Trades 2023 Fantasy Round 8 Trades

[Balsam]

If there was any viable rookie alternative (and there may still be) I'd go them over Atkins, but until teams drop, I think I have to go Atkins.

Everything suggests Binns or Fahey are the only real hopes for decent rookie debuts...

 

[Coasters7]

Feels like there's a few key decisions people have to make this week. Myself included, and all others stem from the yes/no assessment people make on the below three players. Feels like a real sliding doors week. Trying to organise my thoughts and summarise the risk/reward/factors, figured I'd share in case it helped others.

FYI, I was leaning towards Setterfield out for Perryman and Rivers out for Sinclair, but now organising the thoughts below, it feels like Fiorini in the worst event will still be serviceable and not a liability, so I'm leaning back towards him.

Decision 1: Rory Atkins - 386k, PA 45, BE 0. W2 bye. 5x 60s: +113k, 5x 70s: +166k, 5x 80s: +209k
Upside:

• Was selected last week for a reason. Then did well. Unlikely a coach picks a bloke if he doesn't see a use, and then changes his mind.
• Good bye
• Has a clear body of work historically of being a 75 guy

Downside:

• So outside that it almost relies on them doing well, and they've got a hard run coming up
• History of being a bit fringe and flaky, and could be a couple of weak ones away from a dropping, which ends up him being a constable-esque problem
• 9 defender/wing rotations (Ballard/Collins, Lemmens/Long, Powell/Macpherson, Atkins/Ellis/Weller) in the side last week, which is 1-2 more than you'd expect unless Weller keeps playing onball (or Fiorini does and vacates a second wing). Plus, very small, so someone has to go if they need to go taller. This week a good test.
• Sharp & Hollands playing VFL who are direct competitors for a that outside wing role, Farrar/Andrew/Graham competing defensively, and Flanders for an onball rotation which could cause a shuffle. A good argument selecting any of them (maybe bar Flanders) could be at his expense.

Best result: Averages 80 from here, keeps his spot, can hold him through his favourable bye and get 7 weeks out of him, and can trade him out post bye at ~680k (+295k)
Average result: Averages 65-70 in a 4 game stretch, gets subbed once, maybe dropped after a month. Gains +132k in that month @65, but can't use him thru byes
Worst case: Has a 45 this week, omitted next week, we're 30k better but it's Constable again

Decision 2: Brayden Fiorini - 559k, PA 66, BE 29. W2 bye. 5x 65s: +25k, 5x 70s: +104k, 5x 95s: +184k
Upside:

• Correlation between Touk going out, and him posting his first big score in a long time. And played a really strong game
• History of being an elite fantasy accumulator when things go his way - 105 ppg in 2019 (9 games, 57% CBAs)
• Last year's numbers aren't as bad as they look. Both fanfooty and footywire count his sub on game, and unused medisub game, as part of the sample. Actually went at 76.4 in the 12 games he played
• 2020-2023, 12 games in a >40% CBA role (avg 57%), excluding starting sub games, averages 100.3
• Got some 'half-praise' from Dew in the media this week

Downside:

• That first big score in a long time came without the CBAs traditionally linked to his scoring. R8 last year he tonned off 32% CBAs, but that's it.
• He's historically been a fringe player due to IRL impact, so low JS, and a poor scorer when played in a wing/high forward role
• 2020-2023, 18 games in a <40% CBA role (avg 14%), excluding starting sub games, averages 72.2

Best result: Returns onball, averages 100 from here, can hold him through his favourable bye and get 7 weeks out of him, and can trade him out post bye at ~780k (+220k)
Average result: Touk returns early, or stays in a lower CBA role and reverts closer to type, which seems to be a 75 type. Keeps his spot, can play him through the byes, but is only 80k more by the time he's flicked
Worst case: Dew decides nope, or he spuds it up, averages 70 for another month before being dropped after his bye, we're trading him with 50k cash gen only.

Decision 3: Will Setterfield - 787k, PA 92, BE 123. W3 bye. 5x 80s: -91k, 5x 90s: -40k, 5x 100s: +15k
Upside:

• Has a good profile for scoring. Good height, gets outside chip/kick spread marks, tackles hard, wins his own ball. Should be conducive to the format
• Even at Carlton had a solid scoring record when employed as a CBA guy, went at 89 in his 17 games there with >40% CBAs between 2020-2022
• 6/7 games over 86, so just one really poor game among 6 serviceable games, and 2x 120+ games in R1/2
• Had lower CBAs on the weekend as Stringer was preferred to start. And while Stringer did well, his direct opponent at stoppages often walked the ball out early. When Setterfield was thrown back in, this stopped, and they won the second half

Downside:

• His drop in output coincides with the talk of him carrying an injury since end R2
• Already a deep CBA roster, with Merrett, Shiel and Parish all preferring it, Hobbs/Perkins developing, and Stringer capable of pinch hitting. So capable replacements if he drops off
• Stringer (offensively) excelled on the weekend, and initially did so at Stringer's expense (before Setterfield came in when Geelong flew out of the blocks). But even with that in mind, Merrett only had 38%. So something has to give.
• He's been used as a Mr. Fix it of late, dropping back when Laverde went down, playing fwd/wing to give Stringer a run Q1 on the weekend

Best result: Reclaims his CBA role, Stringer loses his, returns to early season form, averages 100, is 15k up in 5 weeks and 40k by his bye
Average result: Reverts to type from his Carlton days when he had the role, plays as a 50% CBA guy and pinch hits elsewhere and is good for 90. 40k drop next 5 and trade him out at 750k or so on his bye
Worst case: Loses the role, goes at 75 (or throws in another howler this week or next against tough oppo) and forces a trade in the next couple of weeks having lost 30-60k with that breakeven.

Other risk/reward types this week:

• Ryan Angwin as a trade in. 251k, PA: 29, BE: 2. If he goes at 50s he's got 170k cash gen in him still, but J/S is the worry
• Dylan Williams as a trade in. 305k, PA 36, BE: 7. Seems secure in that side now, 55s from here is 160k cash gen, but it's a lot to pay
• Ivan Soldo: 444k R/F, PA 52, BE 36. Nank now 4-6 weeks out. Has been a 70-75 guy leading the ruck before. If he goes at 75 next 5, +130k cash gen and +150k before his bye
• Wil Powell as a mid pricer. 597k, PA: 70, BE: 25. Seems to have a new role now that Miller out/Weller upfield. But that Richmond game was odd. 4 games at 66 before that 127, is he a fantasy guy? 5x 80s from here get you +80k, 85s through the byes get you +112k to trade out after
• Jake Stringer as a midpricer. 539k, PA: 63, BE: 36. In a mid/fwd impact role he went at 90 back half of 2021. If he does it again, he's got +165k cash gen before his bye. But it's Stringer
• Johannisen: 575k, PA 67: BE: 38. Def/Fwd is handy. Seems secure in this new role which he's averaged 81 in and historically goes at around that number. Safe 90-100k cash gen at that output before his bye.
• Hewett, Perryman, Simpkin, Brayshaw, Houston as 'fallen potential premiums'

I think this probably locks in Setterfield out imo. The absolute best case scenario he averages 100 and only holds price at which point you’re keeping him for the rest of the season anyway. Basically keeper (at least until the late rounds) or bust.

Don’t think I can gamble on that with his next 2 games and uncertainty over his fitness when he’s only 100-150k from Steele and Brayshaw

 

[Skippos]

I think this probably locks in Setterfield out imo. The absolute best case scenario he averages 100 and only holds price at which point you’re keeping him for the rest of the season anyway. Basically keeper (at least until the late rounds) or bust.

Don’t think I can gamble on that with his next 2 games and uncertainty over his fitness when he’s only 100-150k from Steele and Brayshaw

I think so too. The upside is what? 8 ppg more than he's priced at currently for the next 7 weeks and maybe 40k cash gen. When you could argue a premo you trade to could well be priced 8 ppg lower than their future output anyway.

Compared to the downside of the neutral outcome, where you're still losing a bit before you trade him, or the doomsday one, where we're losing 30-60k over the next week or two, copping the bad scores to boot, and in the same position with less options. Far more downside than the upside present.

Only real way to 'win' keeping Setterfield is if he goes out and gets a 120-130 this week (or even a 110) and 100 next (or the other way around), doesn't bleed any cash, resets his BE into a solid one, and then goes 95-100 until his bye from there.

I can't see him doing that given the opposition, venues, and ?s on role/personnel this week. Would take some balls (or being ****ed elsewhere) to hold I reckon.

 

[Skippos]

If there was any viable rookie alternative (and there may still be) I'd go them over Atkins, but until teams drop, I think I have to go Atkins.

It's pretty grim, isn't it? I've got 7 sub 250k players on the watchlist who I think are chances of getting a game short term, and being scoring relevant if they do. In order of 'how much I'd be into them':

Josh Fahey, Jaxon Binns, Kai Lohmann, Karl Worner, Josh Sinn, Luke Nankervis, Ollie Dempsey,

I also haven't given up on Angus Sheldrick, he's got what it takes, just needs Horse to give him a crack.

A few real roughies in the 200k batch who might come in, and then there's the MSD, and I guess an injury run at a club is all we need, but even if those roughies play, where's the scoring in them? Grim.

I'm genuinely watching the price drops/selection/roles on blokes like Wingard (435k), Hough (400k), Erasmus (397k), Windhager (348k), Francis (334k), Dev Robertson (327k), McLean (324k), Sexton (273k) & Kreuger (263k) as blokes who in the right circumstances could be a lot better than their price to try and find lateral value. Kreuger may well even be a play next week given the faith/confidence they seem to have on him and how much his starting price this year and price drops within have been influenced by 'freak' in game collision injuries.

 

[Shadow89]

It's pretty grim, isn't it? I've got 7 sub 250k players on the watchlist who I think are chances of getting a game short term, and being scoring relevant if they do. In order of 'how much I'd be into them':

Josh Fahey, Jaxon Binns, Kai Lohmann, Karl Worner, Josh Sinn, Luke Nankervis, Ollie Dempsey,

I also haven't given up on Angus Sheldrick, he's got what it takes, just needs Horse to give him a crack.

A few real roughies in the 200k batch who might come in, and then there's the MSD, and I guess an injury run at a club is all we need, but even if those roughies play, where's the scoring in them? Grim.

I'm genuinely watching the price drops/selection/roles on blokes like Wingard (435k), Hough (400k), Erasmus (397k), Windhager (348k), Francis (334k), Dev Robertson (327k), McLean (324k), Sexton (273k) & Kreuger (263k) as blokes who in the right circumstances could be a lot better than their price to try and find lateral value. Kreuger may well even be a play next week given the faith/confidence they seem to have on him and how much his starting price this year and price drops within have been influenced by 'freak' in game collision injuries.

Keep an eye on Jhye Clark at 286K - could be the solid rook we've all been waiting for.

If our injuries keep up, and he keeps up his good form, he'll get a good run at it and definitely will score well.

 

[Skippos]

Keep an eye on Jhye Clark at 286K - could be the solid rook we've all been waiting for.

If our injuries keep up, and he keeps up his good form, he'll get a good run at it and definitely will score well.

Do we really trust Chris Scott/Geelong to give him a run of any decent length, and if so, that isn't interrupted by sub games (both starting sub and subbed off) and just garbage roles he's not built to play? Been burnt on many a kid by them. My only ? with Dempsey if he gets a run too - the talent is so clearly there but the club don't really give them a run.

 

[Shadow89]

Do we really trust Chris Scott/Geelong to give him a run of any decent length, and if so, that isn't interrupted by sub games (both starting sub and subbed off) and just garbage roles he's not built to play? Been burnt on many a kid by them. My only ? with Dempsey if he gets a run too - the talent is so clearly there but the club don't really give them a run.

Mmmm, I'm not sure I'd go that hard on him/us. SDK and Stengle played basically every game last year. There is a lot of depth, and Dempsey is another on the cusp who could be brought in this week given Rohan's injury.

I suspect that when he does get his go, he will have earned it and he'll get a decent run. Has played both inside mid/half back this year, so both roles are good if he gets his shot.

 

[Pure Grunt]

Feels like there's a few key decisions people have to make this week. Myself included, and all others stem from the yes/no assessment people make on the below three players. Feels like a real sliding doors week. Trying to organise my thoughts and summarise the risk/reward/factors, figured I'd share in case it helped others.

FYI, I was leaning towards Setterfield out for Perryman and Rivers out for Sinclair, but now organising the thoughts below, it feels like Fiorini in the worst event will still be serviceable and not a liability, so I'm leaning back towards him.

Decision 1: Rory Atkins - 386k, PA 45, BE 0. W2 bye. 5x 60s: +113k, 5x 70s: +166k, 5x 80s: +209k
Upside:

• Was selected last week for a reason. Then did well. Unlikely a coach picks a bloke if he doesn't see a use, and then changes his mind.
• Good bye
• Has a clear body of work historically of being a 75 guy

Downside:

• So outside that it almost relies on them doing well, and they've got a hard run coming up
• History of being a bit fringe and flaky, and could be a couple of weak ones away from a dropping, which ends up him being a constable-esque problem
• 9 defender/wing rotations (Ballard/Collins, Lemmens/Long, Powell/Macpherson, Atkins/Ellis/Weller) in the side last week, which is 1-2 more than you'd expect unless Weller keeps playing onball (or Fiorini does and vacates a second wing). Plus, very small, so someone has to go if they need to go taller. This week a good test.
• Sharp & Hollands playing VFL who are direct competitors for a that outside wing role, Farrar/Andrew/Graham competing defensively, and Flanders for an onball rotation which could cause a shuffle. A good argument selecting any of them (maybe bar Flanders) could be at his expense.

Best result: Averages 80 from here, keeps his spot, can hold him through his favourable bye and get 7 weeks out of him, and can trade him out post bye at ~680k (+295k)
Average result: Averages 65-70 in a 4 game stretch, gets subbed once, maybe dropped after a month. Gains +132k in that month @65, but can't use him thru byes
Worst case: Has a 45 this week, omitted next week, we're 30k better but it's Constable again

Decision 2: Brayden Fiorini - 559k, PA 66, BE 29. W2 bye. 5x 65s: +25k, 5x 70s: +104k, 5x 95s: +184k
Upside:

• Correlation between Touk going out, and him posting his first big score in a long time. And played a really strong game
• History of being an elite fantasy accumulator when things go his way - 105 ppg in 2019 (9 games, 57% CBAs)
• Last year's numbers aren't as bad as they look. Both fanfooty and footywire count his sub on game, and unused medisub game, as part of the sample. Actually went at 76.4 in the 12 games he played
• 2020-2023, 12 games in a >40% CBA role (avg 57%), excluding starting sub games, averages 100.3
• Got some 'half-praise' from Dew in the media this week

Downside:

• That first big score in a long time came without the CBAs traditionally linked to his scoring. R8 last year he tonned off 32% CBAs, but that's it.
• He's historically been a fringe player due to IRL impact, so low JS, and a poor scorer when played in a wing/high forward role
• 2020-2023, 18 games in a <40% CBA role (avg 14%), excluding starting sub games, averages 72.2

Best result: Returns onball, averages 100 from here, can hold him through his favourable bye and get 7 weeks out of him, and can trade him out post bye at ~780k (+220k)
Average result: Touk returns early, or stays in a lower CBA role and reverts closer to type, which seems to be a 75 type. Keeps his spot, can play him through the byes, but is only 80k more by the time he's flicked
Worst case: Dew decides nope, or he spuds it up, averages 70 for another month before being dropped after his bye, we're trading him with 50k cash gen only.

Decision 3: Will Setterfield - 787k, PA 92, BE 123. W3 bye. 5x 80s: -91k, 5x 90s: -40k, 5x 100s: +15k
Upside:

• Has a good profile for scoring. Good height, gets outside chip/kick spread marks, tackles hard, wins his own ball. Should be conducive to the format
• Even at Carlton had a solid scoring record when employed as a CBA guy, went at 89 in his 17 games there with >40% CBAs between 2020-2022
• 6/7 games over 86, so just one really poor game among 6 serviceable games, and 2x 120+ games in R1/2
• Had lower CBAs on the weekend as Stringer was preferred to start. And while Stringer did well, his direct opponent at stoppages often walked the ball out early. When Setterfield was thrown back in, this stopped, and they won the second half

Downside:

• His drop in output coincides with the talk of him carrying an injury since end R2
• Already a deep CBA roster, with Merrett, Shiel and Parish all preferring it, Hobbs/Perkins developing, and Stringer capable of pinch hitting. So capable replacements if he drops off
• Stringer (offensively) excelled on the weekend, and initially did so at Stringer's expense (before Setterfield came in when Geelong flew out of the blocks). But even with that in mind, Merrett only had 38%. So something has to give.
• He's been used as a Mr. Fix it of late, dropping back when Laverde went down, playing fwd/wing to give Stringer a run Q1 on the weekend

Best result: Reclaims his CBA role, Stringer loses his, returns to early season form, averages 100, is 15k up in 5 weeks and 40k by his bye
Average result: Reverts to type from his Carlton days when he had the role, plays as a 50% CBA guy and pinch hits elsewhere and is good for 90. 40k drop next 5 and trade him out at 750k or so on his bye
Worst case: Loses the role, goes at 75 (or throws in another howler this week or next against tough oppo) and forces a trade in the next couple of weeks having lost 30-60k with that breakeven.

Other risk/reward types this week:

• Ryan Angwin as a trade in. 251k, PA: 29, BE: 2. If he goes at 50s he's got 170k cash gen in him still, but J/S is the worry
• Dylan Williams as a trade in. 305k, PA 36, BE: 7. Seems secure in that side now, 55s from here is 160k cash gen, but it's a lot to pay
• Ivan Soldo: 444k R/F, PA 52, BE 36. Nank now 4-6 weeks out. Has been a 70-75 guy leading the ruck before. If he goes at 75 next 5, +130k cash gen and +150k before his bye
• Wil Powell as a mid pricer. 597k, PA: 70, BE: 25. Seems to have a new role now that Miller out/Weller upfield. But that Richmond game was odd. 4 games at 66 before that 127, is he a fantasy guy? 5x 80s from here get you +80k, 85s through the byes get you +112k to trade out after
• Jake Stringer as a midpricer. 539k, PA: 63, BE: 36. In a mid/fwd impact role he went at 90 back half of 2021. If he does it again, he's got +165k cash gen before his bye. But it's Stringer
• Johannisen: 575k, PA 67: BE: 38. Def/Fwd is handy. Seems secure in this new role which he's averaged 81 in and historically goes at around that number. Safe 90-100k cash gen at that output before his bye.
• Hewett, Perryman, Simpkin, Brayshaw, Houston as 'fallen potential premiums'

Magnificent work. Additional downside point for Setterfield is he might get a rest for that niggle.

 

[Frederico_WA]

Everything suggests Binns or Fahey are the only real hopes for decent rookie debuts...

Also a few rookies (i.e. Chesser this week) coming back from injury that will go straight back into the team and could have a bit of cash left in them.

Yes, Chesser is a bad example.

 

[Freo_4eva]

Surely that peanut Clarkson gets rid of all the old campaigners in that team (sans Ziebull) and brings back my mate Miller Bergman for en extended run

 

[Pure Grunt]

Feels like there's a few key decisions people have to make this week. Myself included, and all others stem from the yes/no assessment people make on the below three players. Feels like a real sliding doors week. Trying to organise my thoughts and summarise the risk/reward/factors, figured I'd share in case it helped others.

FYI, I was leaning towards Setterfield out for Perryman and Rivers out for Sinclair, but now organising the thoughts below, it feels like Fiorini in the worst event will still be serviceable and not a liability, so I'm leaning back towards him.

Decision 1: Rory Atkins - 386k, PA 45, BE 0. W2 bye. 5x 60s: +113k, 5x 70s: +166k, 5x 80s: +209k
Upside:

• Was selected last week for a reason. Then did well. Unlikely a coach picks a bloke if he doesn't see a use, and then changes his mind.
• Good bye
• Has a clear body of work historically of being a 75 guy

Downside:

• So outside that it almost relies on them doing well, and they've got a hard run coming up
• History of being a bit fringe and flaky, and could be a couple of weak ones away from a dropping, which ends up him being a constable-esque problem
• 9 defender/wing rotations (Ballard/Collins, Lemmens/Long, Powell/Macpherson, Atkins/Ellis/Weller) in the side last week, which is 1-2 more than you'd expect unless Weller keeps playing onball (or Fiorini does and vacates a second wing). Plus, very small, so someone has to go if they need to go taller. This week a good test.
• Sharp & Hollands playing VFL who are direct competitors for a that outside wing role, Farrar/Andrew/Graham competing defensively, and Flanders for an onball rotation which could cause a shuffle. A good argument selecting any of them (maybe bar Flanders) could be at his expense.

Best result: Averages 80 from here, keeps his spot, can hold him through his favourable bye and get 7 weeks out of him, and can trade him out post bye at ~680k (+295k)
Average result: Averages 65-70 in a 4 game stretch, gets subbed once, maybe dropped after a month. Gains +132k in that month @65, but can't use him thru byes
Worst case: Has a 45 this week, omitted next week, we're 30k better but it's Constable again

Decision 2: Brayden Fiorini - 559k, PA 66, BE 29. W2 bye. 5x 65s: +25k, 5x 70s: +104k, 5x 95s: +184k
Upside:

• Correlation between Touk going out, and him posting his first big score in a long time. And played a really strong game
• History of being an elite fantasy accumulator when things go his way - 105 ppg in 2019 (9 games, 57% CBAs)
• Last year's numbers aren't as bad as they look. Both fanfooty and footywire count his sub on game, and unused medisub game, as part of the sample. Actually went at 76.4 in the 12 games he played
• 2020-2023, 12 games in a >40% CBA role (avg 57%), excluding starting sub games, averages 100.3
• Got some 'half-praise' from Dew in the media this week

Downside:

• That first big score in a long time came without the CBAs traditionally linked to his scoring. R8 last year he tonned off 32% CBAs, but that's it.
• He's historically been a fringe player due to IRL impact, so low JS, and a poor scorer when played in a wing/high forward role
• 2020-2023, 18 games in a <40% CBA role (avg 14%), excluding starting sub games, averages 72.2

Best result: Returns onball, averages 100 from here, can hold him through his favourable bye and get 7 weeks out of him, and can trade him out post bye at ~780k (+220k)
Average result: Touk returns early, or stays in a lower CBA role and reverts closer to type, which seems to be a 75 type. Keeps his spot, can play him through the byes, but is only 80k more by the time he's flicked
Worst case: Dew decides nope, or he spuds it up, averages 70 for another month before being dropped after his bye, we're trading him with 50k cash gen only.

Decision 3: Will Setterfield - 787k, PA 92, BE 123. W3 bye. 5x 80s: -91k, 5x 90s: -40k, 5x 100s: +15k
Upside:

• Has a good profile for scoring. Good height, gets outside chip/kick spread marks, tackles hard, wins his own ball. Should be conducive to the format
• Even at Carlton had a solid scoring record when employed as a CBA guy, went at 89 in his 17 games there with >40% CBAs between 2020-2022
• 6/7 games over 86, so just one really poor game among 6 serviceable games, and 2x 120+ games in R1/2
• Had lower CBAs on the weekend as Stringer was preferred to start. And while Stringer did well, his direct opponent at stoppages often walked the ball out early. When Setterfield was thrown back in, this stopped, and they won the second half

Downside:

• His drop in output coincides with the talk of him carrying an injury since end R2
• Already a deep CBA roster, with Merrett, Shiel and Parish all preferring it, Hobbs/Perkins developing, and Stringer capable of pinch hitting. So capable replacements if he drops off
• Stringer (offensively) excelled on the weekend, and initially did so at Stringer's expense (before Setterfield came in when Geelong flew out of the blocks). But even with that in mind, Merrett only had 38%. So something has to give.
• He's been used as a Mr. Fix it of late, dropping back when Laverde went down, playing fwd/wing to give Stringer a run Q1 on the weekend

Best result: Reclaims his CBA role, Stringer loses his, returns to early season form, averages 100, is 15k up in 5 weeks and 40k by his bye
Average result: Reverts to type from his Carlton days when he had the role, plays as a 50% CBA guy and pinch hits elsewhere and is good for 90. 40k drop next 5 and trade him out at 750k or so on his bye
Worst case: Loses the role, goes at 75 (or throws in another howler this week or next against tough oppo) and forces a trade in the next couple of weeks having lost 30-60k with that breakeven.

Other risk/reward types this week:

• Ryan Angwin as a trade in. 251k, PA: 29, BE: 2. If he goes at 50s he's got 170k cash gen in him still, but J/S is the worry
• Dylan Williams as a trade in. 305k, PA 36, BE: 7. Seems secure in that side now, 55s from here is 160k cash gen, but it's a lot to pay
• Ivan Soldo: 444k R/F, PA 52, BE 36. Nank now 4-6 weeks out. Has been a 70-75 guy leading the ruck before. If he goes at 75 next 5, +130k cash gen and +150k before his bye
• Wil Powell as a mid pricer. 597k, PA: 70, BE: 25. Seems to have a new role now that Miller out/Weller upfield. But that Richmond game was odd. 4 games at 66 before that 127, is he a fantasy guy? 5x 80s from here get you +80k, 85s through the byes get you +112k to trade out after
• Jake Stringer as a midpricer. 539k, PA: 63, BE: 36. In a mid/fwd impact role he went at 90 back half of 2021. If he does it again, he's got +165k cash gen before his bye. But it's Stringer
• Johannisen: 575k, PA 67: BE: 38. Def/Fwd is handy. Seems secure in this new role which he's averaged 81 in and historically goes at around that number. Safe 90-100k cash gen at that output before his bye.
• Hewett, Perryman, Simpkin, Brayshaw, Houston as 'fallen potential premiums'

Quick question
If Fiorini is looking 220k+ @100ppg and Soldo 150k+@ 75ppg
With 115k more trade power from Soldo, who is the greater risk return?

I’m forgetting about the round 13 bye advantage. Soldo gives me a R12 ruck to fill in for Marshall.

 

[Skippos]

Quick question
If Fiorini is looking 220k+ @100ppg and Soldo 150k+@ 75ppg
With 115k more trade power from Soldo, who is the greater risk return?

I’m forgetting about the round 13 bye advantage. Soldo gives me a R12 ruck to fill in for Marshall.

Hard to judge. I don't know Soldo that well, just looked at his historical performances when he was the primary ruck & then also when he was that AND Nank didn't play. It looks like that's probably about a 70-75 guy. If he plays as a 75% TOG, primary ruck option, I think he's pretty locked on for around that range. So that aspect is safe. Concerns are:

• He's coming off injury, and only 63% TOG last week. How long will they manage that for?
• They might even want to manage it to give Ryan bite sized chunks of time as the ruck. Could be a sub risk. Or they might even decide the Miller/Ryan combo is worth it instead
• Nank is listed as 4-6 away. The week before he was 2-4 I reckon. So might have had a setback, or could be sloppy reporting. And Nank strikes me as the kind of bloke who comes back early. But either way, that spectre looms and should kill Soldo when resolved. So how long?

IMO: Soldo has less risk on output than Fiorini, but a more clearly defined (and concluding) window where he'll provide that output. Fiorini more upside, but more potential variance, and longevity of the production is a lot more unknown. Could be 2 weeks, could be 12.

 

[mitchzz]

Chesser nearing return

Flying as the emergency this week apparently

 

[Corkintheocean]

Hard to judge. I don't know Soldo that well, just looked at his historical performances when he was the primary ruck & then also when he was that AND Nank didn't play. It looks like that's probably about a 70-75 guy. If he plays as a 75% TOG, primary ruck option, I think he's pretty locked on for around that range. So that aspect is safe. Concerns are:

• He's coming off injury, and only 63% TOG last week. How long will they manage that for?
• They might even want to manage it to give Ryan bite sized chunks of time as the ruck. Could be a sub risk. Or they might even decide the Miller/Ryan combo is worth it instead
• Nank is listed as 4-6 away. The week before he was 2-4 I reckon. So might have had a setback, or could be sloppy reporting. And Nank strikes me as the kind of bloke who comes back early. But either way, that spectre looms and should kill Soldo when resolved. So how long?

IMO: Soldo has less risk on output than Fiorini, but a more clearly defined (and concluding) window where he'll provide that output. Fiorini more upside, but more potential variance, and longevity of the production is a lot more unknown. Could be 2 weeks, could be 12.

All great chat Skippos

I'll throw in that Hardwick was firmly on the record as saying they see Ryan as a key forward not a ruck, so expect Soldo's ToG to rise in the coming weeks and for that time to be on ball.

Richmond's season is effectively gone at 1-1-5, so they may not bother rushing Nank back until after their round 15 bye to see what they have in a Soldo/Ryan combo going forward?

Lastly, the West Coast match up for rucks has been juicy all year. While I agree Soldo likely goes around 75 long term, if he can crack a 90-95 rucking against Williams, it really gets his cash gen going quite nicely.

 

[Skippos]

All great chat Skippos

I'll throw in that Hardwick was firmly on the record as saying they see Ryan as a key forward not a ruck, so expect Soldo's ToG to rise in the coming weeks and for that time to be on ball.

Richmond's season is effectively gone at 1-1-5, so they may not bother rushing Nank back until after their round 15 bye to see what they have in a Soldo/Ryan combo going forward?

Lastly, the West Coast match up for rucks has been juicy all year. While I agree Soldo likely goes around 75 long term, if he can crack a 90-95 rucking against Williams, it really gets his cash gen going quite nicely.

Yeah, I'm not against it at all. What I'm battling with re: Soldo is that while the cash gen is good, at 70-75 ppg, is he fieldable? For me, before trades, Chandler/Pedlar (72/64) loop & Cincotta/Wilmot (76/50) loop are my two weakest slots, so if I'm 'upgrading' a rookie to him, I can see a reality where in 2 weeks time, he's the bloke I'd be looking to upgrade to increase production, so either eat it or bench him, which seems a waste. Atkins at least comes a bit cheaper/perhaps could score a touch better, and Fiorini clearly has the upside to be a fieldable bloke if it goes right. For many, Soldo's output would be 21-23 in the team.

 

[Exambolor]

We have a $200ker baby

 

[freo_leo29]

We have a $200ker baby

Ffs there goes Miller Bergman tho

 

[amazingjoshy]

We have a $200ker baby

Averaging 66 in 5 VFL games fwiw

 

[Mezzoculo]

Ffs there goes Miller Bergman tho

And there is the final piece in my setterfield to Steele trade....

 

[Exambolor]

Averaging 66 in 5 VFL games fwiw

With a lack of rookies right now we may have to take that. Even if he’s a slow burn it doesn’t matter.

 

[amazingjoshy]

With a lack of rookies right now we may have to take that. Even if he’s a slow burn it doesn’t matter.

I wasn't suggesting it was bad tbh

Just giving the info

 

[Exambolor]

I wasn't suggesting it was bad tbh

Just giving the info

Oh sorry haha. All good

 

[Gold_Cat]

Feels like there's a few key decisions people have to make this week. Myself included, and all others stem from the yes/no assessment people make on the below three players. Feels like a real sliding doors week. Trying to organise my thoughts and summarise the risk/reward/factors, figured I'd share in case it helped others.

FYI, I was leaning towards Setterfield out for Perryman and Rivers out for Sinclair, but now organising the thoughts below, it feels like Fiorini in the worst event will still be serviceable and not a liability, so I'm leaning back towards him.

Decision 1: Rory Atkins

2

Rory Atkins

Age

30

Ht

185cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.9

5star

K

12.1

4star

HB

7.9

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

1.9

4star

MG

367.4

5star

D

9.0

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

0.3

1star

T

2.7

4star

MG

147.7

3star

D

14.2

4star

K

8.8

4star

HB

5.4

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

1.2

3star

MG

217.8

4star

- 386k, PA 45, BE 0. W2 bye. 5x 60s: +113k, 5x 70s: +166k, 5x 80s: +209k
Upside:

• Was selected last week for a reason. Then did well. Unlikely a coach picks a bloke if he doesn't see a use, and then changes his mind.
• Good bye
• Has a clear body of work historically of being a 75 guy

Downside:

• So outside that it almost relies on them doing well, and they've got a hard run coming up
• History of being a bit fringe and flaky, and could be a couple of weak ones away from a dropping, which ends up him being a constable-esque problem
• 9 defender/wing rotations (Ballard/Collins, Lemmens/Long, Powell/Macpherson, Atkins/Ellis/Weller) in the side last week, which is 1-2 more than you'd expect unless Weller keeps playing onball (or Fiorini does and vacates a second wing). Plus, very small, so someone has to go if they need to go taller. This week a good test.
• Sharp & Hollands playing VFL who are direct competitors for a that outside wing role, Farrar/Andrew/Graham competing defensively, and Flanders for an onball rotation which could cause a shuffle. A good argument selecting any of them (maybe bar Flanders) could be at his expense.

Best result: Averages 80 from here, keeps his spot, can hold him through his favourable bye and get 7 weeks out of him, and can trade him out post bye at ~680k (+295k)
Average result: Averages 65-70 in a 4 game stretch, gets subbed once, maybe dropped after a month. Gains +132k in that month @65, but can't use him thru byes
Worst case: Has a 45 this week, omitted next week, we're 30k better but it's Constable again

Decision 2: Brayden Fiorini

8

Brayden Fiorini

Age

27

Ht

187cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.9

5star

K

13.9

5star

HB

9.1

5star

M

4.7

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

2.9

4star

D

16.3

4star

K

11.0

4star

HB

5.3

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

1.7

3star

CL

0.7

3star

D

21.2

5star

K

10.2

4star

HB

11.0

5star

M

4.6

5star

T

4.2

5star

CL

3.2

5star

- 559k, PA 66, BE 29. W2 bye. 5x 65s: +25k, 5x 70s: +104k, 5x 95s: +184k
Upside:

• Correlation between Touk going out, and him posting his first big score in a long time. And played a really strong game
• History of being an elite fantasy accumulator when things go his way - 105 ppg in 2019 (9 games, 57% CBAs)
• Last year's numbers aren't as bad as they look. Both fanfooty and footywire count his sub on game, and unused medisub game, as part of the sample. Actually went at 76.4 in the 12 games he played
• 2020-2023, 12 games in a >40% CBA role (avg 57%), excluding starting sub games, averages 100.3
• Got some 'half-praise' from Dew in the media this week

Downside:

• That first big score in a long time came without the CBAs traditionally linked to his scoring. R8 last year he tonned off 32% CBAs, but that's it.
• He's historically been a fringe player due to IRL impact, so low JS, and a poor scorer when played in a wing/high forward role
• 2020-2023, 18 games in a

Best result: Returns onball, averages 100 from here, can hold him through his favourable bye and get 7 weeks out of him, and can trade him out post bye at ~780k (+220k)
Average result: Touk returns early, or stays in a lower CBA role and reverts closer to type, which seems to be a 75 type. Keeps his spot, can play him through the byes, but is only 80k more by the time he's flicked
Worst case: Dew decides nope, or he spuds it up, averages 70 for another month before being dropped after his bye, we're trading him with 50k cash gen only.

Decision 3: Will Setterfield

12

Will Setterfield

Age

26

Ht

192cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.3

4star

K

9.5

4star

HB

5.8

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.6

5star

CL

1.8

4star

D

14.0

3star

K

8.9

4star

HB

5.1

3star

M

1.9

2star

T

4.4

5star

CL

2.9

4star

D

13.4

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

1.4

4star

- 787k, PA 92, BE 123. W3 bye. 5x 80s: -91k, 5x 90s: -40k, 5x 100s: +15k
Upside:

• Has a good profile for scoring. Good height, gets outside chip/kick spread marks, tackles hard, wins his own ball. Should be conducive to the format
• Even at Carlton had a solid scoring record when employed as a CBA guy, went at 89 in his 17 games there with >40% CBAs between 2020-2022
• 6/7 games over 86, so just one really poor game among 6 serviceable games, and 2x 120+ games in R1/2
• Had lower CBAs on the weekend as Stringer was preferred to start. And while Stringer did well, his direct opponent at stoppages often walked the ball out early. When Setterfield was thrown back in, this stopped, and they won the second half

Downside:

• His drop in output coincides with the talk of him carrying an injury since end R2
• Already a deep CBA roster, with Merrett, Shiel and Parish all preferring it, Hobbs/Perkins developing, and Stringer capable of pinch hitting. So capable replacements if he drops off
• Stringer (offensively) excelled on the weekend, and initially did so at Stringer's expense (before Setterfield came in when Geelong flew out of the blocks). But even with that in mind, Merrett only had 38%. So something has to give.
• He's been used as a Mr. Fix it of late, dropping back when Laverde went down, playing fwd/wing to give Stringer a run Q1 on the weekend

Best result: Reclaims his CBA role, Stringer loses his, returns to early season form, averages 100, is 15k up in 5 weeks and 40k by his bye
Average result: Reverts to type from his Carlton days when he had the role, plays as a 50% CBA guy and pinch hits elsewhere and is good for 90. 40k drop next 5 and trade him out at 750k or so on his bye
Worst case: Loses the role, goes at 75 (or throws in another howler this week or next against tough oppo) and forces a trade in the next couple of weeks having lost 30-60k with that breakeven.

Other risk/reward types this week:

• Ryan Angwin as a trade in. 251k, PA: 29, BE: 2. If he goes at 50s he's got 170k cash gen in him still, but J/S is the worry
• Dylan Williams as a trade in. 305k, PA 36, BE: 7. Seems secure in that side now, 55s from here is 160k cash gen, but it's a lot to pay
• Ivan Soldo: 444k R/F, PA 52, BE 36. Nank now 4-6 weeks out. Has been a 70-75 guy leading the ruck before. If he goes at 75 next 5, +130k cash gen and +150k before his bye
• Wil Powell as a mid pricer. 597k, PA: 70, BE: 25. Seems to have a new role now that Miller out/Weller upfield. But that Richmond game was odd. 4 games at 66 before that 127, is he a fantasy guy? 5x 80s from here get you +80k, 85s through the byes get you +112k to trade out after
• Jake Stringer as a midpricer. 539k, PA: 63, BE: 36. In a mid/fwd impact role he went at 90 back half of 2021. If he does it again, he's got +165k cash gen before his bye. But it's Stringer
• Johannisen: 575k, PA 67: BE: 38. Def/Fwd is handy. Seems secure in this new role which he's averaged 81 in and historically goes at around that number. Safe 90-100k cash gen at that output before his bye.
• Hewett, Perryman, Simpkin, Brayshaw, Houston as 'fallen potential premiums'

Fantastic post and analysis , Skippos.

Regarding Setterfield, it seemed to be Shiel and Zerrett who lost CBA’s rather than Setterfield (68%). This provides greater confidence on role. Just whether he is actually injured and will need a week off. The cash element needs to be considered , especially given the opportunities with fallen premiums.

On the basis you decide to upgrade Setterfield, who do you think presents the most value? (Not considering bye structure)
Brayshaw looks like fantastic value after a slow start confirming he’s over the injury. 70 point last half against Brisbane. Steele looks however not as cheap but wouldn’t be surprised if he goes 115+ from here. I also like Mills with the spike in CBA’s last week. Risky though.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[DynamiteDons]

Is Worpel a legit option to bring in with a rookie up to him, Averaging 102 last 3, BE of 50 and would cost just over 200k from a rook?

 

[amazingjoshy]