AFL 2023 - AFL Round 6

[balmainforever]

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Hahahaha he’s been playing FWD and Will for us haha

 

[dontlimitme]

lord for 3/4/5 on SB 5.6/15/51

 

[anonymoose]

Why the hell didn’t Ollie lord play Easter weekend?

 

[FadingTheFave]

Think both Lord & Francis are unders TBH. Some weeks you just have to sit tight..

 

[dontlimitme]

Think both Lord & Francis are unders TBH. Some weeks you just have to sit tight..

if there's ever a chance with lord surely its as 50 point favourites at a day port game with no dixon

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Think both Lord & Francis are unders TBH. Some weeks you just have to sit tight..

365 been giving horrible odds for first gamer forwards all season

Apart from Cadman and he turned out to be shit

 

[FadingTheFave]

if there's ever a chance with lord surely its as 50 point favourites at a day port game with no dixon

I get what you're saying but he had 5 touches for a goal in the SANFL last week. A bit of a step up based off that performance.

 

[dontlimitme]

I get what you're saying but he had 5 touches for a goal in the SANFL last week. A bit of a step up based off that performance.

yeah but their team must be shit they lost their first game 124-46 and the second 70-53

now plays for port as 50 point faves at home

 

[dontlimitme]

also kicked 1.2 in the 80 point hiding first game

 

[maskmcgee]

Josh Dunkley

5

Josh Dunkley

Age

28

Ht

191cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.8

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

11.3

5star

M

4.3

4star

T

5.8

5star

CL

3.2

5star

D

20.7

5star

K

7.0

3star

HB

13.7

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

5.3

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

14.2

4star

K

7.2

3star

HB

7.0

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

4.0

5star

CL

1.4

4star

25+ is $2.50, the best value of the top 50 average disposal gatherers, offer $0.11 cents per average disposal, 1 cent higher than the next best

 

[demon_fanatic]

Think Port vs Wc 177.5 tab is a tad low, its up at 181.5 b365 and fine weather and Port should have no trouble here playing fast footy and Eagles don't seem too interested or have the players right now to stop scoring from teams with talent... as long as it isn't close late it should stay fairly free flowing the whole way..

 

[Johanpetro]

Surely Francis plays down back this week? Swans literally have no backline

 

[FadingTheFave]

S. Walsh 1+ $3.50 TAB

Had 39% CBA last week with 5 disposals I50. Is much shorter elsewhere.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Surely Francis plays down back this week? Swans literally have no backline

Forward been there all season.

Fox plays on Cameron
Blakey on Hawkins (whoever we put on could be bad)

Mills on the 3rd tall maybe Rohan or whoever they have named

 

[Atavistic]

Josh Dunkley 25+ is $2.50, the best value of the top 50 average disposal gatherers, offer $0.11 cents per average disposal, 1 cent higher than the next best

Is that at a particular book or did you imagine those odds?

 

[maskmcgee]

Is that at a particular book or did you imagine those odds?

As it turns out my spreadsheet inexplicably completely broke somehow the first time i sorted it, but fear not I have now sorted it correctly and found even better value

Lachlan Ash - GWS - Season average 23.2 - 25+ $2.75, 11.9¢ per average disposal
Isaac Smith - Geelong - Season average 23.4 - 25+ $2.50, 10.7¢ per average disposal is the next best
Nick Daicos is the worst in the top 50 with $1.08 odds meaning a measly 3¢ per average disposal
Dunkley as is 20th best, $1.78 at 7.5¢

20+ is Ash again, $1.55, 6.7¢ per average disposal ahead of Hunter Clark, $1.46 at 6.2¢

30+ is Isaac Smith, $7 at 29.9¢, ahead of Ash, $5.75 at 24.8¢

35+ is Smith again, $31 at $1.32 per disposal, miles ahead of Sicily at 77¢

Clayton Oliver 40+ is 12.1¢ per average disposal, Ash 25+ 11.9¢

 

[_ASP3X]

Bulldogs 1-39
Over 142.5
$50 @ $3 (SB Free Hit)

Walters
Weightman
Bont
Brayshaw
1u @ $9.75 (PB)

 

[bulletride]

Going to have a crack at Teakle for goals too, should get opportunities against that WC side and he kicked 8 straight from 4 games in the SANFL last year so at least he makes the most of his opportunities.

PB
2+ $12
3+ $51

 

[X_box_X]

TAB going with Braeden Campbell again for 15+

 

[freo_leo29]

Going to have a crack at Teakle for goals too, should get opportunities against that WC side and he kicked 8 straight from 4 games in the SANFL last year so at least he makes the most of his opportunities.

PB
2+ $12
3+ $51

I'm on him too and then my brother said he has been training in defense, hope he is wrong, someone dig on the port board

 

[RedRooter]

Lycett dropped. I'd assume Teakle will mainly play ruck.

 

[bulletride]

I'm on him too and then my brother said he has been training in defense, hope he is wrong, someone dig on the port board

Had a quick browse of the Port board earlier and they seem to think he played down back last two weeks more out of necessity but will play forward/ruck in the AFL.

 

[freo_leo29]

Francis odds are garbo

1.90 ags ffs

 

[dontlimitme]

odds kinda hit a wall this week, books have caught on

 

[ferrisb]

Some value 'safe' bets this week^.

Looking at SB odds and matches played in 2022 and 2023

Looking for players who have hit a really high % of matches of 15+ and 20+. Obviously these are going to be low odds, but looking for ones where the odds aren't as low as they should be.



* Notes:

• O'Meara: has been attending 52% of CBAs at Freo, down on 61% at Hawks in 2022#
• Hewett: only two misses were the last two weeks. He is recovering from a hand injury
• Houston: Has lots of 15s and 16s (near misses) in this time
• I ignored matches where players came on as sub. Can't remember what I did for coming off as sub and/or injuries

^ Obviously real degens don't bet on things at $1.15. But even $1.15 can be handy when multi-ing with 6+ goal trains
# Obviously real degens know this as we have wasted silly money on O'Meara trains this year