AFL 2024 AFL Futures

[freo_leo29]

Isn't he missing 3-4 weeks? Can still make it if he plays 19 games I think but wouldn't want to miss much more

Freo love a little white lie with their Injury list, for example, Darcy 4-5 weeks to start the season and missed like 8-10


We cycle like this
3-4 weeks
3 weeks
2-3 weeks
2 weeks
1-2 weeks
1 week
Test

And suddenly it's 7 weeks for a 3-4 week injury but it looks like they're updating us every week

 

[burge13]

Freo love a little white lie with their Injury list, for example, Darcy 4-5 weeks to start the season and missed like 8-10


We cycle like this
3-4 weeks
3 weeks
2-3 weeks
2 weeks
1-2 weeks
1 week
Test

And suddenly it's 7 weeks for a 3-4 week injury but it looks like they're updating us every week

Yeah fair enough, wouldn't rule it out if he miraculously recovers in 4 though

NBA is the worst with this. We do a draft league and some teams have 'day to day' listed against players who end up being out over a month!

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Anyone think Hawks are rough chance for the 8? Odds of 46 against 7.50 for Adelaide who are 2 points in front of them and the play each other this weekend. Shit percentage and hard to see who drops out of 8 now but we do have Richmond twice, North once and WCE once to come.

Into 2.25

 

[CarterS]

Pies evens to make the 8 and 8.50 to make the top 4, worth a nibble I reckon.

 

[sohohoho]

Pies evens to make the 8 and 8.50 to make the top 4, worth a nibble I reckon.

Have you looked at their draw or their list?

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Have you looked at their draw or their list?

Their injury list is overrated.

Most of the players on it are rookies.

Outside of McCreery, Mitchell and Mihocek, all their best 22 players are available either this week or next; and McCreery and Mitchell are 2 of their weakest starting players anyway.

Elliot is even mooted to be back this week.

I think they are just as good value as the absolute frauds Brisbane to make the top 4, who they're only half a win behind but because of typical recency bias they have the mad hype.

I think they're better than Hawthorn, Richmond, Brisbane and Melbourne, and should win all 4, then need to win 2 of Geelong, Carlton & Sydney, which is doable, but not super likely, but hey, that's why it's $9.

I salute this poster anyhow.

He has identified something outside the box that is +EV, and is using the recency bias fallacy to his benefit, unlike the fools and squares betting Brisbane for premiership at $9.

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Personally I think the top 4 remains as it is, with Essendon going 5-2 from here, which would probably mean they are pretty decent value at $3.10.

 

[CarterS]

Have you looked at their draw or their list?

Yeah and I think they're a bit overrated as factors. I'm not saying they will make the Top 4, only that I think $9 overs for it to happen. Media often overreacts and odds reflect that.

Just an opinion.

I always look at futures bets after a team loses, can find value that way sometimes.

 

[CarterS]

Their injury list is overrated.

Most of the players on it are rookies.

Outside of McCreery, Mitchell and Mihocek, all their best 22 players are available either this week or next; and McCreery and Mitchell are 2 of their weakest starting players anyway.

Elliot is even mooted to be back this week.

I think they are just as good value as the absolute frauds Brisbane to make the top 4, who they're only half a win behind but because of typical recency bias they have the mad hype.

I think they're better than Hawthorn, Richmond, Brisbane and Melbourne, and should win all 4, then need to win 2 of Geelong, Carlton & Sydney, which is doable, but not super likely, but hey, that's why it's $9.

I salute this poster anyhow.

He has identified something outside the box that is +EV, and is using the recency bias fallacy to his benefit, unlike the fools and squares betting Brisbane for premiership at $9.

Agree with everything except you calling my team frauds

 

[sohohoho]

I think they're better than Hawthorn, Richmond, Brisbane and Melbourne, and should win all 4, then need to win 2 of Geelong, Carlton & Sydney, which is doable, but not super likely, but hey, that's why it's $9.

I salute this poster anyhow.

He has identified something outside the box that is +EV, and is using the recency bias fallacy to his benefit, unlike the fools and squares betting Brisbane for premiership at $9.

its +EV for you but -EV for me.

I make them 2.30 for top 8 and 13.21 for top 4, one of the better public models out there wheelo ratings rates them 41.9% chance (2.38) for top 8.


how are Brisbane frauds btw? were they not one of the premiership faves pre season, no luck first couple months but because they're finding form now they are frauds but Collingwood aren't?
makes sense

 

[Bucking Bronco]

its +EV for you but -EV for me.

I make them 2.30 for top 8 and 13.21 for top 4, one of the better public models out there wheelo ratings rates them 41.9% chance (2.38) for top 8.


how are Brisbane frauds btw? were they not one of the premiership faves pre season, no luck first couple months but because they're finding form now they are frauds but Collingwood aren't?
makes sense

Because their price of $9 (making them the 3rd shortest priced team) is largely based off of what they were last year, not the incredibly ordinary team that they have become this year.

Just like Geelong last year (previous year's premiers) who were priced similarly almost all year despite being dog shit and never really looking likely to even make finals; and Richmond in 2021 (previous year's premiers) who comically went into the finals series as the 3rd shortest favourite despite being rubbish; Brisbane are yet another team who continue to be profiled as the team they were the previous year, not the following one where obvious considerable regression has occurred.

If they had not made the GF last year, and they were playing the way they have been this year they would be $30.

I don't give Collingwood much more of a chance of winning this year, than I do Brisbane (which I give 0), I am saying Brisbane are frauds because of the stupid love they are getting, when they realistically have no chance. At least Collingwood have been getting questioned recently and are now priced accordingly.

No luck the first month? Nah they just played good teams Carlton, Fremantle, Collingwood & Geelong and lost because they are really average, and then recently papered over the cracks with a 5 game winning streak over mid teams and bottom 4 contenders.

I take back what I said though, upon closer inspection I don't see Collingwood being able to make the top 4, they have too much catching up to do with them likely needing to win all 7 of their final games in order to do so, so my bad there.

 

[Jugada]

Yeah I’m not sure Brisbane are as much chop as the market suggests but Collingwood are in the exact same boat being heavily priced off last years form and at least Brisbane are playing pretty well right now where as the Pies are not. Not keen on either

 

[sohohoho]

Incredibly ordinary team who just happens to have the 2nd best percentage in the league.

Were dealing with plenty of injuries and other external things early on, while having their main forwards kick like absolute crap, teams were also kicking well above expectation themselves against them.

They're probably the most inform team now and market rates them 2nd or 3rd best.

They're not value at 9 bucks (make them just over this personally) but them being one of the favourites for the flag is fine and backed up with actual numbers too. It's all pretty close with those teams 3rd and below but you would rather back them over most below them I think.


Top 4 looking a strong chance of having 3 interstate teams helps too.

 

[Jugada]

Incredibly ordinary team who just happens to have the 2nd best percentage in the league.

Were dealing with plenty of injuries and other external things early on, while having their main forwards kick like absolute crap, teams were also kicking well above expectation themselves against them.

They're probably the most inform team now and market rates them 2nd or 3rd best.

They're not value at 9 bucks (make them just over this personally) but them being one of the favourites for the flag is fine and backed up with actual numbers too. It's all pretty close with those teams 3rd and below but you would rather back them over most below them I think.


Top 4 looking a strong chance of having 3 interstate teams helps too.

This isn't a point for Brisbane being unlucky its just what tends to happen when you are playing poor football and losing

 

[sohohoho]

This isn't a point for Brisbane being unlucky its just what tends to happen when you are playing poor football and losing

yes it is.
It 100% affects someones opinion on certain teams as most people are so focussed just on final margin.

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Incredibly ordinary team who just happens to have the 2nd best percentage in the league.

Were dealing with plenty of injuries and other external things early on, while having their main forwards kick like absolute crap, teams were also kicking well above expectation themselves against them.

They're probably the most inform team now and market rates them 2nd or 3rd best.

They're not value at 9 bucks (make them just over this personally) but them being one of the favourites for the flag is fine and backed up with actual numbers too. It's all pretty close with those teams 3rd and below but you would rather back them over most below them I think.


Top 4 looking a strong chance of having 3 interstate teams helps too.

That's a whole lot of excuses.

"Dealing with injuries"... Collingwood have been dealing with injuries recently too, but apparently it only counts if it's Brisbane?

"External things" - they all said that there was no truth to it, and it had no baring on their performance. Sam Wicks had sex with someone's girlfriend and Sydney were 13-1.

In form in what world? They are 2-4 at the line over their last 6 and have only beaten 1 team inside the top 8 over this stretch. In fact it's the only top 8 team they've beaten all year, and there's no guarantee that they (Port) are even a top 8 team anyway.

I respect Soho, but honestly Brisbane are not good, and are the 2024 honeypot for squares.

They will be fraud checked comprehensively by Sydney next week, and unfortunately are only 50/ 50 to make finals.

 

[sohohoho]

Any comment on their percentage?


Outside of Sydney and Carlton recently there really aren't a lot of stand out teams who anyone would trust in finals, saying they are no chance is just silly when they're around a evens to get a double chance.

Fraud teams like Essendon and Port are holding spots in the 8 atm it's really open.


Sydney should beat them, never said they were in their tier, no one is although Carlton have all the tools to be close.


Who are your top 4 teams then?

 

[sohohoho]

They will be fraud checked comprehensively by Sydney next week, and unfortunately are only 50/ 50 to make finals.

Why unfortunately?

Go back the 5 dollars for them to miss finals, this is the biggest edge posted in here by a long way.

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Any comment on their percentage?


Outside of Sydney and Carlton recently there really aren't a lot of stand out teams who anyone would trust in finals, saying they are no chance is just silly when they're around a evens to get a double chance.

Fraud teams like Essendon and Port are holding spots in the 8 atm it's really open.


Sydney should beat them, never said they were in their tier, no one is although Carlton have all the tools to be close.


Who are your top 4 teams then?

The percentage is something but I don't read into it too much.

Bulldogs had a percentage of 120 before they played Port, and some squares were using that as a reason to call them the "4th best team".

Brisbane's percentage is to an extent off the back off losing to all good teams, and then hammering Richmond in Brisbane by 119 & North when they were awful by 70 (2 of the top 10 biggest wins of the year). The Port win is worthy of some respect though for sure considering the margin and it being in Adelaide.

I lean towards the top 4 being set. I think Essendon are similar to Collingwood in 2022, where people discount them all year, but they'll just keep winning when they need to get that top 4 finish.

I only rate Sydney, Fremantle, Carlton, Essendon & Collingwood as having any real chance of winning, with realistically it being Sydney, Fremantle, Carlton, with a very strong lean to Sydney.

 

[Bucking Bronco]

I have a model that uses numerous metrics that has correctly picked a shortlist of 2 or 3 by the start of finals that has included the premier every year for the past 15 seasons.

I am very confident that the other teams I left out will not be making it.

Essendon, as a young team, I am leaving the door open for increased growth over the final 7 games. Their percentage will hopefully improve, and the key games against Fremantle, GC, Sydney and Brisbane to end the year will give them a last opportunity to prove themselves.

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Why unfortunately?

Go back the 5 dollars for them to miss finals, this is the biggest edge posted in here by a long way.

You confirmed a new bet for me:

5U - Brisbane to not make top 4 - $1.90 (365).

This is an excellent bet.

 

[burge13]

I have a model that uses numerous metrics that has correctly picked a shortlist of 2 or 3 by the start of finals that has included the premier every year for the past 15 seasons.

I am very confident that the other teams I left out will not be making it.

Essendon, as a young team, I am leaving the door open for increased growth over the final 7 games. Their percentage will hopefully improve, and the key games against Fremantle, GC, Sydney and Brisbane to end the year will give them a last opportunity to prove themselves.

This model got Dees making finals?

Hope not i bet them a few weeks ago not to and think it needs brisbane getting in tbh

 

[Bucking Bronco]

This model got Dees making finals?

Hope not i bet them a few weeks ago not to and think it needs brisbane getting in tbh

This is to be premiers.

Top 8 is a lot harder to predict, but Melbourne have the toughest run home in the competition, it is a literal murderer's row.

They're also one of the weaker teams placed between 6th and 12th, so it's pretty hard to see them making it.

 

[sohohoho]

This model got Dees making finals?

my sim has them 30% to make finals.

 

[sohohoho]

I lean towards the top 4 being set. I think Essendon are similar to Collingwood in 2022, where people discount them all year, but they'll just keep winning when they need to get that top 4 finish.

probably back Essendon top 4 then, another big edge for you.


will stop defending Brisbane as not like I am on them or betting them at current prices was just saying why they were where they are in the market.