AFL 2023 - AFL Round 7
- Thread starter balmainforever
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anonymoose
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- Dec 9, 2022
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That multi either has wrong odds or teams lol
ferrisb
Brownlow Medallist
Did some research on Toby
His odds look way over to me.
Incredibly, he has kicked at least one goal in every match bar one since 2021*. 38/39 strike rate for AGS. Guessing that would be the best strike rate in the league.
Extrapolated from that, fair odds would be $1.03. SB is offering $1.16. That looks like easy money to me (famous last words).
In theory, the odds are more generous the further you go up (scroll across on mobile)
| Team | Player | Metric | Odds | Data | Matches | Success | Success Rate (actual) | Success Rate (implied by odds) | Fair odds | Actual Odds | Value |
| GWS | Greene | AGS | $1.16 | 2021-2023 | 39 | 38 | 97% | 86% | $1.03 | $1.16 | 113% |
| GWS | Greene | 2+ | $1.89 | 2021-2023 | 39 | 28 | 72% | 53% | $1.39 | $1.89 | 136% |
| GWS | Greene | 3+ | $3.90 | 2021-2023 | 39 | 16 | 41% | 26% | $2.44 | $3.90 | 160% |
| GWS | Greene | 4+ | $9.50 | 2021-2023 | 39 | 11 | 28% | 11% | $3.55 | $9.50 | 268% |
| GWS | Greene | 5+ | $26 | 2021-2023 | 39 | 3 | 8% | 4% | $13.00 | $26 | 200% |
Now you could argue that GWS are underdogs this week, so he will kick fewer goals. But Toby performs pretty well in losses too. Looking at his performance in losses since 2021, fair odds for
2/3/4/5 would be $1.44, $2.88, $3.83, $11.5, $23.
Note: implied odds are less reliable the higher the goal hurdle, as we're dealing with tiny sample sizes. All actual odds listed here are SB. Can probably get better on other platforms.
*I sort of cherry 2021 picked that as a starting point, but also before that covid-affected season and then the couple of seasons before that he spent more time in the midfield.
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- Sep 25, 2013
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- Norwich City, Detroit Pistons
He’s talkin about round 8
- May 5, 2014
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Potentially they are a bit longer than usual because he played a fair bit of midfield from all reports in Tom Green's abscence (33% of CBAs compared to previous high of 12% - discounting R2 where Kelly missed and he once again played a bit more through there).
Has been pinch hitting through the midfield all year a bit under Kingsley's watch, but very minimally really.
With Green coming back, I guess you can expect Greene to be back playing closer to the role he traditionally has.
anonymoose
Rookie
- Dec 9, 2022
- 39
- 22
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- Adelaide
- Sep 25, 2013
- 15,525
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- Sydney
- Other Teams
- Norwich City, Detroit Pistons
Ah true lol. Line is only -7.5 for port game
- Moderator
- #60
-12.5u last week doing the 2u, 1u, .5u, .25u, .1u strategy... so ebbs & flows.
Some potential matchup trends to exploit:
BL vs FRE
Big forwards against Freo have gone:
Rd 2: Larkey 4.0
Rd 3: Allen 3.3, Darling 3.2
Rd 4: Walker 4.0
Rd 5: King 2.0
Rd 6: Naughton 3.2, Lobb 1.3, Ugle-Hagan 0.3
Daniher
2+ $1.44
3+ $2.45
4+ $4.90
5+ $11
6+ $26
SYD vs GWS
Smaller forwards against GWS this year have gone:
Rd 1: Rachele 3.1, Rankine 2.5
Rd 2: Waterman 4.2, Cripps 3.2
Rd 3: Motlop 2.0, Owies 2.0
Rd 4: Stringer 4.6
Rd 5: Greene 3.0
Rd 6: Cameron 7.2
Papley
2+ $1.85
3+ $3.75
4+ $8.75
5+ $23
6+ $81
Heeney
2+ $2
3+ $4.40
4+ $11
5+ $34
MEL vs NM
Smaller forwards against North have gone:
Rd 1: Ryan 3.0
Rd 2: Frederick 1.2, Walters 2.1
Rd 3: Brockman 3.1, Greene 2.2
Rd 4: Motlop 2.1, Durdin 1.2
Rd 5: Cameron 4.1
Rd 6: Ainsworth 2.1, Humphrey 2.1
Pickett
2+ $1.48
3+ $2.50
4+ $5.10
5+ $11.50
WC vs CARL
Big forwards against WC this year have gone:
Rd 1: Larkey 6.0
Rd 2: Hogan 3.4
Rd 3: Amiss 2.1
Rd 4: McDonald 4.1
Rd 5: Hawkins 4.1, Cameron 4.1
Rd 6: Finlayson 5.2
McKay
2+ $1.40
3+ $2.30
4+ $4.60
5+ $10
6+ $23
ESS vs GEEL
Smaller forwards against Geelong have gone:
Rd 1: De Goey 3.0, Hill 3.0, McReery 2.0, McInness 2.1
Rd 2: Owies 3.0
Rd 3: Lukosius 5.2
Rd 4: Breust 3.1
Rd 5: Waterman 4.1
Rd 6: Hayward 2.0, Papley 1.1
Langford
2+ $2.45
3+ $6
4+ $18
5+ $71
Smaller forwards against Ess this year have gone:
Rd 1: Breust 3.1
Rd 2: Ainsworth 1.2, Jeffrey 1.2
Rd 3: Butler 4.0, Higgins 4.0
Rd 4: Greene 2.2, Daniels 1.1
Rd 5: Fritsch 2.2, Pickett 2.2, Melksham 2.1
Rd 6: Ginnivan 2.2, McCreery 2.0
Close
2+ $4
3+ $13
4+ $46
RICH vs GC
Smaller forwards against GC this season have gone:
Rd 1: Papley 2.2, Heeney 1.2
Rd 2: Langford 5.2, Menzie 2.0, Guelfi 2.0
Rd 3: Rohan 2.0
Rd 4: Higgins 5.1
Rd 5: Walters 4.0, Schultz 3.2
Rd 6: Curtis 0.3, Zurhaar 1.1
Cumberland
2+ $1.69
3+ $3.25
4+ $7.25
5+ $18
Some potential matchup trends to exploit:
BL vs FRE
Big forwards against Freo have gone:
Rd 2: Larkey 4.0
Rd 3: Allen 3.3, Darling 3.2
Rd 4: Walker 4.0
Rd 5: King 2.0
Rd 6: Naughton 3.2, Lobb 1.3, Ugle-Hagan 0.3
Daniher
2+ $1.44
3+ $2.45
4+ $4.90
5+ $11
6+ $26
SYD vs GWS
Smaller forwards against GWS this year have gone:
Rd 1: Rachele 3.1, Rankine 2.5
Rd 2: Waterman 4.2, Cripps 3.2
Rd 3: Motlop 2.0, Owies 2.0
Rd 4: Stringer 4.6
Rd 5: Greene 3.0
Rd 6: Cameron 7.2
Papley
2+ $1.85
3+ $3.75
4+ $8.75
5+ $23
6+ $81
Heeney
2+ $2
3+ $4.40
4+ $11
5+ $34
MEL vs NM
Smaller forwards against North have gone:
Rd 1: Ryan 3.0
Rd 2: Frederick 1.2, Walters 2.1
Rd 3: Brockman 3.1, Greene 2.2
Rd 4: Motlop 2.1, Durdin 1.2
Rd 5: Cameron 4.1
Rd 6: Ainsworth 2.1, Humphrey 2.1
Pickett
2+ $1.48
3+ $2.50
4+ $5.10
5+ $11.50
WC vs CARL
Big forwards against WC this year have gone:
Rd 1: Larkey 6.0
Rd 2: Hogan 3.4
Rd 3: Amiss 2.1
Rd 4: McDonald 4.1
Rd 5: Hawkins 4.1, Cameron 4.1
Rd 6: Finlayson 5.2
McKay
2+ $1.40
3+ $2.30
4+ $4.60
5+ $10
6+ $23
ESS vs GEEL
Smaller forwards against Geelong have gone:
Rd 1: De Goey 3.0, Hill 3.0, McReery 2.0, McInness 2.1
Rd 2: Owies 3.0
Rd 3: Lukosius 5.2
Rd 4: Breust 3.1
Rd 5: Waterman 4.1
Rd 6: Hayward 2.0, Papley 1.1
Langford
2+ $2.45
3+ $6
4+ $18
5+ $71
Smaller forwards against Ess this year have gone:
Rd 1: Breust 3.1
Rd 2: Ainsworth 1.2, Jeffrey 1.2
Rd 3: Butler 4.0, Higgins 4.0
Rd 4: Greene 2.2, Daniels 1.1
Rd 5: Fritsch 2.2, Pickett 2.2, Melksham 2.1
Rd 6: Ginnivan 2.2, McCreery 2.0
Close
2+ $4
3+ $13
4+ $46
RICH vs GC
Smaller forwards against GC this season have gone:
Rd 1: Papley 2.2, Heeney 1.2
Rd 2: Langford 5.2, Menzie 2.0, Guelfi 2.0
Rd 3: Rohan 2.0
Rd 4: Higgins 5.1
Rd 5: Walters 4.0, Schultz 3.2
Rd 6: Curtis 0.3, Zurhaar 1.1
Cumberland
2+ $1.69
3+ $3.25
4+ $7.25
5+ $18
Adding 2.5u Geelong ML/ Port ML (R8) $2.30 TAB
StringyDog
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Taking a stab at Baker on chance he plays forward, was thrown forward in last quarter last week, Broad comes back into backline this week and Rioli out up forward
AGS/2/3/4 @ 3.3/19/101/1000 b365
AGS/2/3/4 @ 3.3/19/101/1000 b365
Long Shot Louie
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- Aug 23, 2022
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100%. Great stuff. I couldn’t believe the odds when I saw them. Good too see that this data backs up what I intuitively thought in that the odds for the higher goal stations was even better then the very good odds for 2+. Has kicked a bag of 7 in that 39 games as well so I would think that the odds of $101 for 6 on SB is way overs as well. Seems to be a motivation based player as well, for instance that bag of 7 was against the Dogs who we know the Giants have a rivalry with. You’d think Toby gets up and about for his first Battle of the Bridge as Captain.
Yeah the increased midfield minutes last week is probably the reason for the price increase. I’m pretty certain that your correct in that he’ll be playing his traditional forward role this week with Green back in the side. Callan Ward is also out which helps Tobys role because Ward has been playing a half forward type role where he’s been averaging around 2 shots per game.
Long Shot Louie
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- Aug 23, 2022
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According to Damien Barret: No Rampe(bulging disc) or Mccartins for the Swans this week.
This in addition to Fox being out with concussion, who has been doing his best in their absence.
I’ve looked into the weather a bit and it looks like it should be alright until a bit later in the day but you can never really know with the BOM.
Good idea to load up on the Giants forwards mentioned in this thread. I think the books have given us a gift here.
This in addition to Fox being out with concussion, who has been doing his best in their absence.
I’ve looked into the weather a bit and it looks like it should be alright until a bit later in the day but you can never really know with the BOM.
Good idea to load up on the Giants forwards mentioned in this thread. I think the books have given us a gift here.
- May 5, 2014
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Going to be absolutely pissing with rain most likely: Moore Park Rainfall Forecast, NSW 2021 - WillyWeather
Hogan did have his best game of the year last year in the wet though (22 disposals/ 2.2).
GotGameButNoName
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- Apr 3, 2023
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Bailey Fritsch has gone 39/40. But your point stands.
Long Shot Louie
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1. I don’t believe that this Sydney side with their outs should be 4 goal favourites.
2. The players that represent great value in this game are Hogan(Matchup,form,odds,scope) and Toby(odds are well overs) for the reasons outlined in detail in previous posts in this thread. No one is recommending doing freestyle goal trains on every Giants forward.
3. I don’t personally believe that this game will be Samson Ryan level wet but even if it is wet I don’t think that it will be the be all end all factor. If it is wet it could even make it harder for Sydney to protect their undersized defence by dropping players back in a team defence fashion because they will be reluctant to take players out of the contest in a heavily contested wet weather game for fear of being killed in the middle, which they did indeed against Geelong.
Indeed. Plays in front, hard to move, strong hands. I don’t think any Swans defender has the bulk to move him.
- Moderator
- #69
Players who have cleared the disposal target 100% of the games they have played, sorted by their average disposals. Odds via SB.
Charlie 6
Curnow 6
Cameron 6
$10 to win $32K Lads
Can’t lose
Curnow 6
Cameron 6
$10 to win $32K Lads
Can’t lose
fpm84
Brownlow Medallist
I’ve just gone the exact same multi I did last week which cashed during the third quarter:
Hawkins 4+
Cameron 4+
Close AGS
Henry AGS
@22.76 (boosted) PB
- Aug 16, 2009
- 1,499
- 3,070
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- Essendon
Yep I've taken Hawkins & Cameron goal in each quarter @ $235 SB. I've had the same bet the last two rounds and they have come close. We don't have a matchup for Hawkins at the best of times and this will be a bit of a makeshift backline. Could see it getting very ugly.
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On the Tomahawk train to destroy us as per usual, esp now Laverde’s out. If Zerk goes to Jez, it’s lambs to the slaughter as to who man’s Toma.
He’s gone 4,6,4 last 3 v Ess even with Lav playing…
4+ $6.20
5+ $15
6+ $41
NEDS
He’s gone 4,6,4 last 3 v Ess even with Lav playing…
4+ $6.20
5+ $15
6+ $41
NEDS
- May 20, 2016
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glances at ash johnson odds
brent daniels had his best game last week kicking 4.1 - with some of the sydney backline still in doubt, it would be rude not to have a go at him at these odds
2+ $4
3+ $11
4+ $50
b365
2+ $4
3+ $11
4+ $50
b365
