balmainforever
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Don't mind Freo Port over 159.5 weather looks like it's clearing by late arvo and rain is minimal anyway.. If cats don't win by enough over Eagles and GWS Lose port may be locked into 2nd and the desperation may not be there leading to maybe less defensive efforts.. same could be said for Freo if they are aware if Carltons winning the game could turn into a bit of a flat easy intensity hitout with a few goals.. its gone to 161.5 tab..
Tab dropped the dees/pies total by 3 to 164.5 interesting... think the rain is mostly gone by game-time but maybe they think the Dees defence and past few games vs GWS/Port how well we defend the ground is going to continue... the game means not a lot really but in the end it's still a rivalry game so I guess the intensity will be there
Odds up on 365
B365 multiple goals scorers for each game up now.
Surely?
I like Hipwood 4 @ 16 versus our midget backline. 5 @ 55.
Brad Close 4 @ 16. Has a habit of kicking 3-4 against bottom four teams like North or WC.
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- May 20, 2016
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tailed the emu
ferrisb
Brownlow Medallist
If GWS lose, Port can't go up or down on the ladder.
But if GWS win, Port will need to win to secure a home final.
If Carlton win, Freo will be out of finals contention.
So GWS and/or Carlton wins will tilt the final match in Port's favour.
GWS into Carlton* into Port = $9.29 on SB. Boosted to $10.62 with power play.
You could take a (very loose) 'hedge' on Dogs x StK x Freo @ $5.71 ($6.35 boosted). Obviously there are six other combinations (ignoring draws), but I feel these are the two most likely due to the 'connection' of the events.
On reflection, the Dogs x StK x Freo seems the much safer option. *I am not convinced by Carlton playing half a VFL team. And a big win over the Weagles is pretty meaningless.
Edit: there is a reasonable chance that Dogs miss the finals if they lose. So they probably have more to play for than GWS.
But if GWS win, Port will need to win to secure a home final.
If Carlton win, Freo will be out of finals contention.
So GWS and/or Carlton wins will tilt the final match in Port's favour.
GWS into Carlton* into Port = $9.29 on SB. Boosted to $10.62 with power play.
You could take a (very loose) 'hedge' on Dogs x StK x Freo @ $5.71 ($6.35 boosted). Obviously there are six other combinations (ignoring draws), but I feel these are the two most likely due to the 'connection' of the events.
On reflection, the Dogs x StK x Freo seems the much safer option. *I am not convinced by Carlton playing half a VFL team. And a big win over the Weagles is pretty meaningless.
Edit: there is a reasonable chance that Dogs miss the finals if they lose. So they probably have more to play for than GWS.
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Saints4ever
Club Legend
- Aug 12, 2022
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Insanity
Geelong could overtake GWS and or Port with a 150 odd point win
Port could drop be low Geelong if they lose by 30 odd and Geelong win by a significant margin
lol, I do, fondly
Unfortunately, a wife, 2 kids and a ridiculous Sydney mortgage has put a stop to my more outlandish bets. Still do the occasional when I am supremely confident. Don’t really get to post unless I’m sitting on the office toilet
huge winds tonight too.. my over 170.5 i took earlier in week thinking it would be freewheeling looks cooked
hopefully the rain at least stays away or hits real late on in the night or something to keep surface dry haha.. guessing because of the stands it will just create blustery and tricky conditions for goal with the players not really knowing what the winds doing
hopefully the rain at least stays away or hits real late on in the night or something to keep surface dry haha.. guessing because of the stands it will just create blustery and tricky conditions for goal with the players not really knowing what the winds doing
- Aug 16, 2009
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Few bets I'm on this week
McVee 1/2 $4/$51 on 365. Played plenty of midfield time last week (60% CBAs) and kicked 1.1.
Stocker 1/2 $5 PB/$34 365. Tagging role last week in the midfield (76% CBAs) and kicked 0.2. Can multi the AGS on PB with something like Newman 15+ and get ~$6.90
McNeil 1/2/3 $2.05/$7/$29 on 365, Bevo suggested he would be the one to fill West's forward role.
McVee 1/2 $4/$51 on 365. Played plenty of midfield time last week (60% CBAs) and kicked 1.1.
Stocker 1/2 $5 PB/$34 365. Tagging role last week in the midfield (76% CBAs) and kicked 0.2. Can multi the AGS on PB with something like Newman 15+ and get ~$6.90
McNeil 1/2/3 $2.05/$7/$29 on 365, Bevo suggested he would be the one to fill West's forward role.
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Judd mcvee from the dee's? Kicked 1.1 and is now
2/15/91 on b365, missed the price I have
I wouldn't touch the tabtouch special on daicos brothers getting 65 touches to be honest... our wingers are actually pretty defensively accountable and Neal Bullen is named in middle and will likely be set for Nick.. Nick carried a leg injury bit of the game queens birthday but Neal Bullen still curtailed him to 15 touches.. this may help his case for goals if he's rested forward at times to break the mid tag...
I don't tip Dees often tbh as a supporter but I feel we may win this one.. Pies been up a long time now or trying to be to make finals and had 3 really emotionally charged games vs Carlton in pendles milestone, the swans loss which has cost them finals and then the Brisbane comeback last week.. this may be the week they are a tad flat?? hard to say that as Mcrae always seems to have them so wound up and ready to go but it's just a gut feeling and I feel Dees team mix is ok right now with the exception of two duds in Laurie and no effect Billings... just hope Laurie is named sub and Melksham actually plays this will make me more confident on the tip... Petty has looked a bit better in recent weeks too maybe his foot is a tad better he is actually a huge key for us as that link who can mark at wing/half forward.. he's copped a lot of crap this year but late last year before the huge foot injury he was in great form up forward kicking bags a few times... the foot injury really limits your penetration to jump etc..
For those looking for a middle it's still at 164.5 at surge/noisy/picklebet.... b365 is down to 160.5, tab 161.5... I think it'lll drop to 157.5/158.5 when the rain hits the city in an hour or so also.. so can middle the total and 1st half total.. picklebet still has first half total 80.5... bet 365 is 77.5 and it should get a tad lower too
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- May 20, 2016
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which dees player is kicking 3-4+ tonight DF
Probably Kozi off a quiet game last week or Turner with his confidence up... kicked 2 goals 4 last time when we were generally poor across the day but had chances and unsure if Pies have a pacey defender with the awareness to go to him maybe Quaynor??.
if Moore goes to Fritch i'd suggest Fritsch as he got Moore out the back a few times 2 years ago Queens Birthday.... Petty looked in better form last week but he's more of the link forward still... So if you want a tall I'd go Turner with his confidence up as you will get a better price on him than Van Rooyen yeh
I feel our forward mix may actually pose a problem for the pies tonight with the 3 talls of Petty/Van Rooyen/Turner showing signs of improvement but you got to factor in GOLD COAST WERE AWFUL last week... we will see..
ID ALSO WAIT UNTIL THE WEATHER 30-60 MINS BEFORE GAME to place your goal bets.. as if it's Legit wet you'd prob def want to prioritize the smalls Kozi/Chandler over a Turner
might be a good night for the backing heaps of behinds with the wind picking up could be quite blustery and if balls on ground could be a lot of snaps etc at goal... who offers the market I don't have sportsbet I see over 20.5 behinds 1.72 at bet365.. can't see it on TAB OR POINTSBET
- Oct 6, 2011
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Ill have a go on behinds tonight for Friday Night game. Im not sure if I can trust Petty or Schultz in front of goal either. Can ladder from 17+ up to 26+ behinds on TopSport. I went for a bit of juice for the 31+.
Over 5.5 Behinds in the 1st Qtr at @ $2.08 (1u)
31+ Behinds in the match at $19 (0.25u)
TheCandyMan
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- May 15, 2013
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Nice trap from sb so like the idiot that I am I'll be taking it
On Pixel 6 using BigFooty.com mobile app
On Pixel 6 using BigFooty.com mobile app
