AFL 2024 - AFL ROUND 10

[balmainforever]

 

[pacemaker]

Given a more and more even season is it really worth it betting on teams to win anymore in terms of the odds being offered for the value?

I think most of my win bets have been through player goals or fantasy markets

Ah Chee for example, Mccrae, Harmes (if I spelt them correctly) all long odds for 3+ goals.

Thoughts?

 

[Skarrz]

Essendon line is looking juicy, north aren’t going to come within 80 of them

 

[gillon]

Essendon line is looking juicy, north aren’t going to come within 80 of them

We cannot put teams away. See our percentage for reference. You’re due to eventually have a competitive game as well.

 

[NYRB]

PointsBet Exclusive Offer for Thursday Night offer of $6. Would love a game with goals but feel $6 is probably on the lower side, want a bit more for that.

Anyone can sell me the thought this clears or has a chance?

 

[pacemaker]

PointsBet Exclusive Offer for Thursday Night offer of $6. Would love a game with goals but feel $6 is probably on the lower side, want a bit more for that.

Anyone can sell me the thought this clears or has a chance?

View attachment 1987595

Yeah 1-5mm rain Thursday. Time for me to get back on the defenders bandwagon with the unders.

Editing- My bad it is in Darwin.

 

[pacemaker]

Geelong 1-39
Sydney 1-39
Collingwood 1-39
GWS 1-39
Fremantle 1-39
Port Adelaide 1-39
Brisbane
Essendon
Melbourne

$713 SB

 

[pacemaker]

Geelong
Sydney
Port
1-39

$10.11 SB

 

[sohohoho]

Given a more and more even season is it really worth it betting on teams to win anymore in terms of the odds being offered for the value?

I think most of my win bets have been through player goals or fantasy markets

Ah Chee for example, Mccrae, Harmes (if I spelt them correctly) all long odds for 3+ goals.

Thoughts?

given some of the bet slips you have posted then you should not be bothering with h2h or line markets, these markets are much deeper in volume and much harder to beat these days, I would say you definitely don't have an edge on them.


There is so much money to be paid for smaller bettors with access to all books in Aus betting AFL player markets, this is what you should be targeting while you can.

 

[taurus]

Geelong
Sydney
Port
1-39

$10.11 SB

I'm unsure about Geeolong. It's in Darwin. It's hot and steamy like Tubby Porkins' run for 10 metres. Dare say slippery too.

Geelong should bounce but I would be cautious.

 

[burge13]

I'm unsure about Geeolong. It's in Darwin. It's hot and steamy like Tubby Porkins' run for 10 metres. Dare say slippery too.

Geelong should bounce but I would be cautious.

The runner will be bringing burritos out for Porkins as he'll be losing too many kg's in the humidity

 

[FootyLad0]

The runner will be bringing burritos out for Porkins as he'll be losing too many kg's in the humidity

Hawkins won't play as he will want to break games record at Home, Jez is out with concussion protocols.

It'll be a much younger and faster forward line.
Expect Shannon Neale and maybe Shaun Mannagh to play.

 

[sohohoho]

its as much of a home game for Suns as it is on the Goldie, price indicates this though and the weekends results killed any decent value on them from a ratings point of view too.

 

[pacemaker]

I'm unsure about Geeolong. It's in Darwin. It's hot and steamy like Tubby Porkins' run for 10 metres. Dare say slippery too.

Geelong should bounce but I would be cautious.

Hawkins won't play as he will want to break games record at Home, Jez is out with concussion protocols.

It'll be a much younger and faster forward line.
Expect Shannon Neale and maybe Shaun Mannagh to play.

Hawkins out will only help Geelongs forward line. Forgot about Cameron that will be a loss and I can assume this game will start $1.90 a piece.

2 goals multi b365
Owies Long Macrae 2g
$26.50

 

[Johanpetro]

Was gonna suggest if Porkins doesn’t play and Neale misses (hurt is ankle but will prob play) J Henry may swing forward but 365 have him at $17 for 2 goals already. Wouldn’t trust him to kick multiples and I’d want the usual $30-$40 dollars that they usually have him at anyway

 

[FootyLad0]

Was gonna suggest if Porkins doesn’t play and Neale misses (hurt is ankle but will prob play) J Henry may swing forward but 365 have him at $17 for 2 goals already. Wouldn’t trust him to kick multiples and I’d want the usual $30-$40 dollars that they usually have him at anyway

Neale was listed as emergency for AFL game, he must have pulled up alright?

 

[X_box_X]

Jeremy Sharp goals: 1/2/3
Paying $2.45, $13 & $71 w B365

He kicked 2.2 at the weekend... 1.1 the week prior. Has 5/9 games this year kicking a goal.

Steele & NWM at $1.87 and $2.15 for 25+ disposals also seems good value.

 

[NYRB]

loss and I can assume this game will start $1.90 a piece.

2 goals multi b365
Owies Long Macrae 2g
$26.50

Am assuming Fin over Jack?

 

[Johanpetro]

Neale was listed as emergency for AFL game, he must have pulled up alright?

Ah really I didn’t see that

 

[pacemaker]

Am assuming Fin over Jack?

Fin

 

[NYRB]

7 legger for Round 10


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[pacemaker]

Geelong 1-24
Tyson Stengle

18

Tyson Stengle

Age

26

Ht

175cm

Wt

71kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.3

2star

K

5.8

2star

HB

3.5

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

10.3

3star

K

5.3

2star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.3

1star

T

2.0

3star

G

0.5

4star

D

8.8

3star

K

5.6

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.6

4star

G

1.6

5star

To Kick 2+ Goals
Ben Long

22

Ben Long

Age

27

Ht

186cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.9

3star

K

6.2

2star

HB

4.7

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.7

4star

MG

166.8

3star

D

12.8

3star

K

6.7

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.3

3star

MG

129.0

2star

D

13.4

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

3.2

5star

MG

223.0

4star

To Kick 2+ Goals
Sam Clohesy To Get 15+ Disposals
Zach Guthrie

39

Zach Guthrie

Age

26

Ht

188cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.0

3star

K

5.8

2star

HB

5.2

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

90.0

1star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

1.0

1star

T

1.0

2star

MG

90.0

2star

D

10.4

3star

K

3.8

2star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.6

4star

To Get 15+ Disposals
Under 180.5 Alternate Totals

$90 PB

Ben Long

22

Ben Long

Age

27

Ht

186cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.9

3star

K

6.2

2star

HB

4.7

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.7

4star

MG

166.8

3star

D

12.8

3star

K

6.7

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.3

3star

MG

129.0

2star

D

13.4

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

3.2

5star

MG

223.0

4star

2+ $5.50 been smashed to $4

Johnson 2+ $9 smashed to $6

 

[dontlimitme]

Ben Long 2+ $5.50 been smashed to $4

Johnson 2+ $9 smashed to $6

absolutely smashed

 

[pacemaker]

sholl 2+
macrae 2+
$34 SB

Also as singles macrae 2g $5.60 SB
Sholl 2g $9 PB

 

[Atavistic]

Really interested in Brisbane goalscorers this round.