB]

AFL Stat Multiplier Spreads for West Coast and Geelong (Goals x Kicks x Handballs). Stats based on last 3 seasons. Tips using the $1 staking system and some reason behind each bet. Odds courtesy of PointsBet.

View attachment 1662073


UNDER 252 Jeremy Cameron- high line for a player who averages 4.18 handballs a game over the last 3 seasons. The last goal from him late last week got me in the red but im prepared to chance myself on the under on him again here.

OVER 51 Mitch Duncan- remember that game where he kicked 4 goals against the Eagles a couple of seasons back

OVER 71 Isaac Smith- will get his chances and it was only a poster from him last week , that cost me a return of some sort from him.

OVER 33 Tuohy- a play based on averages. Over the last 3 season has averaged 48.79.

OVER 30 Blicavs- the Eagles ruck simply suck. No Nic Nat, No Jamieson and to be honest Im not sure if this Bailey Williams will be able to keep up with the treble of: Hawkins/Blicavs and Stanley.

UNDERS 100 Stengle- has looked a bit out of form this season with a bit of premiership hangover. Got assisted a goal from Tom Hawkins last week which may have inflated his value for this week.

OVER 44 Jack Darling- you couldnt hold this guy to 2 straight games with 0 goals could you? With an average of 60 or so over the last 3 years this seems like a good bounce back game for him with him expected to play a bit more up the field to help be a target and bring the ball down as well. At $6.50 for 15+ Disposals thats also a recommended play.

OVER 22 Yeo- last weeks line was 38-45 and I do understand there is a risk, as reported by The West Australian he could be a potential matchup for Jeremy Cameron. But if things dont work out against Jeremy Cameron, he could be swung in different positions . A speculative play in case he potentially has a scoring shot or two.

OVER 25 Jake Waterman- can see him obliging with his 2 goals and averages 2.80 handballs in his last 3 seasons. 2 Goals will cover pretty sure, and 3+ or more handballs you will be in profit. Hoping with the ground a bit wet and damp from last night, there will be more ground ball collects.

OVER 21- Jai Culley- I dont reckon the Geelong midfield has been all that great in the first 3 matches and 1st half of last weeks game so far in 2023. Part of that is losing Selwood has affected their contested disposals and contested work. Jai Culley loves the rough and tumble , its a speculative play given he has goaled 1 goal from 5 games but guys like : Isaac Smith, Tom Stewart, Jack Bowes and Tanner Bruhn dont strike me as the guys that like to get their hands down and dirty.

NO PLAY Holmes

NO PLAY- Dangerfield. I can see him getting a goal but him playing a forward time is a bit of a concern on the over here.

NO PLAY Henry- I do sense there are goals in him today and could see him getting big. Statistically speaking, he has never scored that well on the multiplier. With a max multiplier of 112 in the last 3 seasons, there is more room to lose than win, going the over on him.

NO PLAY Gaff- dont see value in Gaff based on averages.

NO PLAY West- 15/17 under 23 over the past 3 seasons. Its a no from me.

NO PLAY Atkins

NO PLAY Cam Guthrie

NO PLAY Brad Close

OVER 69 Miers- going against the trend and take the overs on him. Nice even ratio of kicks to handballs with him over the last 3 seasons, 8.46 kicks: 7.12 handballs. At worst I could accept something along the lines of 8 kicks , 7 handballs and 1 goal from him. The more goals the merrier. Think without Selwood now and Geelong playing a less chip-mark slowdown style in 2023, disposals will potentially be a bit higher for him in 2023.

Result of the Stat Multiplier Tips for WCE V Geelong using $1 stakes

UNDER 252 Jeremy Cameron= -$8

OVER 51 Mitch Duncan=-$51

OVER 71 Isaac Smith=+$49

OVER 33 Tuohy=+$7

OVER 30 Blicavs=+$110

UNDERS 100 Stengle=+$92

OVER 44 Jack Darling=+$28

OVER 22 Yeo=-$22

OVER 25 Jake Waterman=+$275

OVER 21- Jai Culley=-$21


OVER 69 Miers=-$69

Net Result of the Stat Multiplier Tips for WCE V Geelong= +$390

 

[maskmcgee]

SB BYO: Mihocek, Elliott & Ginnivan to combine for 1+ goals in every quarter - 1u @ $3.90

Tailed as well in case the like wasn't enough for BloodRet

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Markov 20+ and 25+

Ash Johnson 3,4,5,6

Philipou 2,3,4

 

[maskmcgee]

Hogan you greedy grub handball it to Cadman give the kid a chance to kick 4 on debut

 

[aussierulesrules]

De Goey out

Official?

 

[_ASP3X]

Official?

Yeah, on the afl.com.au website. Out due to illness

 

[aussierulesrules]

Yeah, on the afl.com.au website. Out due to illness

 

[maskmcgee]

What a great deal boosted from $2.40 to $2.40


Odds are a complete joke regardless even on Sportsbet that same bet pays... well Josh 20+ isn't available but 20 and 25+ pays $4.50

 

[ShaunWDT]

Ginnivan would be my train I reckon, point to prove and playing for his spot every week.

 

[maskmcgee]

Will take this one though

 

[dontlimitme]

on the ginny and higgins trains tonight the little rats

 

[Selim]

Ginnivan 2,3,4,5 @ 3.33, 6.50, 29, 71

Elliott 2,3,4,5 @2.55, 5.50, 18, 55

Greshem 1,2,3,4 @1.70, 4, 11, 50

Phillipou 2,3,4 @3.40, 9.25, 31

 

[based]

holy lmao peatling

 

[Robo87]

i have no choice - sb threw me boosted odds for ginnivan 4g+
so im on a ginnivan train
ginnivan 2,3,4 @2.65,6.50,27.46 sb boosted odds.

 

[pendlebury_10]

This game stinks

 

[JonezTiges]

holy lmao peatling

Even if he kicks 3 in the second half, I'm never betting on him again. He's legit one of the worst players in the league.

 

[based]

nah you gotta think outside the box

im doubling my bet next time

 

[GROTTO]

Ginnivan 2,3,4,5 @ 3.33, 6.50, 29, 71

Elliott 2,3,4,5 @2.55, 5.50, 18, 55

Greshem 1,2,3,4 @1.70, 4, 11, 50

Phillipou 2,3,4 @3.40, 9.25, 31

Degen Im on those.

 

[toenail11]

Mihocek 3
Higgins 3
Ginnivan
@16

Ginnivan 2
Higgins 2
Mihocek 2
Hill
Owens
@11.50


Ginnivan 3-5
Johnson 2-5
Higgins 3-5
Gresham 2-5
N.Daicos 2-3

 

[Its not the coach]

Elliott 3+ @4 Pointsbet

 

[GROTTO]

Ginnivan would be my train I reckon, point to prove and playing for his spot every week.

I can see his team mates helping him out today.